DFS Data Dive: Hunting Week 3's best stacks

DFS Data Dive: Hunting Week 3's best stacks
  • Stack the Los Angeles Rams: Cooper Kupp is never cheap, but Matthew Stafford offers a discount at quarterback and Allen Robinson is a value.
  • High-upside RB-DST stack for Week 2: Combining Leonard Fournette and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense facing a Green Bay Packers offense facing questions.
  • Best Week 2 DFS three-player stack: The Minnesota Vikings QB-WR-TE stack offers the most value this week. Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson and Irv Smith‘s combined salaries rank seventh, yet they have the second-best projection.
Estimated reading time: 10 minutes

This analysis of DFS main-slate stacks is a variation of the methodology used in analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates. It uses the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each team’s QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE, QB-RB-WR stacks will be the highest scoring of the slate. These are some of the most popular stack combinations employed in DFS strategy.

The numbers below are harnessing the unexpected connections and reactions between players that have actually happened over the past several years and thereby points to under/overvalued stacks that won’t be identified through traditional projections and logical deduction.

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QUARTERBACK/WIDE RECEIVER STACK

QB/WR players

Team Opponent Highest % Player Pos DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary LA ARZ 8.4 Matthew Stafford QB 22.4 6,500 20.7 7,700 LA ARZ 8.4 Cooper Kupp WR 23.9 9,900 18.5 9,800 KC IND 7.8 Patrick Mahomes QB 24.9 7,900 23.2 8,700 KC IND 7.8 Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR 12.8 4,700 10.6 5,600 LAC JAX 6.4 Justin Herbert QB 25.0 7,400 23.4 8,200 LAC JAX 6.4 Keenan Allen WR 16.3 6,500 12.6 7,500 DET MIN 6.2 Jared Goff QB 15.8 5,800 14.8 7,100 DET MIN 6.2 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR 15.1 7,200 11.5 7,800 ATL SEA 5.8 Marcus Mariota QB 21.4 5,500 19.9 7,300 ATL SEA 5.8 Drake London WR 15.1 5,800 11.8 6,000 BUF MIA 5.7 Josh Allen QB 28.4 8,200 26.4 9,000 BUF MIA 5.7 Stefon Diggs WR 19.8 7,700 15.5 8,300 BLT NE 4.8 Lamar Jackson QB 22.7 8,000 21.3 8,600 BLT NE 4.8 Rashod Bateman WR 11.5 5,700 9.2 6,800 PHI WAS 4.7 Jalen Hurts QB 24.8 7,600 23.2 8,100 PHI WAS 4.7 A.J. Brown WR 15.5 7,300 12.5 8,000 LV TEN 4.7 Derek Carr QB 18.6 5,900 17.2 7,100 LV TEN 4.7 Davante Adams WR 17.2 8,400 13.4 8,700 ARZ LA 4.7 Kyler Murray QB 21.3 7,300 20.1 7,800 ARZ LA 4.7 Marquise Brown WR 13.6 6,000 10.7 7,000 NYJ CIN 4.6 Joe Flacco QB 17.8 5,300 16.5 6,800 NYJ CIN 4.6 Garrett Wilson WR 11.6 5,400 9.3 6,100 MIN DET 4.5 Kirk Cousins QB 21.9 6,700 20.3 7,600 MIN DET 4.5 Justin Jefferson WR 23.2 9,300 18.2 9,500 CIN NYJ 4.3 Joe Burrow QB 22.9 6,600 21.2 7,500 CIN NYJ 4.3 Ja’Marr Chase WR 18.9 8,100 15.1 8,500 TEN LV 4.3 Ryan Tannehill QB 18.1 5,700 17.2 7,200 TEN LV 4.3 Robert Woods WR 10.7 5,000 8.3 5,700 GB TB 3.7 Aaron Rodgers QB 20.1 6,400 18.7 7,400 GB TB 3.7 Allen Lazard WR 11.3 6,000 9.1 6,200 NO CAR 3.6 Jameis Winston QB 15.0 5,200 14.1 6,900 NO CAR 3.6 Michael Thomas WR 12.5 5,900 9.8 7,300 MIA BUF 3.1 Tua Tagovailoa QB 18.8 6,100 17.5 7,300 MIA BUF 3.1 Tyreek Hill WR 19.7 7,600 15.6 8,400 CHI HST 2.8 Justin Fields QB 17.8 5,600 16.7 7,000 CHI HST 2.8 Darnell Mooney WR 10.6 5,300 8.4 6,300 JAX LAC 2.4 Trevor Lawrence QB 18.6 5,400 17.3 7,000 JAX LAC 2.4 Christian Kirk WR 14.4 6,200 11.4 7,100 CAR NO 1.7 Baker Mayfield QB 14.4 5,200 13.5 6,600 CAR NO 1.7 D.J. Moore WR 13.1 5,600 10.4 6,400 NE BLT 1.6 Mac Jones QB 19.2 5,100 17.8 6,400 NE BLT 1.6 Jakobi Meyers WR 14.1 5,000 11.0 6,200 WAS PHI 1.3 Carson Wentz QB 17.4 6,300 16.2 7,500 WAS PHI 1.3 Terry McLaurin WR 12.4 6,400 9.8 6,900 SEA ATL 1.3 Geno Smith QB 18.7 5,000 17.5 6,300 SEA ATL 1.3 D.K. Metcalf WR 14.5 6,100 11.7 6,700 HST CHI 1.2 Davis Mills QB 16.7 5,000 15.5 6,400 HST CHI 1.2 Brandin Cooks WR 16.0 5,800 12.5 6,600 TB GB 1.2 Tom Brady QB 22.0 6,000 20.3 7,400 TB GB 1.2 Julio Jones WR 12.1 5,600 9.8 5,800 IND KC 0.7 Matt Ryan QB 17.9 5,200 16.5 6,700 IND KC 0.7 Michael Pittman Jr. WR 15.0 6,900 11.7 7,400

  Ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines entering Week 11

RUNNING BACK/DST

RB/DST players