Drew Brees has not yet formally retired from the New Orleans Saints, but even his most ardent fans might now admit the future Hall of Fame quarterback can no longer lead the franchise to a Super Bowl victory. Age and injuries finally caught up with Brees after 11,272 passes totaling 85,724 yards in 305 total games across 20 NFL seasons. Now 42, Brees threw three interceptions during the Saints’ 30-20 divisional-round defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, all but certain to be his final game.

While Brees long ago secured his spot among the greats of the game, his teams won “only” one championship in an era when Tom Brady’s New England Patriots won six. Brady is now chasing a seventh Super Bowl ring after advancing to the NFC Championship Game at Brees’ expense. Legacies are fun to debate. Championships always weigh in any accounting. Yet, football is such a team game, and in Brees’ case, broader context is helpful in achieving a fuller appreciation of his tenure in New Orleans and his place among the greats.

The next time you hear someone lamenting Brees’ inability to deliver additional Super Bowl victories to New Orleans, you might not be able to change their minds. But you can know the facts.

Since Brees joined the Saints in 2006, New Orleans leads the league in offensive points per game and offensive expected points added (EPA). The Patriots are second, followed by the Green Bay Packers. No surprise there. Brady and Aaron Rodgers are natural comps for Brees as highly productive Canton-bound quarterbacks who spent long periods mostly with the same franchises and mostly with the same coaches.

Comparing the three quarterbacks straight up requires working around timelines. Brees, Brady and Rodgers have not played the same number of games. Rodgers was the last of the three to become a starter, in 2008. For the sake of comparison, the table above shows cumulative team offensive EPA in these quarterbacks’ 200 most recent starts, counting playoffs. All three quarterbacks led offenses that outperformed expectations by the equivalent of a touchdown or more per game. This is exactly what we’d expect to see for offenses led by all-time greats. But we know these quarterbacks’ teams have not fared the same, opening the door for subjective narratives to explain why. Winning is all Brady cares about, Brees and Rodgers chase stats, etc.

The situations in New Orleans, New England and Green Bay were different. Brady did, by most accounts, help the team’s roster building by accepting lower salary-cap numbers and lower short-term earnings later in his career with New England. The Saints’ defense collapsed after the NFL banned defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and suspended coach Sean Payton following its bounty investigation. Rodgers missed significant chunks of two seasons to injuries and the team declined during its final years under former general manager Ted Thompson and former coach Mike McCarthy.

The table below captures context that is frequently ignored when discussing quarterbacks. It shows cumulative team EPA on defense and special teams during the 200 most recent starts for each quarterback. The Saints cratered from 2012 through 2016, ranking 32nd in this category three times during those five seasons. New Orleans was also 31st during one of those seasons. That is how the Saints posted a 7-9 record four times in five years despite ranking no lower than fourth in offensive EPA during any of those lost seasons.

The Patriots and Buccaneers have a combined 152-48 (.760) record in Brady’s 200 most recent starts. The Packers are 132-67-1 (.663) in Rodgers’ past 200. The Saints are 127-73 (.635) with Brees in what figure to be his final 200. On average, Brady’s defense and special teams with New England and Tampa Bay have spotted him a 3.5-point advantage per game over Rodgers and a 5.3-point advantage over Brees. Applied over 200 games, that’s a 706-point edge for Brady over Rodgers and a 1,073-point advantage for Brady over Brees. Think that matters in the win column? This is how Brees’ offenses could statistically outpace the offenses led by Brady and Rodgers without the Saints winning more frequently. It’s a much more objective explanation than suggesting Brady owns some sort of clutch gene that is lacking from Brees (or from Rodgers, for that matter). It’s obviously easier to win with greater support, and EPA captures this support effectively.

The Saints have ranked among the NFL’s top eight in offensive EPA every season since Brees arrived in 2006, but by the time they got their defense and special teams performing among the upper echelon over the past couple seasons, it was too late. New Orleans ranked among the NFL’s top half in combined defensive and special-teams EPA only three times during Brees’ 15 seasons with the team. The 2009 team was 12th and won the Super Bowl. The Saints were 10th last season and sixth in 2020, but by then, Brees was on the decline and having trouble staying in the lineup. By the end of this season, Michael Thomas was a non-factor, Rodgers’ Packers were resurgent and Brady had taken up residency within the division.

Eight times over the same 15-year period, the Patriots ranked among the NFL’s top 10 in combined defensive and special-teams EPA. They reached the Super Bowl four times in those eight seasons, winning three times. They also ranked highly on offense in most of those seasons, same as the Saints. Unlike the Saints, those Patriots teams were complete. As for Rodgers’ Packers, they peaked at No. 3 in combined defensive and special-teams EPA back in 2010. Surprise, surprise … Green Bay won the Super Bowl that season.

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