[jwplayer ZKOUjn3k-ThvAeFxT]
In each of the last two years, Todd Gurley has finished as the No. 1 running back in standard fantasy football leagues, scoring more points than any other non-quarterback in the league. He’s a playmaker in the Los Angeles Rams offense, leading the league in total touchdowns the last two years.
It’s hard say where Gurley will finish this year, though.
With concerns surrounding his knee and the arrival of Darrell Henderson in the backfield, Gurley’s workload is almost certain to be reduced from the last two years. And based on simple logic, fewer touches means fewer fantasy points and a lower ceiling.
In fantasy football, it’s important to draft a Rams running back as a “handcuff” – someone who can carry the load if Gurley does miss time due to injury. It’s a strategy that can help you win your league’s championship, but deciding which backup to draft can be difficult.
Should you take Henderson because of how highly the coaches have talked about him and the way he ripped off big plays in college? Or is Malcolm Brown the safer option, based on the trust Sean McVay has in him and his ability to carry a heavier workload in the NFL?
Well, it largely depends on where you’re going to be drafting these players. If you’re considering taking Henderson in the eighth round or earlier, you should reconsider. His floor is extremely low because of Brown’s presence in the backfield, though his upside is higher because he’s a threat to score on any play; the same can’t be said about Brown.
If Henderson slips to, say, the 11th round, you should take a long look at him if you drafted Gurley already. The coaches plan to get Henderson involved as a rookie, it’s just unclear how much that’ll be. If Gurley plays 75 percent of the snaps and Brown takes 15 or more himself, that leaves very little room for Henderson, given how infrequently the Rams use more than two running backs at a time.
Henderson’s average draft position (ADP) right now is 88.5, which is around the eighth or ninth round, depending on how big your league is. Brown, on the other hand, has an ADP of 153.2 – more than five full rounds lower than Henderson.
For all we know, Brown will get more of the touches than Henderson, especially early on. Earlier this summer, McVay talked about Henderson’s room for improvement and his need to clean up little things like blitz pickup and alignment in the formation. Brown doesn’t come with those same concerns, although it could be moot when it comes to touches on offense.
It’s not as if Henderson was dominant in the preseason, either. He carried the ball 23 times for 57 yards, an average of 2.5 yards per carry with a long of 9 yards. His 26-yard catch against the Cowboys was a bright spot, but only one of the few for the rookie in the preseason.
Considering the difference in ADP and the coaches’ trust in each running back, Brown is the better value right now. He’s second in the pecking order and is likely to receive the bulk of the carries if Gurley goes down with an injury. Henderson presents great upside, but there’s far greater risk that comes with drafting him in the top eight or nine rounds of your draft.
Take Brown as one of your last picks unless Henderson drops significantly.
