The Chicago Bears have the best chance to land the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL draft, according to projections by ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). Chicago received this selection from the Carolina Panthers in an offseason trade that gave the Panthers the first pick in the 2023 draft. The Bears are followed by the New England Patriots.
There already have been three trades involving first-round picks for April’s draft. The Houston Texans own the Cleveland Browns’ pick, while the Arizona Cardinals are also in line to have two selections in Round 1. The 2024 pick the Green Bay Packers received from the New York Jets in their offseason trade for Aaron Rodgers will be a second-round selection, not a first-rounder, because Rodgers (who is out with a torn Achilles) will not play 65% of the team’s snaps this season.
Every week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games and each team’s average draft position in the simulations.
Check out the full 1-32 projection for the 2024 NFL draft (updated Dec. 12):
1. Chicago Bears (via 1-12 CAR)
Average draft position: 1.1FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 94.9%FPI chance to earn top-five pick: greater than 99.9%FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: greater than 99.9%
2. New England Patriots (3-10)
Average draft position: 3FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3%FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 92.7%FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.8%
3. Arizona Cardinals (3-10)
Average draft position: 3.4FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.9%FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 90%FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.8%
5. Washington Commanders (4-9)
Average draft position: 4.4FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.1%FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 76.3%FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 98.5%
5. New York Giants (5-8)
Average draft position: 6FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: less than 0.1%FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 49.9%FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 95.3%
6. Las Vegas Raiders (5-8)
Average draft position: 7FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: less than 0.1%FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 34%FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 88.8%
7. Chicago Bears (5-8)
Average draft position: 8.9FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: less than 0.1%FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 16.6%FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 71.1%
8. New York Jets (5-8)
Average draft position: 9FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: less than 0.1%FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 13.4%FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 71%
9. Tennessee Titans (5-8)
Average draft position: 9.1FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: less than 0.1%FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 13%FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 70.6%
10. Los Angeles Chargers (5-8)
Average draft position: 10.4FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: less than 0.1%FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 6.7%FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 56.4%
11. Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
Average draft position: 14FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.6%FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 35.3%
12. New Orleans Saints (6-7)
Average draft position: 15.1FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.5%FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 24.2%
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)
Average draft position: 15.4FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.4%FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 27.5%
14. Seattle Seahawks (6-7)
Average draft position: 15.6FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.5%FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 14.2%
15. Green Bay Packers (6-7)
Average draft position: 19.1FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.1%FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 5.4%
16. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)
Average draft position: 17.5FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.7%
17. Los Angeles Rams (6-7)
Average draft position: 17.7FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.9%
18. Indianapolis Colts (7-6)
Average draft position: 17.8FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.8%
19. Denver Broncos (7-6)
Average draft position: 17.8FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.5%
20. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)
Average draft position: 18FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2%
21. Arizona Cardinals (via 7-6 HOU)
Average draft position: 18.3FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.2%
22. Minnesota Vikings (7-6)
Average draft position: 19.6FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.7%
23. Buffalo Bills (7-6)
Average draft position: 20.5FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.1%
24. Houston Texans (via 8-5 CLE)
Average draft position: 22.7FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: less than 0.1%
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)
Average draft position: 25.1FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: less than 0.1%
26. Detroit Lions (9-4)
Average draft position: 25.2
27. Miami Dolphins (9-4)
Average draft position: 26.8
27. Kansas City Chiefs (8-5)
Average draft position: 27.2
29. Philadelphia Eagles (10-3)
Average draft position: 28
30. Dallas Cowboys (10-3)
Average draft position: 28.1
31. Baltimore Ravens (10-3)
Average draft position: 28.9
32. San Francisco 49ers (10-3)
Average draft position: 30
