Bottom Line

The big question with Murray is when he’ll be ready to play after December’s torn ACL. He didn’t undergo surgery until Jan. 3 and seems likely to miss the start of the season.

Whenever Murray does make it back, he’ll be playing for a new coaching staff and without WR DeAndre Hopkins.

But if he regains his rushing ability, he’ll certainly be a valuable fantasy asset. Murray has finished fifth among QBs in fantasy points per game each of the last three seasons.

He’s worth stashing as a QB2 in fantasy leagues of 12+ teams.

What We Learned Last Year

• Murray’s 2022 season ended in Week 14 with a torn ACL and associated meniscus damage in his right knee. He underwent surgery on Jan. 3.
• Murray also missed Weeks 10 and 11 with a hamstring injury.
• His scoring average in 10 healthy games ranked fifth among QBs in fantasy points per game.
• Murray brought a high weekly floor, finishing as a top-15 fantasy QB in nine of those 10 games.
• But he finished top 5 just twice, with no finish better than third.
• He had an underwhelming season as a passer. Murray’s 235.9 passing yards and 1.4 passing TDs per game were both career lows.
• He also set a career low with 6.1 yards per pass attempt. That ranked dead last among 31 qualifying QBs.
• A big culprit was his 7.2-yard average depth of throw. That was also a career low and ranked 26th among those 31 QBs.
• Murray threw a TD on just 3.6% of his passes last year. That was another career low and ranked 20th among 31 QBs.
• His Pro Football Focus passing grade plummeted from 88.1 in 2021 to 63.4 last year. That latter mark ranked 26th among 31 qualifiers.
• In Murray’s defense, WR DeAndre Hopkins missed six of Murray’s 10 games and WR Marquise Brown three. Murray, Hopkins, and Brown were only on the field together for one full game last season.
• Murray remained productive on the ground, averaging 6.6 carries, 41.5 yards, and 0.3 TDs per game.
• The per-game rushing yardage was the second best of his career and ranked sixth among QBs.
• Since entering the league in 2019, Murray ranks fifth among QBs in fantasy points per game.
• Here’s where he ranked in points per game in his first three seasons:
  • 2019: 12th
  • 2020: fifth
  • 2021: fifth

What to Expect in 2023

• Lots of updates on Murray’s recovery from that right knee injury. Former Cardinals HC Kliff Kingsbury said the day after Murray had surgery that the QB “probably” wouldn’t be ready for the start of the 2023 season. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport corroborated that statement in late January. Owner Michael Bidwill said in February that Murray should be back “earlier than this midseason.”
• We’ll stay on top of the fantasy football news here. Fantasy managers should not expect him to be available for the start of the season, though.
• He’ll play under a new coaching staff this year led by HC Jonathan Gannon and OC Drew Petzing. Gannon is the former Eagles DC. The 35-year-old Petzing spent the past 9 seasons working under Kevin Stefanski in Minnesota and then Cleveland but has no experience calling plays at any level.
• The coaching change can only be good news for Murray’s fantasy value considering how poorly Kingsbury’s tenure ended. The 2022 Cardinals ranked 21st in points, 22nd in total yards, and 29th in yards per play.
• The Cardinals released WR DeAndre Hopkins in late May. He averaged 9.1 targets, 6.3 catches, 77.0 yards, and 0.49 TDs per game across the last three seasons in Arizona.
• The Cardinals return WRs Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore. They added WR Michael Wilson in the third round of this spring’s draft and WR Zach Pascal in free agency. TE Zach Ertz, TE Trey McBride, and RB James Conner are also back – although Ertz is iffy for the start of the season after suffering a multi-ligament knee injury in November. It’s an underwhelming group of weapons.
• The Cardinals are expected to be bad. Their 4.5 win total at most sportsbooks is lowest in the league. While that could boost Murray’s passing volume, it’s not promising for his TD projection.