HENDERSON, Nev. — Derek Carr made it official. Coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler had stopped short of explicitly stating that he wouldn’t return as Raiders starting quarterback when they benched him last month, but Carr took any doubt away Thursday when he released a statement saying goodbye to the franchise and its fan base.
☠️ pic.twitter.com/fuSOAWkwk8
— Derek Carr (@derekcarrqb) January 12, 2023
The Raiders will attempt to trade Carr, who has a no-trade clause, but may ultimately have to cut him if they can’t come to an agreement that works for all parties involved. His 2023 salary and $7.5 million of his 2024 salary become fully guaranteed on Feb. 15, so even though they can’t officially trade him until the start of the league new year March 15, that’s their deadline to figure out how they want to proceed. As long as they reach a resolution by then, they’ll free up $29.25 million by moving on from Carr unless they were to take player compensation back in a trade.
However the breakup happens, the Raiders will find themselves needing to acquire a starting quarterback this offseason. They would have in excess of $50 million of cap space after moving on from Carr, could make roster moves to create more space and can own up to 11 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft starting with the No. 7 selection, so nothing should be off the table. Here’s a breakdown exploring the most intriguing options to replace Carr.
Signing a free agent
Tom Brady is the crown jewel. He completed 66.8 percent of his passes (ninth) for 4,684 yards (third), 25 touchdowns (T-eighth) and nine interceptions (T-15th) and helped the Buccaneers make the playoffs this season. McDaniels was on the Patriots’ coaching staff for 16 of Brady’s seasons and all six of his Super Bowl wins in New England, he was Brady’s offensive coordinator for 11 seasons, and the duo spearheaded one of the NFL’s best offenses for most of that time.
Brady will be 46 years old next season, but he’s clearly still got it, knows McDaniels’ system better than any quarterback in the league and would provide an upgrade over Carr. He could return to Tampa Bay or retire but, if he’s interested in continuing to play elsewhere, he’ll easily be the top option on the open market.
Lamar Jackson is set to become an unrestricted free agent and would eclipse Brady for that title, but there’s simply no way the Ravens allow that to happen. They may not come to agreement on a contract extension, but Baltimore would then just use the franchise tag on Jackson. Geno Smith is also set to become an unrestricted free agent, but he’s coming off a Pro Bowl season with Seattle. The Seahawks will likely either give him a contract extension or use the franchise tag on him.
So, next up is Jimmy Garoppolo. McDaniels was Garoppolo’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach for his 3 1/2 seasons with the Patriots, so there’s plenty of familiarity there. He played pretty well across 11 games with the 49ers this season — he completed 67.2 percent of his passes (fifth), averaged 7.9 yards per attempt (fourth) and was second in touchdown-to-interception ratio — but he suffered a foot injury that prematurely ended his regular season, which continued a trend of him being unable to stay healthy.
Garoppolo missed 13 games in 2018, started every game in 2019 and helped the 49ers make the Super Bowl, missed 10 games in 2020, started 15 games in 2021 and missed six games this season. He’s only 31 and won’t turn 32 until November, but that lack of availability is concerning considering he’ll likely command a significant salary. Also, 49ers third-string quarterback Brock Purdy has been excellent since taking over for Garoppolo in Week 13, so it’s fair to question how much of Garoppolo’s success has been due to 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan’s system and a loaded roster.
Ryan Tannehill is another quarterback who could become available. The Titans have a look of a franchise in flux, which usually coincides with a quarterback change. Tannehill is going into the last year of his contract and is set to have a $36.6 million cap hit in 2023. He’s played well since he became the Titans’ full-time starter in 2019, but that’s still a lot of money and would likely make it difficult to swing a trade. They’ll take an $18.8 million dead hit if they cut him, but that could be something they’re willing to do if they’re set on moving on. If that happened, Tannehill would be a decent fallback option on a short-term deal.
From there, it’s a collection of below-average starters such as Daniel Jones, Andy Dalton, Jacoby Brissett, Baker Mayfield, Taylor Heinicke, Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Darnold. Brissett played his rookie season with McDaniels and the Patriots, theoretically wouldn’t need much of an acclimation period and did an admirable job starting for the Browns while Deshaun Watson was suspended this season, but he’s still a stopgap starter at best. If the Raiders consider quarterbacks in this range, then they’d have to think about just attempting to re-sign Jarrett Stidham, who will be an unrestricted free agent. He only started two games, so it was a limited sample, but he looked competent and should be relatively cheap to retain.
Trading for a veteran
The Raiders are the only team that has made it known publicly that their starting quarterback is on the trading block. Naturally, that means who is and isn’t available is unclear. Among the logical candidates, though, Aaron Rodgers and Jackson stand out from the pack.
Rodgers is under contract through 2026 but is contemplating his future after the Packers missed the playoffs this season. The 39-year-old could retire or come back to the Packers, but he could also potentially request to be traded to another team. Green Bay would take a dead-cap hit of more than $40.3 million if it trades Rodgers, but the same thing would happen if he retires. And, if the Packers wait to trade Rodgers until after June 1, they could spread the dead money between 2023 and 2024. Following that line of thinking, they would be better off trading Rodgers for assets rather than him retiring and Green Bay getting nothing in return.
Rodgers is due more than $59.5 million in 2023, so how much of that the Packers would be willing to pay is a huge factor. But the basic premise of reuniting receiver Davante Adams and Rodgers, who had a down year by his standards in 2022 but won back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and ’21, would have to be intriguing to the Raiders. At this point, however, any reading into what Rodgers wants to do would be mostly speculation.
Jackson’s situation is less complex, but still isn’t without its own layers. If the Ravens franchise-tag him, he could refuse to sign it and request a trade, similar to what Adams did with the Packers last year. NFL rules don’t allow players who sign franchise tags to be traded, but a loophole is a sign-and-trade scenario in which a player is traded and signs a contract extension with his new team. Again, that’s what Adams did to get to the Raiders. The Ravens would have no obligation to grant that sort of request from Jackson but could receive a historic collection of trade compensation if they did.
Jackson’s health, though, could hurt his trade value. He missed five games in 2021 because of an ankle injury and missed the final five regular-season games and Sunday’s playoff game against the Bengals with a knee injury. Especially since running the ball is such a big part of his game, there could be concerns about the long-term durability of the 26-year-old quarterback, who won NFL MVP in 2019.
As with Rodgers, there’s a lot of speculation involved here, as Jackson doesn’t have an agent and keeps a tight circle.
Drafting someone to start right away
The most straightforward route is to draft the quarterback of the future in the first round of April’s draft. The Raiders hold the No. 7 pick and could feasibly stay put and draft that player. They have significant draft capital this year and own all of their significant future picks, which they could put to use if they feel they need to trade up to make sure they land their preferred prospect. Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Kentucky’s Will Levis and Florida’s Anthony Richardson are projected as first-round options, but this quarterback class is also largely viewed as an eye-of-the-beholder collection of prospects with no decisive pecking order.
Whether the Raiders need to trade up to get who they want will be a situation that remains fluid into April. Putting that aside, the Raiders should be in position to draft a quarterback in the first round if they so choose and wouldn’t have to reach to do so. That player would be on a cheaper contract than any of the premier veteran quarterbacks they could acquire, which could make a difference given they have a plethora of needs to fill along the offensive line and on defense. The Raiders are taking a long-term view this offseason, and it’s easy to see them landing on this route as the best fit for that outlook.
Acquiring a veteran and drafting a rookie
Unless the Raiders swing a blockbuster trade for Jackson, they should pair any other veteran they could realistically acquire with a rookie quarterback. Brady and Rodgers are too old to be anything more than short-term solutions. Garoppolo has been injured too many times to count on him alone. The rest of the other quarterbacks mentioned who will likely be available haven’t shown enough to justify rolling with them as the long-term plan.
That doesn’t mean the Raiders would have to use their first-round pick on a quarterback, necessarily, but they would be wise to identify a prospect who could be developed for the future somewhere in the draft. There’s nothing wrong with having him sit, learn and grow behind a veteran for a year or two before taking over.
(Top photo of Tom Brady and Derek Carr: Jeff Bottari / Associated Press)
