It’s been a given for weeks that a quarterback will win MVP honors in the NFL this season. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers were favorites early. Cam Newton supplanted them late, with Russell Wilson giving chase down the stretch. All belong in the conversation, but Carson Palmer has been the best quarterback in the league from Week 1 through Week 16 – by a decent margin, too. He tops my MVP rankings heading into the 2015 season’s final week.
This was going to be a tougher case to argue persuasively over beers at the bar if the Panthers had not suffered their first defeat of the season Sunday. I had one of those conversations Sunday morning (minus the beers and bar) with a football fan who defaulted to Carolina’s then-unblemished record every time my case for Palmer seemed to be scoring points. This column was in the works before Atlanta handed Carolina its first defeat. It was on my mind before Palmer’s Cardinals embarrassed Green Bay, putting the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoff race on the line in Week 17.
The case for Palmer is not a complicated one to make. Simply put, Palmer has played a leading role in his team’s success more frequently than any other quarterback in the league this season. He’s not the only worthy candidate, but he’s the best one going.
I’ll begin with a quick run through my MVP ballot before focusing in on the case for Palmer.
1. Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals: Palmer hasn’t had a bad game all season while leading a dynamic passing offense. Individual and team performance line up perfectly here.
2. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers: Newton’s defense has bailed him out several times, but the reverse is also true. That complicates Newton’s candidacy.
3. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks: Like Newton, Wilson has MVP-caliber numbers over the second half of the season. He has done it without Marshawn Lynch or Jimmy Graham. But he played one of his worst games in a critical home matchup against Arizona.
4. Tom Brady, New England Patriots: Injuries at wide receiver and running back made Brady’s job much tougher over the second half of the season.
5. Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins: The NFC East champs lack a consistent ground game. Their defense is middle-of-the-pack. They got to 8-7 with a quarterback who has thrown 16 touchdown passes against two interceptions over the second half of the season. He’s no league MVP, but Cousins is worth a mention at least.
Palmer: No bad games
All the MVP candidates have put up outstanding numbers for winning teams. Unlike the others, Palmer hasn’t suffered through a statistically poor game all season. That is rare. Brady pulled it off in 2007 when put together his gold-standard season, winning the MVP. Brady posted a Total QBR score of at least 50 (roughly average on the 100-point scale) in every game that season. Brady is so far the only quarterback to accomplish that feat in the 10-year history of the metric, but Palmer is just one game away from joining him.
The strong correlation between QBR scores and winning percentages makes it possible to calculate expected wins for each quarterback. I used this method back in 2013 to project how many added victories Arizona might expect Palmer to deliver. ESPN’s analytics department used it to explain how much defensive help Wilson was getting in Seattle last season.
To calculate expected wins, we average single-game QBR scores for the season to create an expected winning percentage. We then multiply the percentage by the number of games. Someone with a 50.0 average QBR score over 16 games would expect to go 8-8, for example. Derek Carr fits that profile this season (50.1 average QBR, 7-8 record).
Because Palmer has been so consistently excellent, his average QBR score is 81.0, a tick below the 81.1 for Brady in 2007 and well ahead of the 61.7 for Newton this season. On that basis, Palmer would expect to win 81 percent of his starts this season. That works out to 12.2 expected wins in 15 games, tops in the league. Arizona is 13-2, which means Palmer’s performance lines up with the Cardinals’ performance.
Wilson is a distant second to Palmer at 10.4 expected wins this season. Newton ranks sixth at 9.3, behind Fitzpatrick (9.8), Brady (9.7) and Rodgers (9.7). The 4.7-win gap between the Panthers’ actual victories (14) and Newton’s expected victories (9.3) is by far the largest in the NFL this season. It’s a testament to Carolina’s resourcefulness, but it works against Newton’s MVP case.
Expected Wins Vs. Actual Wins
PalmerNewtonWilsonBradyCousinsQBR Average81.061.769.464.962.2Expected WIns12.29.310.49.79.3Actual Wins13149128Difference-0.8-4.7-1.6-2.3+1.3
Statistical alarm bells should be ringing in our heads to warn against confusing team success for individual performance. The alarm bells are making the case for Palmer as MVP while confirming that Newton, while phenomenal over the second half of the season, has not been as consistent as his record would suggest.
Palmer and Newton vs. the Brady Standard
The chart below ranks the single-game QBR scores for Palmer, Newton and 2007 Brady, who I’ve included as a benchmark. Brady and Palmer each account for four of the 10 highest single-game scores (all in the 90s). Newton accounts for six of the top 20, but he also owns the six lowest scores.
Best-To-Worst QBR Scores Within A Season
QBR Score Rank Within Season2007 Brady2015 Palmer2015 Newton199.899.197.3299.397.292.9397.896.886.7492.692.486.1588.487.486.0687.582.683.4785.182.471.1884.581.559.9982.280.849.51080.677.949.11174.574.742.41274.174.639.21369.768.933.91467.567.227.81559.651.919.71654.8N/AN/A
Palmer has been at 67.2 or higher in every game but one. Not even the 2007 Brady could say that (although Palmer still has one game left). Palmer was at 51.9 during a Week 4 home defeat to the St. Louis Rams. This was his worst statistical game, but the Arizona defense was more culpable in the outcome. Nick Foles, 35th and last by a wide margin in QBR this season, somehow tossed three scoring passes that day, as the Cardinals lost 24-22. The Arizona defense likewise played an outsized role in the Cardinals’ other defeat this season, allowing Steelers QB Landry Jones to complete eight passes for 168 yards and two touchdowns off the bench in Week 6.
Best case for Newton
Newton has 22 touchdown passes with only two interceptions over his past eight games, and he’s done it for the team with the NFL’s best record.
While Palmer has produced within a dynamic offensive scheme featuring a fleet of playmaking receivers, Newton has been more of a one-man show. The offense Carolina runs puts the quarterback in compromising situations to maximize his abilities as a runner. Newton must frequently take his eyes off the defense while executing option fakes. This can freeze defenders, but it also sacrifices rhythm in the passing game while making it tougher for the quarterback to read coverages.
A receiver the Cardinals let walk in 2014 (Ted Ginn Jr.) has 10 touchdown receptions playing with Newton. The Panthers’ willingness to feature Newton even on power running plays forces him to take a physical toll other quarterbacks simply could not handle. But as Jon Gruden outlined earlier this season, Newton has become more than just a physical force. His ability to read defenses before the snap has helped Carolina maximize its audible game, a huge asset.
While it’s true that unusually strong defensive performances in the first half of the season helped the Panthers beat Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Indianapolis and Jacksonville when Newton’s production was below average, this has been a two-way street for Carolina this season. Newton posted QBR scores of 80 or higher in four of the Panthers’ five worst defensive games (defined by expected points added, or EPA). Carolina went 4-0 in those games, beating the Giants, Packers and Saints (twice). The Panthers likely would have lost these games without MVP-caliber play from their quarterback.
Newton has also been especially good in clutch situations, which I’ve defined as fourth quarters and overtimes when trailing by 0-8 points. I broke down the league-wide numbers in a column last week. Newton had completed 19 of 26 passes for 291 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in these situations entering Week 16. Carolina had gone 4-0 in those games. (Note: Newton’s numbers in the clutch took a big hit Sunday. He completed 4 of 9 passes for 45 yards with one sack and a lost fumble that helped Atlanta run out the clock.)
What’s at stake in Week 17
Newton might well run away with MVP honors regardless (I am not a voter). Not long ago, my colleague Bill Barnwell half-jokingly called for an investigation if anyone other than Newton were to win the award. I wouldn’t argue against Newton so much as I’d point to Palmer as the superior candidate. He has put up similar numbers for an Arizona team that ranks No. 1 in ESPN’s Football Power Index, three spots ahead of the Panthers.
Perceptions might change if Arizona beats out Carolina for the NFC’s top playoff seed. But in order for that to happen, Arizona not only would need to win at home against Seattle, but Carolina would have to lose at home to Tampa Bay. Stranger things have happened, including Carolina winning 14 games with 9.3-win quarterback metrics. Palmer deserves a long look from MVP voters, regardless.
Sando MVP Rank
QBTD-INTRush TDPasser ratingTotal QBR1Palmer34-101106.883.12Newton33-10897.065.33Wilson31-81109.373.64Brady36-73103.165.65Cousins26-11599.267.7
