Todd Gurley Fantasy 2019

Over the past two seasons, Todd Gurley has dominated the fantasy football scoring leaderboard in a way not seen since the heyday of LaDainian Tomlinson. Still, just 25 when the 2019 season kicks off, Gurley should be the consensus top selection of every fantasy football draft. But a troubling knee condition and a noncommittal response from Rams’ management has fantasy footballers avoiding Gurley to the point that he’s become a polarizing player.

While Gurley’s ADP has dipped and continues to plummet into the second round, questions remain about just how (un)healthy Gurley’s knee is and what steps Sean McVay and the Los Angeles brass intend to take to keep their superstar running back as healthy as possible. With so much uncertainty, the majority of fantasy owners are avoiding Gurley altogether.

We may never know the full extent of just how injured that knee is, but Gurley’s track record of phenomenal production combined with McVay’s innovative play-calling in a ‘win now’ window makes the fifth-year running back worth the risk, and acquiring him in the second round or even later can be a league-winning gamble for fantasy owners in 2019.

Status of Gurley’s Knee

Gurley originally tore the ACL in his left knee while at Georgia, but he made a full recovery and has developed into one of the most effective running backs in recent NFL history. With today’s technology and treatment, a major knee injury like that isn’t as devastating as it once was, and many players, including Gurley, can fully rebound from reconstructive knee surgery.

One of the common symptoms for a person that undergoes surgery on their ACL is the development of chronic arthritis. Most often found in older people, or athletes with a lot of wear and tear on joints, arthritis is inflammation of a joint usually caused by the reduction of cartilage. While stem cell treatments or microfracture surgery can improve those conditions somewhat, pain management and medication to reduce swelling is the most likely course of action for an athlete in his or her prime. As a general rule, arthritic joints do not heal. It becomes an issue of pain tolerance.

After month’s of speculation, Todd Gurley’s trainer Travelle Gaines revealed that Gurley does have “an arthritic component” to his banged up knee. While Gurley’s late-season swoon and the team’s selection of Darrell Henderson in the third round had led to much speculation, this was the first confirmation that there was indeed a big concern about Gurley’s ability to play at or near an elite level again.

While both Gurley and Gaines seem confident that his knee is fine and that he’ll be ready for the same role in 2019, history tells us that Gurley’s knee will never be the same and his days of leading the NFL in touches are likely in the past.

Running Backs and Arthritis

We’ve read of ton of comparisons of Todd Gurley and his worrisome knee to that of Hall-of-Fame running back Terrell Davis, whose brilliant NFL career was cut short after a torn ACL that quickly led to the onset of arthritis and sapped Davis’s effectiveness. It’s easy to compare Gurley to Davis, as both backs attended Georgia before becoming outstanding NFL rushers, but their career trajectories were quite different.

Today’s NFL game is much different from 20 years ago when star running backs were often run into the ground. While Gurley has led the NFL in scoring in back-to-back seasons, he’s never led the league in touches. As effective as Gurley is, Sean McVay excels at maximizing Gurley in the red zone and Gurley has never exceeded 23 touches-per-game in the NFL.

Rushing Receiving Year Age Tm G Rush Yds TD Y/A Y/G Tgt Rec Yds TD 2015 21 STL 13 229 1106 10 4.8 85.1 26 21 188 0 2016 22 LAR 16 278 885 6 3.2 55.3 58 43 327 0 2017 23 LAR 15 279 1305 13 4.7 87 87 64 788 6 2018 24 LAR 14 256 1251 17 4.9 89.4 81 59 580 4

Gurley also tore his ACL in November of 2014, a non-contact injury against Auburn. Gurley was only 20 at the time and was still able to suit up for Week 1 of his rookie campaign. More importantly, he had zero NFL touches on his resume and only 575 touches in three seasons with the Bulldogs. He made a full recovery from ACL surgery and has not re-injured the knee in the pros.

Conversely, Davis had a lot of NFL mileage on his tires before he suffered a torn ACL in October of 1999. At that time, Davis was already 27 and had been overused at the NFL level. Davis led the NFL with a whopping 411 touches in 1997 and averaged 403 annual touches from 1996-1998.

Year Age Tm G Rush Yds TD Y/A Y/G Tgt Rec Yds TD 1995 23 DEN 14 237 1117 7 4.7 79.8 82 49 367 1 1996 24 DEN 16 345 1538 13 4.5 96.1 52 36 310 2 1997 25 DEN 15 369 1750 15 4.7 116.7 58 42 287 0 1998 26 DEN 16 392 2008 21 5.1 125.5 38 25 217 2 1999 27 DEN 4 67 211 2 3.1 52.8 3 3 26 0 2000 28 DEN 5 78 282 2 3.6 56.4 2 2 4 0 2001 29 DEN 8 167 701 0 4.2 87.6 21 12 69 0

After four NFL season, Gurley has accumulated 1,229 total touches, an average of just over 307 annually. Daivs, on the other hand, had racked up 1,495 touches after his first four NFL campaigns. This adds up to an average of 374 annually, which is over 30 more touches than Gurley’s career high.

The truth is, it isn’t necessarily fair to compare Davis and Gurley. No two bodies are the same and past results are certainly not indicative of the future. Once Davis developed arthritis, he simply wasn’t the same player while other running backs plagued with chronic arthritis, like journeyman Charcandrick West, found a way to treat the swelling and continue their careers.

While Gurley remains confident in his knee and steadfastly claimed he’s fully healthy, chances are that the Rams are going to try to limit his touches in order to maximize his effectiveness and longevity.

Todd Gurley 2019 Workload

Even though Todd Gurley’s knee has held up well and he’s been surprisingly durable throughout his NFL career, chances are that his days of leading the NFL in total yards are now in the past. When the Rams traded up to nab electrifying big-play rookie Darrell Henderson in the third round of the 2019 NFL draft, it all but guaranteed that and caused Gurley’s fantasy stock to go into freefall, while Henderson’s ADP has gotten out of control.

The big question for fantasy football is just how Sean McVay will utilize both backs in 2019. The safest approach seems to be to expect a 70/30 split in Gurley’s favor. Henderson (5-8, 208) is an explosive home run hitter but isn’t built to take on a three-down role. He’s best utilized as a change-of-pace runner or part of a committee, like Tevin Coleman. LA’s backfield could morph into a full-blown committee, but before that happens, Henderson must prove himself.

McVay has used Gurley brilliantly in the red zone, and that is unlikely to change this season. Gurley has led the league in red zone touches and scores in each of the past two seasons. In addition, he’s also caught 15-of-29 red-zone passes for 130 yards and an additional seven touchdown receptions. Role change or not, McVay will continue to heavily feature Gurley in the red zone, which should lead to another season of double-digit touchdowns.

Even if his workload is reduced by one-third, Gurley still has an excellent shot at producing RB1 numbers. Gurley scored 372.1 PPR points last season in 14 games, which ranked third in the NFL. 70% of 372.1 points would be 260.5, which would have ranked ninth among all running backs, just ahead of David Johnson in 2018. 70% of his 2017 PPR totals would have been 271.1 points, which would have qualified as the RB7 two years ago.

In short, Gurley has been phenomenal, especially in the red zone. Even if his touches are dramatically scaled back, or he’s the ‘1A’ in a committee backfield, Gurley is far more likely to continue to post RB1 numbers than he is to dramatically fall off the proverbial cliff.

ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator

Worth the Risk

While many of us will be eager to see Gurley and Henderson in the backfield this preseason, that’s not going to happen. McVay is highly unlikely to let Gurley suit up for meaningless preseason games. This will give Henderson a real chance to shine and if he’s able to take advantage of his touches, the rookie out of Memphis could become a real factor and live up to his currently inflated ADP.

That’s what makes drafting Todd Gurley slightly risky in 2019. We really don’t have a clear picture of how the Rams will use their superstar running back now that he might be dealing with an ailment that is not going to be cured. And as the summer progresses and training camp and the NFL preseason arrive, we’re still not going to have any definitive idea of how the Rams’ backfield will play out.

Because of this, Todd Gurley is now regularly available in the latter half of the second round and could even slip into Round Three.

Successfully engineering a championship-caliber fantasy squad requires a certain amount of risk/reward. While there’s plenty of risk that Todd Gurley’s best days are behind him and his NFL career could be in jeopardy, he’s a generational talent and is still just 25-years-old. If Gurley is on the board in the second round of your fantasy draft, he’s well worth the risk and his already apparent upside is going to deliver another top-10 season but this time with a huge discounted price. Don’t be afraid to pull that trigger.

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