We’re only a couple years removed from Todd Gurley owning the top draft slot in fantasy drafts everywhere. Back to back First Team All-Pro selections for the Rams in 2017 and 2018, it looked like Gurley was on a path for a gold jacket. He led the league in scrimmage yards in ‘17 and TDs in both ‘17 and ‘18.
The wheels fell off in 2019, crashing down with the Rams, ending in a release. Heading home to Georgia, Gurley represented somewhat of a value proposition at the draft table. Through eight games, he’s probably returned decent value for your squad. So, why am I worried?
Gurley’s yards per carry sit at the same rate as last season, a disappointing 3.8. Yes, the volume is there, but if you take a look at the schedule he’s played versus the schedule remaining, he’s used up the vast majority of favorable matchups already, with only a Week 12 date with the Raiders remaining as a “green light” option. He has the Broncos, Saints twice, and the Bucs in the playoffs – all teams in the top ten against fantasy running backs.
A big percentage of Gurley’s points come from TDs. Atlanta does score a lot, but you’re now talking about a back who is increasingly becoming dependent on TDs for points. His low usage in the passing game should worry you as well. Through half the season, he’s only been targeted 20 times and only as a safety valve. He’s in danger of falling short of the paltry 207 receiving yards he put up last year. Additionally, the Falcons will take their bye in Week 10 and rarely will someone make a deal for someone they can’t play immediately.
The Falcons sit at the halfway mark at 2-6 and while they probably deserve to be more like 4-4, they’re not a team that will be milking the clock sitting on late leads. They’ll almost certainly be heavy underdogs against Kansas City and Tampa Bay in the fantasy playoff weeks, likely reducing Gurley’s role even further.
Gurley still has some name recognition, obviously, and maybe a league mate will get enamored with the current point total. I think he’s fools gold. If you agree with me and you have him rostered, now is the time to try and trade him. Don’t wait until he lays an egg against Denver and goes into a bye. Act now.
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