• WR Cooper Kupp. Los Angeles Rams: Over the last three seasons, no NFL player has earned red-zone targets at a higher rate than Cooper Kupp, who leads the position in red-zone separation over that same time frame.
• RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers: The matchup is terrific for Jones, as the Denver Broncos rank 31st among defenses in EPA allowed per rushing play and 29th in success rate against opposing rushing attacks.
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WR Cooper Kupp. Los Angeles Rams
• The Rams may field one of the best offenses in the NFL, but quarterback Matthew Stafford has still thrown only six touchdowns this season. This is a testament to how often (and well) the team has run the ball, especially in the red zone.
• However, the Rams will be without their top two running backs in this matchup, which should further tilt them to the pass, especially as they get deep into opposing territory.
• Over the last three seasons, no NFL player has earned red-zone targets at a higher rate than Cooper Kupp, who leads the position in red-zone separation over that same time frame.
RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
• The Packers will welcome back Aaron Jones to a rushing attack that has produced a league-average success rate and expected points added (EPA).
• The matchup is terrific for Jones, as the Denver Broncos rank 31st among defenses in EPA allowed per rushing play and 29th in success rate against opposing rushing attacks.
• With the third-highest total on the board, the Packers should see plenty of red-zone opportunities where they use Jones as a runner and receiver.
Long shot: WR Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills
• New England has faced a gauntlet of WR1s this season but has limited each of those receivers in classic Belichickian fashion. However, this has led to deficiencies all across the board, as they have struggled to contain any other offensive player.
• Stefon Diggs is the Bills’ clear alpha WR1, so New England will look to slow him down. And if the past six weeks are any indication, they should have some success doing so.
• This should leave plenty of targets for the ancillary weapons, including Gabe Davis, who already has four touchdowns on the year.
• Further elevating this spot is that New England has one of the better run defenses in the NFL, and Josh Allen has run far less in the red zone than previous seasons. Facing the Patriots, Allen should be looking Davis’ way often, giving him a decent shot to find paydirt.
