With each passing week of the NFL season, the number of teams that find themselves in need of better quarterback situations grows. Thankfully for all, it’s looking like a potentially elite draft year at the position.
The 2024 NFL Draft is still several months away (and the current college season isn’t quite half over yet), but we are starting to see some clarity in terms of how the quarterbacks should slot into the upcoming draft class. Unlike the past few years, there’s depth, and a few NFL franchises could wind up with some real finds — even deep into Day 3.
Based on what we know right now, here’s a shot at splitting the top QBs in the 2024 draft into buckets:
Tier 1 (Top-10 picks)
• Caleb Williams, USC• Drake Maye, North Carolina
It’s been a fascinating year for Drake Maye. His box score numbers (1,624 yards, eight TDs, four INTs) have looked pedestrian at times, and it hasn’t exactly been a smooth ride to 5-0 for No. 12 North Carolina.
However, if you’ve watched Maye’s tape, you’ve seen a player who has made some wonderful individual plays and done just about all he can to keep his team unbeaten — much of it without talented transfer wide receiver Tez Walker, whom the NCAA just declared eligible this week. Maye has been pressured a ton this season (he ranks in the top 15 among full-time starters in QB pressures, per PFF), and UNC’s offense has had to find its way.
The Tar Heels QB’s talent, though, is always there.
𝐓𝐨𝐮𝐜𝐡𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐓𝐚𝐫 𝐇𝐞𝐞𝐥𝐬!@DrakeMaye2 🤝 @bryson_nesbit pic.twitter.com/dav0UYo8go
— Carolina Football (@UNCFootball) October 7, 2023
Saturday versus Syracuse, Maye put it all on display: 442 yards and three touchdowns through the air and another 52 yards and a score on the ground.
Reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams, though, remains the likely No. 1 pick come April — he has USC at 5-0, too, despite a shaky performance in a triple-overtime win over Arizona on Saturday. Maye is the likely No. 2. It’s hard to see that changing.
Bottom line: Both quarterbacks will be starting in the NFL next year and, depending on where they go, could have a chance to be pretty good.
Tier 2 (First-round picks)
• J.J. McCarthy, Michigan• Quinn Ewers, Texas
As was the case a year ago, J.J. McCarthy will have to get through the back half of the schedule before we can stamp him (or his team) with full marks. But on arm talent and athletic traits, he’s a first-round prospect.
How high, exactly, will he deserve to go in the first round? That’s where it will get interesting. McCarthy had one bad day earlier this year, in a win over Bowling Green, but has more or less been flawless otherwise.
The thing to remember with McCarthy: He plays for Jim Harbaugh. This is not the Colorado or USC offense — McCarthy’s opportunities are limited and almost always have to come within structure, a reality that would crank up the pressure for many young QBs. Michigan’s junior passer, however, continues to handle it well while still being a threat with his legs as a passer with good size.
Read more: 2024 NFL Draft roundtable: Brock Bowers in the Top 5? Which QBs could stay in school?
Back-to-back games with a rushing TD for @jjmccarthy09 pic.twitter.com/EBEHXAYd02
— Michigan Football (@UMichFootball) October 8, 2023
McCarthy’s 125 pass attempts are the lowest of any full-time Big Ten starter. It’s the opposite for his yards per attempt (YPA), which ranks first in the Big Ten (10.3 yards per throw).
The frustrating loss to Oklahoma aside, Quinn Ewers is still right there with McCarthy. Both players have first-round arms and can make all the throws. McCarthy’s a better runner, but Ewers gets to play in a more explosive offense. Like McCarthy, Ewers is still working on being consistent, both with his play and his overall emotions in the heat of battle.
The Texas QB clearly felt rushed early in the Red River game, throwing two picks he’d like back. He also quickly settled down and nearly brought the Longhorns back for a win.
At this point, you can be fairly confident both players are first-round worthy. That said, neither is going to save a bad NFL team in a year because each still has wrinkles to iron out. QB-desperate drafters, beware.
Tier 3 (Late first-round/early Day 2)
• Jayden Daniels, LSU• Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
It’s time people pay more attention to what Jayden Daniels is doing for LSU. It helps to have WR Malik Nabers, sure, but the senior QB leads the country in PFF-graded “big-time throws” with 18 — one more than Shedeur Sanders. Only two quarterbacks have a better YPA than Daniels (10.6) this season: Michael Penix Jr. (11.2) and Williams (11.0).
Daniels is seeing the game well, competing and still improving. Would a team toward the bottom half of the first round be interested in taking a shot on him, a player who is still just 22 but has five years of college experience? It’s certainly possible.
MY GOODNESS @JayD__5
📺 ESPN pic.twitter.com/4cGevuJPoM
— LSU Football (@LSUfootball) October 7, 2023
It’s hard to say what will happen with Sanders. It’s not out of the question that he returns to Colorado for another year to finish up with superstar WR/CB Travis Hunter, make a ton of NIL money and play another season for his father.
If Sanders declares, though, could he also be a first-round pick? He has opened eyes all year with his processing, ability to adjust to what defenses are doing against him and general arm talent. The natural instincts and poise Sanders plays with are impossible to ignore. Whenever he declares, those traits will glow brighter than the question marks he’ll carry on many final scouting reports.
Tier 4 (Day 2/early Day 3)
• Bo Nix, Oregon• Michael Penix Jr., Washington• Riley Leonard, Duke• Michael Pratt, Tulane
Much like Hendon Hooker a year ago, Bo Nix and Penix are two guys who — based on all the stuff they’ve overcome to get here while still improving and winning — just can’t be counted out.
The game has slowed down for Nix. He has cut way back on his scrambles and way back on his YOLO throws and is carving people up as much in structure as out of it. If you’ve paid attention to his career, that’s impressive.
“And now a deep shot…”
46-yard connection from @BoNix10 to @TroooyyyyyyTroy
ORE 28, STAN 6 (Q3 | 8:54)#GoDucks
📺 @Pac12Network pic.twitter.com/jHGcFUbC9M
— Oregon Football (@oregonfootball) October 1, 2023
Penix, who’s reaping the benefits of an outstanding Washington offense, might win the Heisman. His numbers (1,999 yards passing, 16 TDs, two INTs and that 11.2 YPA) are bonkers. However, his accuracy has not been consistent — his extremely talented receivers help him a lot. His process and footwork can be awkward, too, as has been the case for six years now.
Still, few quarterbacks play as fearlessly as he does, and there will be NFL teams who love the way he attacks vertically. Penix might fall to Day 3 on draft weekend, but a general manager also might get itchy for his skill set as high as the third round.
Riley Leonard has struggled at times this season, and Michael Pratt has been hurt. However, both have top-end arm talent that can erase many other (legit) questions.
Tier 5 (Day 3/UDFA)
• Sam Hartman, Notre Dame• Cameron Ward, Washington State• Jordan Travis, Florida State• Devin Leary, Kentucky• Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina• DJ Uiagalelei, Oregon State• Austin Reed, Western Kentucky• Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma• Joe Milton III, Tennessee• Jalon Daniels, Kansas• Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
One guy here who will have every chance to jump into a higher bucket is DJ Uiagalelei, who has alternated stretches of brilliant and less-than-brilliant play once again this season. He is the most physically talented QB prospect in this bunch and has enough big-time throws on tape that someone could jump the line to take him earlier than many anticipate. However, at some point, things will have to look more consistent.
Dillon Gabriel is another fascinating prospect. He has put up Madden numbers in college for what feels like forever now. As people saw Saturday in Oklahoma’s win over Texas, he’s a terrific competitor and can bring so much confidence to the right system. However, he’s undersized, his arm strength isn’t great, and he still relies way too much on the RPO game to find success. The RPO is not entirely translatable to the NFL — if it’s all you’ve got, you’re not going to make it very far.
Do it yourself, DG 💪#OUDNA | 📺 ABC pic.twitter.com/conFKqYaRd
— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football) October 7, 2023
Joe Milton III’s physical talent is undeniable, but midway through his sixth season in college, so is his game-to-game (and drive-to-drive) inconsistency.
Everyone on this list might’ve looked a lot better had they wound up in a class like what we saw in 2021. Still, all these guys are absolutely worth a look.
Tier 6 (Shot at an NFL camp)
• Will Rogers, Mississippi State• KJ Jefferson, Arkansas• Kurtis Rourke, Ohio• Carson Beck, Georgia• Kyle McCord, Ohio State• Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss• Tyler Van Dyke, Miami• Will Howard, Kansas State
The better Carson Beck plays this year at Georgia (389 yards, four TDs versus Kentucky), the more he becomes a realistic draft prospect.
However, he’s also young, so going back to school feels like it would be a productive option. Several of the names at this part of the list fall in that category, especially staring down a 2024 QB class that looks so impressive at the top.
(Illustration: Sean Reilly / The Athletic; photo of Drake Maye: David Jensen / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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