The NFL is still as fun to watch as ever. While parity will always keep scores and records relatively close, though, the league is currently going through an identity shift — a huge offensive swing the past decade should make the resulting tactical changes even more fascinating as they unfold.
Through three weeks, NFL games have been competitive but scoring is down to a ten-year low.
Where did all the points go? We explore in our Extra Point blog https://t.co/K2uFxF0iGN pic.twitter.com/5J9XgOfgcc
— Michael Lopez (@StatsbyLopez) September 27, 2022
More points will always be associated with more entertainment, but it is still entertaining to see defenses strike back while offenses attempt to figure out this brave new world — which is actually the old world — of Cover 2 and simulated pressures.
There is definitely more of a defensive flavor in this edition of the Rewind, and defensive play will be a huge theme of the 2022 season. But learning to embrace good play on both sides of the ball (and special teams, too) is what makes football such a wildly fun sport and explains why it is the ultimate team game.
On the schedule this week:
- Is Saquon Barkley all the way back?
- Jalen Ramsey’s next-level game
- Issues up front in Indianapolis
- Rookie receiver radiance
- A little “Sauce” for the Jets’ defense
- The Cardinals’ new option
- An underrated defensive stopper
The Saquon Barkley Redemption Tour
There’s a familiar name near the top of this season’s rushing leaders: Saquon Barkley, who now sits second in the NFL in rushing yards and is as healthy as he’s been since his rookie season in 2018. At 317 yards, he trails only Cleveland’s Nick Chubb (341) through Week 3.
Barkley looks explosive. He’s running strong and is consistently picking up yards on the ground, despite being on a Giants offense that features an anemic passing game and (sorry, Daniel Jones) a tight end playing quarterback. With a yards-after-contact average of 2.9, Barkley currently ranks fifth in the NFL. He’s also right in line with his “healthy” years of 2018 and 2019, when he averaged 2.8 yards after contact in each season.
His first down-per-rush rate of 22.6 percent is just below the league average of 23.1 percent, but Barkley’s number is more impressive when considering the fact that in 2022 he hasn’t received a single short-yardage attempt (third or fourth down and 1-2 yards to go).
Barkley finished Week 3 against the Dallas Cowboys on “Monday Night Football” with 81 yards on 14 carries, a performance that was punctuated by a 36-yard touchdown on a first-and-10, outside-zone run concept:
All of Barkley’s exceptional traits are on display on this run: strength, balance, quickness and, of course, burst. With a Cowboys defender getting penetration on right guard Mark Glowinski (No. 64), Barkley cuts and gets back to the line of scrimmage in a hurry. He then runs through a tackle attempt by the defender pursuing from the backside and is able to freeze two more defenders down the field with a quick cut, before outracing everyone else to the end zone.
The notable schematic element of this play is that it came on an under-center run. Barkley is wildly more effective from that alignment than he is from the shotgun. His success rate jumps from 15.8 percent out of the ‘gun (fourth worst amongst the 30 running backs with 30 or more rushing attempts) to 44.1 percent on under-center runs.
Jones’ legs make for another effective weapons in this Giants offense, which means more shotgun plays. But sprinkling in a few more under-center runs might further continue the 2022 redemption tour for Barkley. Tickets on sale now.
Saquon Barkley (36-yd TD run)
Against 8 defenders in the box, Barkley gained +31 rushing yards over expected on his 36-yd TD run. Barkley currently leads the NFL in rushing yards over expected this season (+114), surpassing Nick Chubb (+104).#DALvsNYG | Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/5CVfHqHSfp
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 27, 2022
Jalen Ramsey’s football IQ
It is not news that Jalen Ramsey is the best cornerback in the NFL and one of the best overall defenders, period. Ramsey not only has a rare blend of size and athletic traits, but he is also one of the most heady and aware defenders playing today.
He displays this week in and week out, but this third-and-long against the Arizona Cardinals from Sunday is a great snapshot of the intelligence that Ramsey (red arrow) plays with:
The Rams are in a cover-3 variation, in which a safety (No. 33 Nick Scott here) rotates down away from the “passing strength” of the Cardinals’ 3-by-1 formation. Scott is there to catch any over routes coming his way from the three Cardinals players opposite of him at the snap — that route being a common element of vertical-passing concepts and one that the Cardinals do have on this play (the middle route from the slot).
If all the Rams’ defenders played by their given rules, the high-low element here would typically put Scott in a bind. He would have to choose between running with A.J. Green’s route or taking Zach Ertz, who’s sitting right in front of him.
Enter Ramsey. In this coverage, a less-gifted cornerback would essentially be wasted on this pass concept. There is no threat in his third of the field, which is probably why the Cardinals designed it that way — “throw it where the star defenders ain’t” is a pretty good rule of thumb.
But Ramsey sees Greg Dortch (No. 83) chip blocking before releasing on his route, meaning that Dortch is not going to be a vertical threat because the chip element takes so much time. Ramsey recognizes it and realizes that he’s essentially a free defender on this play. He immediately starts looking for a route that he can disrupt and sees his mark in Ertz.
Ramsey breaks on the ball and deflects the pass; the Cardinals are forced to punt, despite having a good play design with windows for Kyler Murray.
It’s already hard enough to score points in the NFL. And special players like Jalen Ramsey make it even harder by bending the rules that should be constraining them.
Colts’ O-line creating holes (but not in a good way)
The Indianapolis Colts feature a veteran quarterback, Matt Ryan, and the most expensive offensive line in football. This is Chris Strausser’s third year as the Colts offensive line coach and center Ryan Kelly has started 83 games in his professional career. Even with offensive tackles that can generously be labeled as “question marks,” the pass protection for the Colts should be average — or, at the very least, sound with its plan of attack each week.
But even as the Colts came away with a huge win at home against Kansas City in Week 3, the Chiefs constantly had free-running defenders to disrupt the rhythm of Ryan’s passing:
L’Jarius Sneed times the blitz up perfectly. 😤 @jay__sneed
📺: #KCvsIND on CBS📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/Z1sK0UFTvK pic.twitter.com/3043bhS8eb
— NFL (@NFL) September 25, 2022
And it wasn’t just when Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo dialed up some of his diabolic blitz packages (although, that fourth-and-1 highlight above was). Even against the Jaguars in Week 2, the Colts’ offensive line worked in the wrong direction and let blitzing or looping defenders run free.
At first, I would have attributed those issues to new communication mechanics between Ryan and the offensive line. There doesn’t seem to be too much pre-snap adjusting going on for the Colts, though, which is oddly notable given how many games Kelly has under his belt.
I do trust that head coach Frank Reich, Ryan and the rest of the Colts’ players and coaches will start meshing as the season goes along. And though that offense probably won’t be able to hang its hat on the play of its tackles, the battery of Kelly and Ryan should hone in on what they’re doing protection-wise — they have to. Because the Colts are going to figure out the balance between a Jonathan Taylor-led run game and Ryan’s arm, but they can’t continue to have plays start dead on arrival, as has been the case too many times this season:
Rookie receivers looking the part
Six wide receivers were drafted in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, tied for the second most in draft history (and continuing a trend of pass catchers going early and often in the draft).
It just seemed like a numbers game that not all of those first-round receivers would end up working out. But, while Jameson Williams is still coming back from a knee injury he suffered in college, the early returns on those other five Round 1 WRs — Drake London, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jahan Dotson and Treylon Burks — are all promising. Consider their first three games like pilot episodes that a network would order a full season of shows on (Dotson might ask to have his quarterback recast).
The first down-per-route-run rates for London (14.5 percent), Burks (10.5 percent) and Wilson (10.2 percent) are all well above the league average (8 percent, for players with 10 or more targets). London ranks fourth overall out of the 81 wide receivers with enough targets to qualify for the leaderboard.
Four of those five active Round 1 receivers have an above-average EPA per target number — London (.50 EPA/target) and Burks (.49) rank 18th and 19th overall, respectively. Olave doesn’t land as high in those efficiency stats, but he is seventh in the NFL in receiving yards (263) and 13th in yards per route run. In fact, only Dotson falls below the league average of 1.67 yards in that latter category.
Even though Olave came into the league as an extremely polished route runner, the Saints have used him as their primary deep ball threat. No player in the NFL has been targeted more on throws of 20 or more air yards than Olave, who’s seen 11 of those attempts.
Dotson’s numbers aren’t up there with his other rookie brethren, but he has already shown off glimpses of dynamic play on the catchable targets he does get. He leads rookie receivers with three touchdowns, and the reliable hands and crisp route running he displayed at Penn State have carried over to the NFL.
With Williams hopefully coming back from injury during the season, and other rookies like Romeo Doubs, George Pickens and Alec Pierce flashing, the NFL seems to have been injected with another strong group of playmakers. Now, if only the amount of points scored league-wide would start reflecting that.
Pete Werner’s Emergence
Werner first grabbed my attention as a rookie because of his jersey number (20, an unusual one for a linebacker) more than what he was doing on the field. But his play kept my attention.
Peter Werner with a massive stop when we needed it 😤🦾#ATLvsNO | 📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/DB6oib8TUE
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) November 7, 2021
A linebacker out of Ohio State, Werner was considered to be far from a finished project when he entered the NFL — more of a athlete than true LB that could defend consistently against the run. But he hit the ground running quickly (literally and figuratively) as a rookie and has continued to evolve in his second season in New Orleans.
Werner leads the NFL in solo tackles, which sounds like I’m listing off an archaic stat, but it does speak to his play this season. The guy is everywhere. He is a very good athlete who reads the game exceptionally well — just watch him flying to meet the ball carrier when an opposing team pulls an offensive lineman or tight end. He’s also a plus player for the Saints in pass coverage.
And if solo tackles aren’t your jam, Werner is contributing in other ways that affect the game. For example: He is one of 12 defenders with double-digit “splash plays” so far in 2022 (defined as valuable defensive plays like sacks, TFLs, interceptions, forced fumbles, passes defended, etc.). Werner has 10 such plays, and that’s despite not having a single sack or interception. Instead, he’s piled up four run stuffs (tackles for no gain) and a pair of third- or fourth-down stops (tackles short of the sticks on those downs).
Werner is standing out while playing next to another excellent linebacker, Demario Davis. The next time you check out the Saints, look for No. 20 … and stay a while to check out Davis, too.
A.1. ‘Sauce’
It can feel like pulling teeth, at times, to acknowledge the play of defenders — especially rookies and especially especially rookie cornerbacks. But Jets first-round CB Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner is forcing people to pay attention.
1 vs. 1@iamSauceGardner wins this one. #TakeFlight
📺: #CINvsNYJ on CBS📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/iUVppEiy1d pic.twitter.com/UTnxJR3z7e
— NFL (@NFL) September 25, 2022
It’s hard to suggest that Gardner could be overlooked — he was the No. 4 pick in April, plays in one of the biggest media markets in the country and has that “Sauce” nickname. However, Gardner’s play should have even the non-draftniks and non-Jets fans of the world noticing where No. 1 is on each snap.
The Jets have had no hesitation playing Gardner in man coverage against top-tier wide receivers, like the Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Gardner — with four pass break-ups already — has answered the call, showing off his length and the competitive nature that made him a top-five pick.
This past Sunday, he stayed with Chase on a go route (ask Chiefs cornerbacks how easy that was to defend in 2021) and made a play on the ball. He also showed off fluid footwork and hips on an extended route by Higgins:
Gardner — like fellow top-five selection Derek Stingley Jr. — already looks like a bonafide starting cornerback who’s oozing Pro Bowl potential, and that’s before the first month of his rookie year has elapsed. I hate to get out too far ahead of things before I’ve even started watching horror movies in the lead-up to Halloween, but it’s a very cool thing to see not one, but two, potential rookie aces at one of the hardest positions to play in all of sports.
The Cardinals go back to college
With an offensive attack that wasn’t doing much attacking or scoring, the Cardinals resorted to a college football staple in the second half against the Rams in order to pick up yards on third down — and it wasn’t some Air Raid-certified passing concept using crossers and wonky formations.
No, instead, the Cardinals went with the speed option, a run play that features the quarterback running toward the “open side” of a formation (the side without a tight end next to the offensive tackle) and at an unblocked defender who’s considered the “end man on the line of scrimmage.” The quarterback’s task is to read the unblocked defender and either pitch to a trailing teammate or keep the ball himself.
The Cardinals called a speed-option play three times against the Rams. Here’s one of those calls, for a gain of six yards on third-and-3:
I have ragged on the Cardinals’ offense under Kliff Kingsbury for somehow being both gimmicky and static at the same time. But I do enjoy a play like the speed option being used in the NFL as a changeup.
As you can see on the play above, the Cardinals had very favorable run angles against the Rams’ passing-down look. The pitch would have gone for even more yards had left tackle DJ Humphries (No. 74) climbed to linebacker Bobby Wagner (No. 45) right away, instead of wasting his time on the defensive lineman — this offense consistently lacks detail. That said, the Cardinals did also run the ball away from Aaron Donald on the play, which must always be considered a win.
Arizona’s offense has many schematic warts, and they’re even more glaring this season without DeAndre Hopkins. But the speed option was a fun wrinkle.
Super Grover
DeForest Buckner is the star of the Colts defensive line, but his tag-team partner along the interior of the defensive line is not the Marty Jannetty to Buckner’s Shawn Michaels. No, Grover Stewart is a workhorse player who complements the disruptive Buckner and creates more of a Road Warrior Hawk and Road Warrior Animal-type of tag team for the Colts (OK, that’s it for wrestling references, I swear).
Stewart, a 2017 fourth-round pick, earned more and more snaps as his career went along before settling at around the 60 percent in 2019. He then earned a three-year extension near the end of the 2020 season.
He is a brawler — a classic nose tackle who can eat up blocks and clear lanes for his teammates to make plays in the run game. He will never fill up the box score with sacks or tackles for losses, but he has an effect on the game every time opposing offenses attempt to run on the Colts.
That impact not only shows up on the eye test but in the underlying numbers. The Colts have generated a defensive EPA of .31 per opposing teams designed run plays with Stewart on the field, a number that would rank first in the NFL stretched over an entire season. On plays that Stewart is off the field? That defensive EPA per run play falls to .02, which would be tied for 20th.
Stewart has already been rewarded for his play, in the monetary sense, but’s time to start acknowledging his play as one of the elite run defenders in the league.
(Photo illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; photo: Rich Schultz / Getty Images)
