Before you look at the chart below, be sure to read the following Category Explanation in order to better understand the details of the statistical criteria I used to judge the 2013 seasons of these two quarterbacks.
Category Explanation
1. Sack Percentage
This percentage not only includes how many times each quarterback was taken down behind the line of scrimmage by a defender, but also the number of plays that were ruled an intentional grounding. This percentage was obtained from Footballoutsiders.com.
2. True Completion Percentage
This particular completion percentage takes into account how many times each quarterback’s intended target dropped a catchable pass.
3. Touchdown Percentage
This percentage is calculated by simply dividing each quarterback’s total number of touchdown passes by their total number of pass attempts.
4. Interception Percentage
This percentage is calculated by dividing each quarterback’s total number of interceptions by their total number of pass attempts.
5. PFF Pressure Rate
This percentage is calculated by dividing the total number of sacks, hits and hurries by the total number of pass attempts. This was obtained from Profootballfocus.com.
6. Yards Per Attempt
This is simply calculated by dividing each quarterback’s total pass yards by their total number of pass attempts.
7. FO DVOA Opponent Defensive Ranking Average
Here is a metric which takes into account the defensive rankings of each quarterback’s collective opponents in 2013. Footballoutsiders.com uses a formula that compares every play to a league-average baseline that relies primarily on situational performance and productivity. As such, DVOA gives us a better idea which quarterback faced the tougher defenses according to their scheduled opponents.
8. FO DVOA Opponent Defensive Percentage Average
This calculation is similar to category number seven in that it helps us understand which quarterback experienced greater resistance according to their scheduled opponents in 2013.
9. Yards Per Attempt, Minus Yards After Catch
This is one of two new categories I added that specifically deals with yards after the catch. Arriving at this number is simply a matter of determining the average of how far past the line of scrimmage the ball traveled without factoring in how many yards the pass catcher accumulated after the catch.
10. Yards After Catch Percentage
This second new category reveals the percentage of a quarterback’s total passing yards that were purely acquired from yards after the catch.
The Numbers
Category Cam Newton Drew Brees 1.FO True Sack Percentage 7.76% 5.44% 2.True Completion Percentage 66.17% 70.9% 3.Touchdown Percentage 5.07% 6.00% 4.Interception Percentage 2.75% 1.85% 5.PFF Pressure Rate 36.94% 29.76% 6.Yards Per Attempt 7.14 7.94 7.FO DVOA Opponents Defensive Ranking Average 13.21 14.13 8.FO DVOA Opponents Defensive Percentage Average 4.13% 3.51% 9.Yards Per Attempt, Minus Yards After Catch 3.554 4.018 10.Yards After Catch Percentage 50.2% 49.4%
Interpretation of the Numbers
1. FO True Sack Percentage
One look at this sack percentage category and you can quickly deduce that Brees was the beneficiary of better protection and less long developing pass plays. But it is also important to keep in mind that Newton doesn’t take hits, hurries and sacks entirely because of shoddy protection. With the ability to extend plays comes the confidence to do so. But this sometimes leads to the Panthers’ offensive line bearing the weight of a negative play even though the tape reveals something completely different. If receivers aren’t gaining separation or Newton fails to find an open man quickly enough, then his instinct to avoid the pressure takes over, and, as a result, we become witnesses to both the spectacular and the regrettable.
2. True Completion Percentage
Brees has always been more accurate than Newton, but when you factor in dropped passes, their final 2013 completion percentage differential of 6.9% was nearly cut by a third to 4.73%. In fact, 4.4% of Newton’s pass attempts were dropped, which translates into 1 out of every 23 passes. Brees, on the other hand, only had to put up with 1 dropped pass for every 43 passes(2.3%), which is almost half the rate that Newton endured.
3. Touchdown Rate
Brees’ six percent touchdown rate is the equivalent of throwing 1 touchdown pass every 16.66 pass attempts, while Newton’s percentage converts to 1 touchdown pass every 19.71 attempts. Brees’ can thank, in no particular order, at least four primary entities for winning this category. First, he can thank his offensive line for longer periods of protection. Second, he can thank himself for throwing more accurately, albeit under less adverse conditions. Next, he should thank Jimmy Graham for being the best tight end in the NFL, which in turn frees up all of his other offensive weapons. Lastly, Brees can thank Sean Payton and his coordinators for allowing him to run an offensive scheme that many defenses have an extremely difficult time solving.
4. Interception Rate
Again, Brees takes another category and he should be expressing his gratitude toward the same quartet of entities for the same reasons listed above.
5. Pro Football Focus Pressure Rate
As you might expect, the difference between Newton and Brees’ pressure rate was somewhat notable. In fact, Newton was either hit, hurried or sacked 1 out of every 2.71 times he dropped back to pass, while Brees was only pressured every 3.36 pass plays.
6. Yards Per Attempt
Brees is seemingly proving to be the superior signal caller with another win.
7. Football Outsiders DVOA Opponents Defensive Ranking Average
At last, a category in favor of Newton, as this data reveals he faced the tougher defenses. However, the rankings don’t suggest that they were significantly better.
8. Football Outsiders DVOA Opponents Defensive Percentage Average
This stat just confirms the previous one in that Brees numbers were accumulated while playing slightly more inferior defenses.
9. Yards Per Attempt, Minus Yards After The Catch
Not much to be said here. Brees finished the season with more yards per attempt, excluding yards after the catch. But to be blunt, I’m not even sure this is a stat that can be trusted when evaluating which quarterback is better. I’ll let you hash it out in your own mind.
10. Yards After Catch Percentage
Newton and Brees were less than a single percentage point apart in this stat, which tells us that both quarterbacks pick up just around half of their total passing yards from yards gained after the catch.
A Deeper Look Into The Comparison
During the 2013 season, Brees was fortunate enough to play 10 of his 16 regular season games in a dome without the adversity presented by outdoor settings. Frankly, this is an inherent advantage and there is very little wiggle room to deviate from this reality. Every season, Brees has, at the very least, 9 dome games on his schedule, eight at home and one at Atlanta. Last year, he had one additional game indoors when the Saints traveled to St. Louis to play the Rams. The remaining six games were played outside, which gave me an opportunity to analyze the contrast between how Brees performs while facing outdoor weather conditions versus a windless, dry dome.
So I set out to see if I could make some sense of the growing perception among both players and fans that Brees struggles mightily when it comes to playing outdoors. But just before I began this endeavor, an overlooked fact dawned on this feeble mind: every game Brees doesn’t play in a dome is always a road game. Initially, this was a challenge because I was planning to look at Brees alone in a vacuum. To present evidence that proves he struggles more readily outside a dome, would be short sighted, biased and unfair in light of the fact that these same games are played on the road, which is a setting that has bothered all quarterbacks in all generations.
Upon this realization, I concluded that the only logical, honest and accurate way to compare Brees’ ten home/dome games to his six road/outdoor games would be to break down the same numbers for Newton, who had 11 home/dome games and five road/outdoor games. With that being said, let’s take a look at this data for a moment and then we’ll examine it a bit more closely on the other side.
Drew Brees
Category Dome/Home Outside/Road Differential 1.Pass Yards/Game 350.6 276.0 -74.6 2.Yards/Attempt 8.77 6.60 -2.17 3.Completion % 72.8% 62.0% -10.8% 4.Touchdown % 7.50% 3.60% -3.90% 5.Interception % 1.25% 2.80% -1.55%
Cam Newton
Category Dome/Home Outside/Road Differential 1.Pass Yards/Game 207.1 220.2 13.1 2.Yards/Attempt 7.75 6.14 -1.61 3.Completion % 65.3 55.8% -9.5% 4.Touchdown % 5.44% 4.46% -0.98% 5.Interception % 2.38% 3.35%
-0.9
1. Pass Yards Per Game
It is no surprise that Brees produces more passing yards than Newton. After all, he plays in an offense that passes more often. The notable take away from this particular comparison was the significant disparity between Brees’ passing yards at home/dome versus his road/outside games. The Saints’ field general threw for almost 75 yards less on the road, whereas Newton surprisingly finished with 13 more yards on average per game in the same setting.
2. Yards Per Attempt
Here again, Brees finished with more yards per attempt than Newton on the road/outdoors. However, the former produced over two less yards per pass attempt(2.17) in those adverse outdoor conditions, whereas the latter concluded his season with a more modest 1.61 yards less per pass attempt in his outdoor games on the road.
3. Completion Percentage
Brees may have completed the season with a better completion percentage than Newton both on the road/outside and overall, but Newton’s differential was slightly less than Brees’. This one is a push to some extent.
4. Touchdown Percentage
Brees gets blown out in this comparison. Not only did Newton finish with the better figure, but his touchdown rate was also just under one percentage point less on the road/outside. Conversely, Brees’ touchdown percentage differential was nearly four times worse than the Panthers’ franchise quarterback, which additionally translates into less than half as many touchdown passes when playing outside.
5. Interception Percentage
Again, Brees finishes with a superior interception rate, but the gap between his indoor and outdoor performances is substantially worse than Newton’s.
The Final Word
Here’s the reality: The Panthers’ field general may never reach the upper echelon of quarterbacks from a statistical standpoint. Whether we’re talking a single season or a career, Brees’ career passing numbers will probably always trump Newton’s. Even so, I’ve presented some very telling data that exposes an unquestioned reality from 2013. Newton was decidedly less overwhelmed than Brees in outdoor conditions on the road. This could very well be partially due to a natural familiarity and comfort with the settings that each of them respectively encounter the majority of their playing time during each and every season. Newton is more used to the outdoor conditions because he deals with them more often than Brees. Although I haven’t investigated the data from previous seasons, I suspect it looks somewhat similar to today’s findings.
Here are a couple more related stats: Brees and the Saints went 2-4 in those six outdoor road games, while Newton and the Panthers finished 3-2 in their five outside road games. Are you still unsure or firmly convinced about where you stand on the matter? Maybe you should also take this into consideration: In those same comparative games, the average ranking(according to football outsiders) of the defenses that Newton and Brees had to face were respectively, 9th and 13th. In other words, Newton faced the tougher defenses and still concluded the season with a better differential and also led his team to a better record.
You can call me nuts if you want to, but I unashamedly question Brees’ elite status, even if it means positioning myself firmly in the gigantic shadow of all the combined band wagon jock sniffers, pundits and talent evaluators in existence. In other words, I’m not so sure Brees belongs in the same category as Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Peyton Ma…..Oh wait! Archie Manning’s second oldest son has played the greater part of his career indoors as well. I better stop while I’m ahead.
As for which quarterback was better in 2013, I’ll let you interpret the numbers as you see fit. So who you got, CSR. Cam Newton or Drew Brees.
