Where would Tom Brady rank in 2023 Quarterback Tiers?

Where would Tom Brady rank in 2023 Quarterback Tiers?

Read the latest edition of Mike Sando’s NFL Quarterback Tiers.

For the first time in more than two decades, NFL training camps opened without Tom Brady. For the first time in 10 years of my annual Quarterback Tiers project, there was no entry for the seven-time Super Bowl winner and three-time league MVP.

But Brady actually was included in the survey this year, and today we’ll reveal where 50 NFL coaches and execs placed him relative to active veteran starting quarterbacks. If nothing else, the results provide an exit evaluation for the most successful quarterback in the history of the league.

Brady seems retired for good, but when I began gathering insights from the 50 league insiders after the NFL Draft, I thought there was a chance, however remote, that Brady might unretire before the 2023 season. The decision was made, out of an abundance of caution, to place Brady on the ballot just in case.

“If something pops somewhere, I think he’ll play,” a former New England Patriots coach advised back in June.

Nothing popped, so we excluded voting results and insiders’ comments for Brady when the Quarterback Tiers published Monday. Would he really upgrade all but five teams at the position? That’s what the voting results suggest.

“He would upgrade the team that he’s buying,” a head coach said in reference to the Las Vegas Raiders, of which Brady is set to own a share.

A former head coach singled out another team Brady would upgrade at the position.

“If I was in New England and I had to choose between Brady and Mac Jones, I’d take Brady and they would have a better season with Brady,” this coach said.

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Had voting results for Brady been included in the 2023 Tiers, he would have landed atop Tier 2, ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles’ Jalen Hurts by a 1.82 to 1.84 margin in average tier vote. That would have left Brady behind only five Tier 1 QBs: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers and Justin Herbert.

“It would be hard not to put him in Tier 2,” an evaluator whose team faced Brady last season said. “I still thought he threw the ball pretty well last year.”

Sixteen of the 50 voters placed Brady in Tier 1, reserved for quarterbacks who carry their teams each week, expertly handle pure-passing situations and have no real holes in their games.

Twenty-seven voters placed Brady in Tier 2, reserved for quarterbacks who can carry their teams sometimes, handle pure-pass situations in doses and have a hole or two in their games.

“I’d buy that, yeah, because he knows how to play and he is not going to have many bad plays,” an offensive coach said. “He needs a good team around him, and Tampa took a step back on defense last year too.”

Brady received seven votes in Tier 3, reserved for legitimate starters who need heavier running games and/or defensive components to win, and who are not as well-suited for the dropback passing game. He had never received a vote lower than Tier 2 previously.

“He’s still a 2 because he is going to make the right decisions where to go with the ball, checking to the run, and his physical skills are still better than Peyton Manning’s were at the end in Denver,” a defensive coordinator said.

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A voter who placed Brady in Tier 3 pointed to games such as Tampa Bay’s 20-18 defeat against Pittsburgh when the Steelers’ secondary was depleted and Brady failed to fully capitalize.

“I’d give him a 3, and that is being generous,” this voter said. “He wasn’t the same in terms of consistent accuracy, and that has been his thing.”

Some voters pointed to extenuating circumstances.

“I think he ran into a buzzsaw last year with the divorce and losing millions in the crypto investment,” one said. “Both things seem to be handled now to a degree that I think he could function better. If he had enough on defense and offense, hell, he’s going to make the right decisions. So he can’t scramble on third down, but if there’s enough around him, they could do alright.”

(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; photo: Michael Owens / Getty Images)

The Football 100, the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, goes on sale this fall. Pre-order it here.