Matchups are often a driving force behind fantasy owners’ weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, you know the first question that comes to mind: Which one has the best matchup?

Ah, but what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?

That’s where this column comes in. The “Matchups Map,” each week, provides a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position – both favorable and unfavorable – based upon those statistics.

The maps include two measures: The first, “Rk,” is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, “Adj. FPA,” reflects how far above or below a player’s average that defense held opponents at that position. All data is from the past five weeks’ NFL action.

Finally, a caveat: Remember that matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.

Quarterbacks

Favorable matchup: Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Chicago Bears). Surely by this point you realize that Blake Bortles is a near weekly lock for your fantasy lineup, so let’s address a matchups-capable option from the QB2 class. Winston did disappoint two weeks ago facing an equally attractive matchup against the New Orleans Saints, but there’s a wrinkle to this one that makes it perhaps even more advantageous: The Bears have been the worst defense containing rushing quarterbacks. (While Winston isn’t considered a running quarterback, the first-year player has five rushing scores on the season.) To that end, they’ve afforded 30 fantasy points on runs alone to the position in the past five weeks combined, thanks to affording rushing touchdowns to a quarterback in each of the past three, and for the season they’ve allowed 42 rushing fantasy points (most in the league) and 0.875 per attempt to the position (most in the league). And if you’ve played fantasy football for the past half-decade, you’ve realized that mobile quarterbacks possess elevated basements; Winston’s is probably the highest of anyone ranked in the 11-20 range this week. Oh, those 78 fantasy points the Bears have allowed via throws the past five weeks – that tied for 11th-most during that time span – makes it a pretty good matchup, too.

Unfavorable matchup: Ryan Fitzpatrick, New York Jets (vs. New England Patriots). Though Fitzpatrick has had a productive fantasy season – he’s 10th among quarterbacks in scoring and has had four games worth 20-plus – this isn’t a good matchup for him, despite his worthwhile point total the last time these teams battled (19, in Week 7). The Patriots possess one of the fiercest pass rushes in the game, with league-leading sacks (17) and quarterback hits (eight) totals the past five weeks combined, and while the Jets have one of the better offensive lines in the game, one that helps Fitzpatrick in this regard, there’s little doubt that the matchup itself decreases his margin for error. Another problem: Fitzpatrick hasn’t played especially well when trailing on the scoreboard: His 1.17 touchdown-to-interception ratio when behind by at least one touchdown ranked 21st among 23 qualifying quarterbacks.

DEF toavoidOpp.RkAdj.FPA DEF toexploitOpp.RkAdj.FPA@NYJ1-10.0 IND325.7STL2-4.3 @TB315.3@DEN3-2.6 WAS304.8@BUF4-5.2 @NO295.6@OAK5-3.1 CHI285.1@ATL6-3.2 @MIA272.3@TEN7-3.4 HOU261.0@DET8-1.2 DAL253.9CLE9-1.3 @MIN244.7CAR10-2.9 JAC230.5CIN11-1.7 @PHI222.0@ARI120.3 NYG211.1GB130.0 @BAL201.2PIT14-2.5 NE191.6SD15-0.6 @KC18-1.6@SEA16-1.4 SF170.8

Running backs

Favorable matchup: Matt Jones and Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins (at Philadelphia Eagles). By a rough count, a whopping 19 of 32 NFL backfields face some sort of workload uncertainty – either by-design committee or injury-related fallout – entering Week 16. That forces many fantasy owners to make difficult decisions with players facing limited touches. When 10 seems a fair over/under for your player’s weekly touch total, it’s the elite matchups you want, which is why the Eagles stand out as one for the opposing Redskins. In the past five weeks combined, the Eagles afforded Doug Martin 23 fantasy points, two Detroit Lions running backs (Joique Bell and Theo Riddick) double-digit fantasy points (that’s two of the team’s six all season), James White 17 and David Johnson 40, the latter the best individual game by a running back this season. Jones has enjoyed a slight edge in terms of total touches recently – he has 50 to Morris’ 31 – while Morris is typically regarded the more natural goal-line choice, making both well worth flex-play consideration.

Unfavorable matchup: Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams (at Seattle Seahawks). He’s an RB1-ranked player because of raw ability alone, but make no mistake, Gurley’s Week 16 statistical floor is the lowest of the bunch (depending upon your opinion of Lamar Miller). The Seahawks have afforded only seven opposing running backs all season to exceed their seasonal fantasy points-per-game averages in a game of at least 10 touches; of that group, only Jonathan Stewart (19 fantasy points, plus-8.3, in Week 6) and DeAngelo Williams (16, plus-5.1, in Week 12) were starters for more than half the season (meaning the other five had averages skewed due to limited playing time). This defense shut down Matt Forte, Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson, and Gurley has been held to less than three yards per carry three times in his past five games by defenses that weren’t quite the Seahawks’ equals.

DEF toavoidOpp.RkAdj.FPA DEF toexploitOpp.RkAdj.FPASTL1-6.7 WAS329.6PIT2-5.0 @DET316.6@BAL3-4.8 JAC306.2CIN4-3.6 IND298.3SD5-4.0 CAR285.1@TEN6-5.1 @NYJ274.8CLE7-2.8 DAL262.5NE8-1.4 @TB254.8@DEN9-2.2 @NO241.1NYG10-2.4 @MIN232.9@PHI11-3.3 HOU221.1@ATL12-2.2 @BUF210.4@OAK13-1.6 SF20-0.3@ARI14-3.0 @SEA19-1.2GB15-2.2 @MIA18-0.5@KC16-1.0 CHI170.6

Wide receivers

Favorable matchup: Kamar Aiken, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers). Though the Steelers have played better defense of late, both for the season and during the past five weeks they’ve graded the most favorable matchup for opposing wide receivers. One of the reasons is that they’ve been getting slaughtered on vertical throws (their 57 receptions allowed on throws at least 15 yards downfield is most in the league). Aiken, meanwhile, is eighth in targets on throws at least that deep (48) the past five weeks combined, plus he’ll enjoy a volume advantage playing for a team routinely playing from behind. Since Joe Flacco’s injury in Week 11, the Ravens have played 65 percent of their total offensive snaps while behind on the scoreboard, which is the fifth-highest rate in the game.

Unfavorable matchup: A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals (at Denver Broncos). This is a poor matchup for offensive skill players all around. While Green, whose 9.5 targets-per-game average since the beginning of 2013 ranks eighth in the NFL, might be a difficult sit from a volume perspective, there’s no doubt that he’s a WR2 at best this week. Regardless of whether he lines up against Aqib Talib (the most likely on the majority of his snaps), Bradley Roby or Chris Harris Jr., Green won’t find many openings against the Broncos defense. Another concern is not just the skill downgrade from Andy Dalton to AJ McCarron, but also a diminished target rate working with the latter: Green has averaged 8.0 snaps and 5.1 routes run per target working with McCarron, compared to 6.6 and 3.7 working with Dalton this season.

DEF toavoidOpp.RkAdj.FPA DEF toexploitOpp.RkAdj.FPA@DET1-8.0 IND327.0@TEN2-6.9 @BAL318.6@NYJ3-6.4 CHI306.9@OAK4-6.2 HOU293.8CIN5-4.2 WAS284.9@BUF6-6.4 @MIA273.8@ARI7-2.3 DAL266.1GB8-0.3 NE256.8SD9-2.2 @NO243.2SF10-3.7 @KC231.4STL11-1.4 NYG220.0CAR12-4.9 @PHI211.7@DEN13-1.3 @SEA202.4JAC14-4.4 PIT190.0@TB150.5 CLE182.1@ATL16-0.9 @MIN172.0

Tight ends

Favorable matchup: Richard Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (at Arizona Cardinals). Rodgers’ fantasy owners might shy from him after he accrued exactly one reception in each of his past two games, but this matchup presents one of the best bounce-back opportunities he could want. The Cardinals, who historically have had issues containing tight ends – their 454 fantasy points allowed to the position since the beginning of 2013 are 65 more than any other team – are back in the habit, with a league-leading 64 points afforded the past five weeks combined. Rodgers, meanwhile, has five red zone targets in his past five games, tied for fifth-best at his position, and 12 for the season, tied for seventh best. The Rodgers-to-Rodgers connection – Aaron to Richard – is sure to be rekindled in Week 16.

Unfavorable matchup: Gary Barnidge, Cleveland Browns (at Kansas City Chiefs). He has been one of the most reliable tight ends all season, but he’s facing a Chiefs defense that hasn’t afforded a tight end more than seven fantasy points in a game the entire season, and it has faced Tyler Eifert and Antonio Gates (twice), both of whom have averaged more than that for the year. The Chiefs’ defensive weakness is actually against deeper throws – it’s why their numbers against opposing WR1s grade so poorly – but they’re the best in the game defending throws that travel 10 yards or fewer. Travis Benjamin, simply put, has the better matchup this week than Barnidge.

DEF toavoidOpp.RkAdj.FPA DEF toexploitOpp.RkAdj.FPANE1-3.0 SF323.2@BAL2-2.5 GB313.0@KC3-1.2 @PHI301.9HOU4-2.3 @NO291.1@ATL5-1.1 @SEA282.1@BUF6-1.1 JAC271.7CLE7-0.7 WAS261.2NYG8-0.1 DAL250.4@DEN9-0.9 @ARI241.5CAR10-1.6 CIN231.6@NYJ11-1.9 @TEN220.2@TB12-0.9 @MIA210.9CHI13-0.4 PIT201.2@MIN140.1 @OAK190.0SD15-0.9 @DET18-0.4IND16-0.6 STL17-0.8