The biggest question in drafting a fantasy quarterback is when. If you decide to pick one in the early middle rounds, you may find yourself waffling between the Saints’ Drew Brees and the Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger come Rounds 5 or 6. Post fantasy Madman Drew Loftis and Roto Files columnist Jarad Wilk debate which you should take.
Drew: First, I likely will pass on a QB this early. But on those rare occasions when the stars align and I feel comfortable drafting a QB at this spot, I’m going to go Brees. He is more durable and more consistent. And you often can get him a round later than Big Ben.
Jarad: I’m in the same boat as you in preferring to wait to draft a quarterback, but if the stars align, as you say, I am grabbing Big Ben because of, well, Antonio Brown. Yeah, Roethlisberger will miss having Martavis Bryant and Le’Veon Bell (for four games), but he has one of the best offensive lines in football, plus Markus Wheaton, Sammie Coates and, well, Antonio Brown. Have I mentioned Big Ben gets to throw to Antonio Brown?
Drew: Brees was the sixth-most productive fantasy QB last season. Roethlisberger the 20th. The Saints added young WR Michael Thomas and TE Coby Fleener. What did the Steelers do? They added oft-injured TE Ladarius Green (who is sidelined with a foot problem and now a concussion), and they lost Bryant to a drug suspension.
Jarad: Final stats from last season will be skewed in Brees’ direction because Roethlisberger played in just 12 games (11 starts), so I don’t put much stock in that ranking. Since 2011, Brees’ yardage and touchdown passes have declined each year. And though he has missed just two games since tearing his rotator cuff in 2006 (one of which came last season, and it was a shoulder issue), you’re talking about a 37-year-old with a lot of mileage on his arm. And what do you want the Steelers to add? I agree, Green is disappointing and the loss of Bryant hurts, but Big Ben still has the arsenal he needs to be successful. Oh, and, I don’t know if I have mentioned this yet, but he has Antonio Brown!
Drew: Oh, you want to play the durability card, do you? Well, Brees has played 15 games or more every year since 2004, missing a total of three games. Roethlisberger has played fewer than 15 games seven times in that span, missing a total of 21 games. And I almost forgot: Since 2008, Brees has finished first or second in fantasy production six times, and no worse than sixth. Big Ben in that time? He has one top-five (2014) and one other top-10 (2009). Brees’ average finish in that span is 3.25; Roethlisberger’s 14.13.
Jarad: How about the fact Roethlisberger has a favorable schedule? Pittsburgh will play 11 games against teams that were ranked 17th or worse against the pass last season. The only teams Big Ben will face that were ranked in the top 10 are the Cowboys (fifth), Chiefs (ninth) and Ravens (10th). This is a soft schedule for a QB who annihilates weak secondaries using the best fantasy weapon available in Brown. Brees has six games against top-five-ranked defenses. Good luck with an aging Brees going against the Chiefs and Broncos defenses, as well as the Seahawks, plus the division-rival Panthers (twice). By the way, Big Ben has Antonio friggin’ Brown!
Extra point: Robert Griffin III vs. Ryan Fitzpatrick
Drew: Fitzpatrick is a journeyman coming off a career year for the Jets, in which he finished 12th in QB fantasy production. RG3 gets a shot at redemption on a Browns team that suddenly has some interesting offensive talent. Fitz has hit his ceiling, and it wasn’t nearly as high as we’ve seen from Griffin. Picking this late, I would rather have big upside. With former Baylor teammate Josh Gordon slated to return after a four-game suspension, with rookie Corey Coleman, with breakout tight end Gary Barnidge and dynamic pass-catching back Duke Johnson Jr., RG3’s upside is better than Fitz’s.
Jarad: So, you would rather have a one-time mobile quarterback with a history of knee injuries who hasn’t played in a game since 2014 over Fitzpatrick? The same QB who never has played a full 16-game season and now is playing for a dysfunctional organization that has finished dead last in its division 11 times since 2003? Would you also go up to a random guy on the street, give him $10,000 and say, “Hey, can you watch this for me while I run into Duane Reade?” I would rather take the journeyman Harvard grad coming off a career year who has two established receivers (Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker), as well as up-and-coming targets such as Quincy Enunwa and Jace Amaro. This is a no-brainer.
