It’s crunch-time and everything has to be perfect. I get it. I really do.
For most of you, it’s the semifinals of your fantasy football playoffs and you want to make sure you pull out all the stops. A spot in your championship (and untold riches I’m sure) is at stake. Glory is on the line.
It makes sense to bench Julio Jones against a ridiculously tough 49ers pass defense, right? Or Joe Mixon against the Patriots? Or an active Mark Andrews against a Jets defense that has been very good in neutralizing tight ends this season?
No. It doesn’t make sense.
Is it possible a waiver-wire pick-up or well-scouted sleeper in your lineup this week will make the difference in you advancing to your league’s championship or battling for third-place next week?
Sure.
Is it likely? Probably not.
It’s much more likely your best players — the players you likely drafted or traded for at some point — will make the difference.
You’re not sitting Patrick Mahomes against a Broncos secondary that has only allowed one 300-yard passer and one-or-fewer touchdown passes in eight games this season.
Don’t overthink this. Fill your lineup with the players who have performed for you week-in, week-out.
Otherwise, you’re just throwing darts and you’re better than that.
You’re a semifinalist. Good luck.
Follow me on Twitter @UTEddieBrown if you have questions throughout the week.
Here’s my best bets for Week 15:
N.Y. JETS AT BALTIMORE
Obvious starters: Le’Veon Bell (NYJ), Lamar Jackson (BAL), Mark Ingram (BAL), Mark Andrews (BAL), Ravens D/ST.
Who to start: The target share isn’t where I’d like it to be (only five the last two games), but the Jets struggle covering speedsters like WR Marquise Brown (BAL) and he could thrive with all the attention being shown to the tight ends.
Who to sit: I’m fading QB Sam Darnold (NYJ) against a defense allowing one-or-fewer touchdown passes in 10 straight games. WR Robby Anderson (NYJ) remains a boom-or-bust option despite his current run of at least seven receptions, 101 yards or a touchdown in four straight games. WR Jamison Crowder (NYJ) is only a viable flex flier in the deepest PPR formats with only seven receptions (on 20 targets) for 56 yards the last three games. Is a Jets D/ST without Jamal Adams even a defense? WR Willie Snead (BAL) remains touchdown-dependent.
Sleeper: TE Hayden Hurst (BAL) is a sneaky streaming candidate if Andrews is limited or out Thursday night.
NEW ENGLAND AT CINCINNATI
Obvious starters: Julian Edelman (NE), Patriots D/ST.
Who to start: RB James White (NE) remains a high-end flex option in most PPR formats with at least four receptions in nine games this season. RB Joe Mixon (CIN) still has RB2 upside despite the match-up with an average of 23 touches the last five games. WR Tyler Boyd (CIN) deserves flex consideration despite the match-up with at least five receptions, 55 yards or a touchdown in 10 games this season.
Who to sit: I’m fading QB Tom Brady (NE) with one-or-fewer touchdown passes in seven of 10 games. I like the match-up, but high usage isn’t even guaranteed for RB Sony Michel (NE) anymore (he has 10-or-fewer carries in four of five games). QB Andy Dalton (CIN) faces a defense allowing only one-or-fewer touchdown passes in 12 of 13 games. TE Tyler Eifert (CIN) remains touchdown-dependent.
Sleeper: WR Mohamed Sanu (NE) had six receptions (on nine targets) for 111 yards in his only other game (Week 4 last year) against the team that drafted him in 2012.
TAMPA BAY AT DETROIT
Obvious starters: Chris Godwin (TB), Kenny Golladay (DET).
Who to start: TE O.J. Howard (TB) has at least four receptions, 47 yards or a touchdown in three of five games. The Buccaneers D/ST has produced seven turnovers, 12 sacks and two touchdowns the last three games. The Lions D/ST are a sneaky streaming candidate against an offense that has allowed 41 sacks, five touchdowns and committed 32 turnovers this season.
Who to sit: I’m fading QB Jameis Winston (TB) with a fractured thumb on his throwing hand. Inconsistent usage makes it hard to trust RB Ronald Jones (TB) in the fantasy playoffs. RB Peyton Barber (TB) remains touchdown-dependent. This is a difficult match-up to trust RB Bo Scarbrough (DET) despite the workload (an average of 18 carries in four games). WR Danny Amendola (DET) is only a flex flier in the deepest PPR formats.
Sleeper: WR Breshad Perriman (TB) is a sneaky flex in most formats as the Bucs No. 2 wide receiver with eight receptions (on 11 targets) for 157 yards and a touchdown the last two games.
CHICAGO AT GREEN BAY
Obvious starters: Allen Robinson (CHI), Davante Adams (GB), Aaron Jones (GB).
Who to start: High usage (an average of 19 touches over the last seven games) keeps rookie RB David Montgomery (CHI) in the flex conversation. RB Tarik Cohen (CHI) is a viable flex option in deeper PPR formats with at least four receptions in five straight games. QB Aaron Rodgers (GB) has 791 passing yards, 10 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in his last three home games against the Bears. The Packers D/ST are a solid option at home and has allowed 16-or-fewer points in three of four games.
Who to sit: QB Mitchell Trubisky (CHI) has zero games with 300 yards passing and only three touchdown passes in four career starts against the Packers. WR Taylor Gabriel (CHI) remains boom-or-bust. I’m fading the Bears D/ST against such an efficient offense. RB Jamaal Williams (GB) is only a panic flex option in most PPR formats if you’re desperate. TE Jimmy Graham (GB) remains touchdown-dependent. WR Geronimo Allison (GB) has three-or-fewer targets in five of six games. WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB) has one-or-fewer receptions in six straight games.
Sleeper: WR Anthony Miller (CHI) has at least six receptions, 54 yards or a touchdown in four straight games.
HOUSTON AT TENNESSEE
Obvious starters: Deshaun Watson (HOU), DeAndre Hopkins (HOU), Derrick Henry (TEN), Ryan Tannehill (TEN).
Who to start: A high floor makes RB Carlos Hyde (HOU) a decent flex flier in most standard formats. Rookie WR A.J. Brown (TEN) has 12 receptions (on 16 targets) for 333 yards and three touchdowns the last three games. TE Jonnu Smith (TEN) faces a defense allowing at least seven receptions, 72 yards or a touchdown in five of seven games.
Who to sit: I’m fading WR Will Fuller (HOU) as a boom-or-bust option. RB Duke Johnson (HOU) remains a flex flier in the deepest PPR formats. WR Kenny Stills (HOU) remains boom-or-bust. TE Darren Fells (HOU) remains touchdown-dependent. The Texans D/ST are facing one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL. WR Corey Davis (TEN) only has five receptions (on nine targets) the last three games.
Sleeper: The Titans D/ST have scored a touchdown in three of four games.
DENVER AT KANSAS CITY
Obvious starters: Phillip Lindsay (DEN), Patrick Mahomes (KC), Tyreek Hill (KC), Travis Kelce (KC).
Who to start: High usage (at least seven targets in 11 games) helps WR Courtland Sutton (DEN) maintain his WR3/flex upside. Rookie TE Noah Fant (DEN) is a solid streaming candidate with an average of almost six targets the past seven games.
Who to sit: Rookie QB Drew Lock (DEN) has looked sharp, but you’re not putting the fate of your playoff team in his hands. RB Royce Freeman (DEN) is touchdown-dependent. I’m fading RB Damien Williams (KC) until we see him make it through an entire game. RB LeSean McCoy (KC) has become touchdown-dependent. WR Sammy Watkins (KC) is simply too inconsistent to trust at this stage unless you’re desperate. Rookie WR Mecole Hardman (KC) is touchdown-dependent.
Sleeper: The Chiefs D/ST is a solid streaming candidate at home against a rookie quarterback.
MIAMI AT N.Y. GIANTS
Obvious starters: DeVante Parker (MIA), Saquon Barkley (NYG).
Who to start: TE Mike Gesicki (MIA) is a solid streaming candidate with at least five targets ins six straight games. You’re starting TE Evan Engram (NYG) if he’s active. Rookie WR Darius Slayton (NYG) has 25 receptions (on 38 targets) for 386 yards and four touchdowns the last four games. Both WRs Sterling Shepard (NYG) and Golden Tate (NYG) are fine flex fliers in most PPR formats if you need to roll the dice.
Who to sit: You can’t trust either QBs Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) or Eli Manning (NYG) with your fantasy fate.
Sleeper: RB Patrick Laird (MIA) deserves flex consideration in the deepest PPR formats with at least four receptions in three of four games.
PHILADELPHIA AT WASHINGTON
Obvious starters: Zach Ertz (PHI).
Who to start: QB Carson Wentz (PHI) has surpassed 306 passing yards in four of five games and tossed multiple touchdowns in four straight games against the Redskins. Rookie RB Miles Sanders (PHI) deserves flex consideration in most PPR formats. The Eagles D/ST has allowed 17-or-fewer points in five of six games and now faces the worst offense in the NFL. Rookie WR Terry McLaurin (WAS) faces a defense that has allowed 18 touchdowns to the position this season. RB Adrian Peterson (WAS) has at least 76 yards or a touchdown in six of eight games.
Who to sit: RB Jordan Howard (PHI) is a flex flier at best in most standard formats if he’s active.
Sleeper: TE Dallas Goedert (PHI) has at least four receptions or a touchdown in eight of 10 games and most of the Eagles receivers are injured.
SEATTLE AT CAROLINA
Obvious starters: Russell Wilson (SEA), Chris Carson (SEA), Seahawks D/ST, Christian McCaffrey (CAR), D.J. Moore (CAR).
Who to start: Rookie WR DK Metcalf (SEA) has at least six receptions and 70 yards in four of five games. WR Curtis Samuel (CAR) has at least four receptions or a touchdown in eight games this season. The Panthers D/ST faces an offense that has allowed 18 sacks, two touchdowns and committed nine turnovers in the last four games.
Who to sit: WR Tyler Lockett (SEA) only has eight receptions (on 15 targets) the last four games. TE Jacob Hollister (SEA) faces a defense that has allowed only two receptions to the position in four of five games. WR Josh Gordon (SEA) has been targeted two-or-fewer times in three of four games with the Seahawks. There are better options than QB Kyle Allen (CAR) this week. TE Greg Olsen (CAR) remains in the NFL’s concussion protocol.
Sleeper: TE Ian Thomas (CAR) is a solid streaming candidate if Olsen remains sidelined against a defense that has allowed 33 receptions, 303 yards and two touchdowns to the position the last three games.
JACKSONVILLE AT OAKLAND
Obvious starters: Leonard Fournette (JAX), D.J. Chark (JAX), Darren Waller (OAK).
Who to start: Rookie QB Gardner Minshew (JAX) is a sneaky streaming candidate if you’re desperate against a defense that has allowed 30 touchdown passes this season. WR Dede Westbrook (JAX) deserves flex consideration in most PPR formats with 23 receptions the last four games.
Who to sit: The Jaguars D/ST can’t stop the run or pressure the quarterback. QB Derek Carr (OAK) only has five touchdown passes the last five games. I’m fading RB Josh Jacobs (OAK) until he makes it through an entire game. WR Tyrell Williams (OAK) remains touchdown-dependent.
Sleeper: RB DeAndre Washington (OAK) is a solid flex flier against a porous run defense if Jacobs remains sidelined.
CLEVELAND AT ARIZONA
Obvious starters: Nick Chubb (CLE), Jarvis Landry (CLE), Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE).
Who to start: QB Baker Mayfield (CLE) deserves streaming consideration against a defense that has allowed 32 touchdown passes this season. RB Kareem Hunt (CLE) deserves flex consideration in most PPR formats with 22 receptions in five games. TE David Njoku (CLE) faces a defense that has allowed a touchdown to the position in 10 games this season. Rookie QB Kyler Murray (ARI) has multiple touchdown passes in four of five games. RB Kenyan Drake (ARI) deserves flex consideration in most PPR formats. WR Christian Kirk (ARI) has six-or-more receptions in six of 10 games this season.
Who to sit: WR Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) really only has flex potential in deeper PPR formats at this point. RB David Johnson (ARI) is touchdown-dependent.
Sleeper: The Browns D/ST faces an offense that is allowing an average of five sacks, two turnovers and a touchdown the last three games.
MINNESOTA AT L.A. CHARGERS
Obvious starters: Dalvin Cook (MIN), Stefon Diggs (MIN), Vikings D/ST, Melvin Gordon (LAC), Austin Ekeler (LAC), Keenan Allen (LAC), Hunter Henry (LAC).
Who to start: QB Kirk Cousins (MIN) has 15 touchdowns against one interception the last seven games. TE Kyle Rudolph (MIN) has six touchdowns in the last seven games.
Who to sit: I’m fading WR Adam Thielen (MIN) until he makes it through an entire game healthy. QB Philip Rivers (LAC) only has nine touchdown passes against nine interceptions the past six games. I’m fading the Chargers D/ST against such an efficient offense.
Sleeper: WR Mike Williams (LAC) has at least 55 yards in nine games this season.
L.A. RAMS AT DALLAS
Obvious starters: Todd Gurley (LAR), Robert Woods (LAR), Cooper Kupp (LAR), Rams D/ST, Dak Prescott (DAL), Ezekiel Elliott (DAL), Amari Cooper (DAL).
Who to start: QB Jared Goff (LAR) is averaging 359 yards and two touchdowns the last two games. TE Tyler Higbee (LAR) has 19 receptions (on 25 targets) for 243 yards and a touchdown the last three games. WR Michael Gallup (DAL) has WR3/flex upside with 26 receptions (on 46 targets) for 451 yards the last five games.
Who to sit: WR Brandin Cooks (LAR) only has four receptions (on eight targets) the last three games since returning from a concussion. WR Randall Cobb (DAL) is only viable in the deepest PPR formats.
Sleeper: TE Jason Witten (DAL) has at least five receptions in five of eight games.
ATLANTA AT SAN FRANCISCO
Obvious starters: Julio Jones (ATL), Austin Hooper (ATL), George Kittle (SF), Tevin Coleman (SF), 49ers D/ST.
Who to start: RB Devonta Freeman (ATL) deserves flex consideration in most PPR formats despite the difficult match-up. QB Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) has 16 touchdown passes against only four interceptions the last six games. WR Emmanuel Sanders (SF) has 28 receptions (39 targets) for 407 yards and three touchdowns in seven games since being acquired from the Broncos. Rookie WR Deebo Samuel (SF) has at least five receptions, 76 yards or a touchdown in five straight games. RB Raheem Mostert (SF) has earned flex consideration with four total touchdowns the last three games.
Who to sit: I’m fading QB Matt Ryan (ATL) against a defense that has allowed only one-or-fewer touchdown passes in eight games this season. RB Matt Breida (SF) could be the odd-man out of this dynamic backfield.
Sleeper: WR Russell Gage (ATL) has flex potential in deeper PPR formats with 23 targets the last three games and Calvin Ridley sidelined.
BUFFALO AT PITTSBURGH
Obvious starters: Josh Allen (BUF), Devin Singletary (BUF), Bills D/ST, Steelers D/ST.
Who to start: WR Cole Beasley (BUF) has a touchdown in six of eight games.
Who to sit: WR John Brown (BUF) only has eight receptions (on 16 targets) the last three games. RB Frank Gore (BUF) is touchdown-dependent. I’m fading RB James Conner (PIT) until he makes it through an entire game healthy. It’s hard to trust WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) with so much on the line. Rookie WR Diontae Johnson (PIT) is boom-or-bust. TE Vance McDonald (PIT) only has five targets the last three games. RB Jaylen Samuels (PIT) is only viable in the deepest PPR formats.
Sleeper: WR James Washington (PIT) has at least four receptions or a touchdown in five of six games.
INDIANAPOLIS AT NEW ORLEANS
Obvious starters: Marlon Mack (IND), Jack Doyle (IND), Drew Brees (NO), Michael Thomas (NO), Alvin Kamara (NO), Saints D/ST.
Who to start: QB Jacoby Brissett (IND) is a solid streaming candidate against a defense that has allowed 13 touchdown passes the last five games.
Who to sit: I’m fading WR T.Y. Hilton (IND) until he makes it through an entire game healthy. RB Nyheim Hines (IND) is only viable as a flex flier in the deepest PPR formats. This match-up doesn’t favor a decent Colts D/ST. TE Jared Cook (NO) remains in the NFL’s concussion protocol. RB Latavius Murray (NO) remains touchdown-dependent. WR Ted Ginn (NO) remains boom-or-bust.
Sleeper: WR Zach Pascal (IND) has 12 receptions (on 19 targets) for 183 yards and a touchdown the last two games.
