Guys, it’s going to be Thanksgiving before you know it. Seriously. Look at the calendar. If you haven’t put your turkey in the oven already, you might want to think about it. Those birds can take a while to cook. In any event, with Thanksgiving Week right around the corner, I – Cody Benjamin, the man with two first names (and three, if you count the middle name) – have decided to pay my respects to John Breech, a newsletter man worthy of all our thanks, by taking the reigns on this fine Wednesday and letting him kick back and relax (and maybe get his own turkey prep underway).
This is the Pick Six newsletter. It’s time to traverse the NFL. (And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you’re signed up to receive this newsletter every day! You don’t want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around the NFL.)
We’ve got Week 11 predictions, updated playoff projections, Saints QB talk and much more:
- Today’s show: Could Jameis Winston become Saints’ long-term QB?
Brady Quinn joined the Pick Six Podcast on Wednesday, and it was a good thing he did, because Will Brinson had lots of questions about the quarterback situation in New Orleans, where Drew Brees has been swapped out for Jameis Winston while recovering from a chest injury. The most intriguing one: Does Winston have a legitimate opportunity to earn the Saints’ long-term QB job during his time filling in for Brees? Quinn, fortunately, has been through the free agent process before and relayed his own experience in forecasting Winston’s opportunity.
“Don’t you think that was the whole conversation in bringing Jameis Winston to New Orleans in the first place?” Quinn said. “That was the conversation going in, I can promise you that … That is exactly what is pitched and sold to you: This is a great opportunity here, for the long term. This is now coming to real life.”
To listen to today’s episode – and subscribe to the podcast – be sure to click here.
2. Prisco’s Picks: Eagles upset Browns, Ravens roll over Titans
Every week offers at least a few intriguing matchups, but Week 11 is particularly full of them. We’ve got the Chiefs rematching the Raiders, the Cardinals rematching the Seahawks, the Packers visiting the Colts and the Buccaneers hosting the Rams. In other words, find a good seat on the couch this week. And not only that, but check out Pete Prisco’s weekly rundown of predictions, which features some bold prognostications involving a couple of AFC North squads:
Eagles at Browns (-3)
The Eagles are playing a second straight road game and didn’t look good last week against the Giants. The Browns won a tight one in bad weather last week against the Texans by running the ball well. They will try and do that in this one, but I think the Eagles will be up to the challenge. Philadelphia’s offense will get back on track as well. The Eagles will win a close one.
Pick: Eagles 26, Browns 21
***
Titans at Ravens (-6.5)
The Ravens have offensive issues, but the best thing to fix that is this Tennessee defense. The Titans upset the Ravens in the playoffs last year, but this Titans team has major defensive issues. The Ravens had run-defense issues last week against the Patriots, which isn’t a good thing against Derrick Henry. But I think they get back on track in that area in this one. Ravens win it behind a good offensive showing.
Pick: Ravens 31, Titans 24
3. Inside the Eagles: Who’s to blame, why Pederson is key to turnaround
The Philadelphia Eagles may lead the NFC East, but we all know the truth: They are not good. That’s why Cody Benjamin (your trusty newsletter fill-in) took a deep dive into their 2020 season and assigned blame across the top of their organization. Who’s most at fault? Who can fix them? And what is the No. 1 key to a turnaround? My eyes are mostly on coach Doug Pederson.
Pederson can’t afford to just assume his team will somehow flip a switch as it always does, even if this year’s NFC East dictates that, yes, he very much can. Why? Because the Eagles will be one-and-done for a second straight year if that’s the case. Does Jim Schwartz’s defense need to be better? Of course. Does Carson Wentz need to play more – even if just mentally – like the big-money QB he is? Absolutely. What the Eagles need more than anything, however, is for their head coach to take charge.
4. Playoff chances: Cardinals, Dolphins among wild card favorites
Do you like numbers? Do you like playoff forecasts? Even if you just like one of those things, John Breech’s latest roundup of SportsLine’s postseason projections is well worth the read. The number-crunchers over there have been tracking every single team’s chances of making the playoffs, and while we already have a good idea about certain contenders making the tournament (see: Chiefs, Steelers), this exercise comes especially in handy if you’re a fan of a team on the brink.
Maybe the most interesting revelation entering Week 11: The Cardinals (75.1%) and Dolphins (71.6%), two teams without much of a recent postseason track record, are among the favorites to earn wild card bids at the end of 2020. Kyler Murray and Co. are also given just over a 25 percent chance of outright winning the NFC West, whereas Miami seems destined to wind up the in second wild card spot in the AFC. Either way, few would be upset if these two up-and-coming contenders get in the dance.
5. QB Power Rankings: Kyler Murray leapfrogs Russell Wilson
Some guy with two first names – Cody Benjamin, we think – dropped his latest rundown of all 32 starting quarterbacks on Wednesday, and boy did we get a shakeup in the top 10 entering Week 11. Not only did the ageless Tom Brady fly up six spots now that his Saints stinker is in the rear-view mirror, but none other than Kyler Murray leapfrogged fellow NFC West superstar Russell Wilson. Here’s a sneak peek at the full top 10 in my rankings, which also saw boosts for Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins and Cam Newton:
- Patrick Mahomes
- Aaron Rodgers (+1)
- Kyler Murray (+1)
- Russell Wilson (-2)
- Ben Roethlisberger
- Deshaun Watson (+1)
- Tom Brady (+6)
- Lamar Jackson
- Josh Allen
- Derek Carr (+1)
6. Teaser rankings: Chiefs are a smart bet to top Raiders
If you’re scouring the Week 11 schedule for a good teaser play, just let betting expert R.J. White be your guide. Where is he leading us this week? To Vegas, of course! Not because he likes the Raiders, though; but rather because he likes Kansas City to beat them. The Chiefs are R.J.’s top teaser in a week full of fruitful options:
The Raiders defense had a huge game last week, matching their season-long total with five turnovers while holding the Broncos to just 12 points. But the rested Chiefs are not the Broncos, and it’s hard to see a Raiders defense that ranks 28th in points allowed per drive getting many stops at all this week. Even if the Raiders offense has another big game, Patrick Mahomes should lead his team to victory in the end.
