The NFL is still moving ahead, which gives us something sports-y to entertain us and take our minds off things. Stay safe, stay clean, and bookmark this page for regular updates as they come in!
As always, I’ll be updating every NFL Free Agent signing (skill position wise) and breaking down the 2020 fantasy football impact. As a reminder as well, the first few days are legal tampering, and most of the leaked signings hold. If any rumored deal changes, I will update it here as well.
Lastly, and this is for all of you!… since we have no idea how long the wait might be between signings, etc., have fun in the comments. Feel free to discuss amongst each other, or ask me any 2020 fantasy football questions (or video games, cereals, movies, whatever) you might have!
Todd Gurley Released, Signs with Falcons
This deserves its own section, as the Rams couldn’t find a trade partner and have released Gurley, preventing his $10.5 million roster bonus but leaving $20.15 in dead money! Gurley’s potential 2020 value remains to be seen, and I’ll update once he signs (Buccaneers?). As for the Rams though, it’s Darrell Henderson SZN! You’ll see some people hype Malcolm Brown, but he’s not the talent that Henderson is.
From last year. Henderson was one of my two Tier 1 running backs predraft. Jacobs the other pic.twitter.com/RiSTQ6ba3K
— Jake Ciely (@allinkid) March 19, 2020
Brown is replacement level, similar to Jordan Howard. He’s fine, but you can find plenty of running backs who do what he does. Henderson can be a difference-maker, a la Austin Ekeler. In fact, he will be next year’s Ekeler. Brown can still carry the ball as many times as Henderson will, but Henderson will be much more effective and eat up more of Gurley’s vacated 14 touchdowns from 2019 (12 rushing). Hopefully, you already own Henderson in dynasty and keeper leagues, and as things stand, Henderson is a high-upside RB2.
Todd Gurley, RB – Atlanta Falcons – Say what you will about Gurley’s performance, but I think this was a great move by the Falcons to move quickly and get Gurley on a reported one-year $5 million deal. The backfield is Gurley’s for the taking with Devonta Freeman’s 184 carries and 71 targets (59/410/4) gone. The competition isn’t fierce, and while Gurley won’t touch to ball 25+ times a week these days, if healthy, he’s the bellcow. Of course, the concern is that Gurley rushed for just 3.8 YPC with a mere 43.6% of his yards after contact – a number that sits alongside Sony Michel, LeSean McCoy and the like… aka, not good. The good side is that Gurley still finished as RB14 in 15 games, thanks to his 14 touchdowns (12 rushing), and the Falcons had 53 rushing attempts in the red zone as a team (outside of Matt Ryan’s three) with 10 of those inside the five.
Gurley is a risk at this point, but between him and David Johnson, I’d take the gamble on Gurley first. Of course, Gurley’s knee is problematic, so while he claims he can be healthier and better in 2020, that’s unlikely. However, we saw his floor, and I’ll take that 90% of Gurley over 90% of Johnson and his bad back. Draft Gurley as a mid-low RB2 with the ceiling for Top 15 or more.
2020 NFL Free Agency Tracker
QUARTERBACKS
Tom Brady, QB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Chicken or the egg here. Did Brady have his worst season in years because of declining skills or an awful receiving corps? We’ll find out for sure because Bruce Arians’ system is as aggressive as they come in the passing game. For all of Jameis Winston’s turnover issues, he still threw for 5,109 and 33 touchdowns. His interceptions and the Buccaneers defense both benefited him with more opportunities, tying for the league lead with 626 attempts.
Brady did attempt 613 of his own, his highest since 2015, but he focuses on being smarter and more efficient and lacks the arm power at this point in his career. With how Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are used, it would appear Godwin can hold steady while Evans sees a slight downtick. Brady could easily throw for 30+ touchdowns, but his yardage will be in the low-4,000 range, nowhere near 5K.
Back when Brady had a 581/4,577/32 line in 2017, Rob Gronkowski and Brandin Cooks topped 1,000 yards and had eight and seven touchdowns, respectively. So, both Godwin and Evans finishing as WR1s can happen, but don’t expect a huge uptick for O.J. Howard. Brady could easily look Cameron Brate’s way, as it’s more about Arians not having Howard run enough routes. Danny Amendola was third on that 2017 season with 659/2, FYI, so whoever the third option is won’t be consistent or a major difference-maker. In the end, I’d rank Godwin ahead of Evans and still have him in the Top 5 discussion. I think Evans is now a fringe WR1 with Howard having breakout potential, but that’s only if Arians lets him. It could be Brate, and either way, 600 yards and a few touchdowns are fine but not what people want.
Brady surprisingly finished QB12 last year, and he has upside for a bit more. In Tampa Bay, Brady would appear to be a Top 10 lock, but without the rushing of many in the Top 10 and questionable, declining skills, he’s a mid-late round option to pair with a potential boom/bust pick… maybe… Jameis Winston? If you want safe a reliable, similar option to Drew Brees, take Brady. If you want to shoot for Top 5 upside, it’s Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, etc.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB – Carolina Panthers – Good for Bridgewater, but is it good for the Panthers receivers? Not so fast. Bridgewater had one of the lowest Air Yards Per Completion in the NFL (4.8) and aDOTs (6.1).
Teddy had a league-low 6.1 aDOT in his starts last year. Had good deep success (7-of-14 on throws 20+ yards) but hardly any volume…. Kyle Allen was more accurate between 10-20 yards a year ago although both were…lacking there. pic.twitter.com/w7zUoaXCyr
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) March 17, 2020
That’s borderline abysmal. So, yes, great news for Christian McCaffrey, but what about the rest? D.J. Moore broke out last year, but this would appear to send him a tick down. While Bridgewater helped Michael Thomas continue his amazing season, he didn’t do much else for the rest, particularly the deep-field options. So, Curtis Samuel could see an uptick with Bridgewater’s play. As of now, I’d back off Moore a bit and increase Samuel’s value, while CMC remains and Ian Thomas will see an improvement with no more Greg Olsen in the way. As for Bridgewater, he had 7.1, 16.3, 6.5, 27.3, 13.6 and 19.9 weekly fantasy point tallies last year, so there is some upside but no more than a mid-high QB2, and only if he improves his aDOT and AYPC.
Philip Rivers, QB – Indianapolis Colts – Is this an upgrade? Rivers had one of the worst seasons of his career despite throwing for 4,615 yards. That’s because he had just 23 touchdowns to go with 20 interceptions… while throwing to Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler. Rivers now has T.Y. Hilton and… Jack Doyle? Parris Campbell? Zach Pascal? We can assume the Colts will draft a receiver, but this is only a mild improvement for Hilton. More interestingly for fantasy would be Nyheim Hines, if he keeps his role. He could be the Colts version of Ekeler with a lower ceiling, and Campbell could be intriguing as the Allen option. With Rivers, he’s merely a QB2 for SuperFlex and Two-QB leagues these days.
Ryan Tannehill, QB – Tennessee Titans – As expected, this led to Derrick Henry getting the tag, and sadly for him, this always made the most business sense (use up the best years of a running back without signing him long term). Tannehill gets four years, $118 million with $62 million guaranteed. While Tannehill could be like Nick Foles and have the Titans looking for another quarterback soon, he’s the answer now. After becoming the full-time starter in Week 7, Tannehill was the No. 3 quarterback in fantasy and fourth in FPPG (22.5; Matthew Stafford’s three-game FPPG was 26.6 – don’t forget that).
Unfortunately for repeatability, Tannehill had four games where he didn’t reach 200 passing yards, and the Titans playoff run stalled when he threw for 209 in a loss to the Chiefs after 8-for-15, 72 yards and 7-for-14, 88 yards in the wins. Tannehill had 27 touchdowns in 13 games (including playoffs), but his 11.4% TD/ATT and 228.2 YPG point to major regression in 2020. Tannehill is the right quarterback for the Titans but not for your fantasy team, unless you’re in a SuperFlex or deeper (QB2 option).
RUNNING BACKS
Melvin Gordon, RB – Denver Broncos – As strange as it may seem that the Broncos wanted “to find a complement” to Phillip Lindsay when they had Royce Freeman… here we are. Even stranger was Freeman’s use, as he finished with more targets, receptions and receiving yards, plus a receiving touchdown, when Lindsay scored all seven touchdowns rushing. If we’re talking inside the 10-yard line, Lindsay was more effective and used more inside the five. Lindsay was 12-for-25 for five TDs inside the 10, while Freeman had 13-for-13 with three. All of the touchdowns for both also came inside the five, with Lindsay 8-for-14 and five, and Freeman 4-for-6 and three.
So, is Gordon going to be the guy? No, of course not. Gordon did look like his old self and was terrific in the second half (RB9 overall and in FPPG; Austin Ekeler 12th and 12th for reference). However, the Broncos offense is a step down from the Chargers, even in a down Philip Rivers year, and Drew Lock will be under center. The Broncos offensive line isn’t a significant improvement in run blocking either, ranking 10th while the Chargers were 13th.
What do we make of Gordon’s value then? Well, as mentioned, he’s not the 20+ touch guy during his peak Chargers seasons. Lindsay is going to be significantly involved, likely more than Ekeler was in the second half once Gordon was back in his flow. We should expect Lindsay to have similar value to last season (mid-low RB2 with a boost in Half and PPR, as I would look for Lindsay to regain more of his passing game work). Gordon gets the edge more in the mid-to-high RB2 range, and while Lindsay saw more work near the goal line, odds are it’s Gordon’s role now… most of the time.
Jordan Howard, RB – Miami Dolphins – Howard is as replaceable as they come. There are a ton of running backs who can do what he does: fairly straight-line runner that takes what is given. I fully expect the Dolphins to draft a running back, and that pick will be the top option on this team. Howard is a decent roster-depth, experienced-vet, signing. I wouldn’t expect him to be fantasy relevant unless the drafted back gets injured.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Robby Anderson, WR – Carolina Panthers – See above with the Bridgewater breakdown, as I don’t love this for Anderson. First, after D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey, Anderson is competing with Curtis Samuel for the No. 3 role (targets). Second, let’s assume this contract is a sign that Anderson has the job locked down, and even still, he carries the concern of Bridgewater’s deep-field ability… or lack thereof. Anderson carried a 14.6 aDOT (Samuel 15.3) and significantly more involved downfield than the short-to-intermediate game. As of today, I’m keeping Moore in the high-end WR2 range with Anderson a low-end WR3 after finishing WR39 last year (unless Matt Rhule figures out Bridgewater’s deep-ball struggles) and Samuel being significantly hurt, needing an injury to have fantasy value.
Amari Cooper, WR – Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys’ plan, well part of it (bye bye Byron Jones), worked as Cooper remains in Dallas with Dak Prescott. The status quo remains: Cooper is one of the most overvalued WR1s in fantasy football. Yes, he’ll finish as one again, but the ride will be infuriating, and possibly even more so with Michael Gallup’s development. Cooper had six weak games (single-digit scores; five if you want to excuse for injury) and three games of 23-plus, which accounted for 40.6% of his points. If you can get Cooper as your WR2, go for it, but let someone else draft the headache and take the emerging Gallup at the discount, who had six double-digit scores in six of the last nine games.
Randall Cobb, WR – Houston Texans – It only makes sense to pay David Johnson and Cobb a higher combined guaranteed amount than DeAndre Hopkins… right… right? Cobb is now in Houston, giving Watson a formidab… a… trio of receivers in Kenny Stills, Will Fuller and Cobb. This kills Keke Coutee, as Cobb is one of the top two options for Watson (or so the contract would suggest). If anything, odds are that Cobb is the most reliable, Fuller is the most productive and inconsistent (while actually healthy) and Stills sprinkles in and sees a boost if/when someone gets hurt (like he was before). Cobb could be a Half and Full-PPR WR3, maybe with a bit higher ceiling, and the same goes for Fuller. Whether you want the consistency or the boom/bust of my hated Fuller, it’s your choice.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR – New Orleans Saints – Yay! Well, for real life/the Saints… not so fast for fantasy. There has always been value in the No. 2 receiver for the Saints. The problem is that the No. 2 receiver isn’t a consistent option. We’ve seen Ted Ginn, Kenny Stills, Willie Snead, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and more fill this role. For one season, one of these would hit, but it wasn’t even with a consistent season. On top of that, Michael Thomas had 186 targets last year, plus the 97 to Alvin Kamar and 65 to Jared Cook. Ginn had just 56 and the next closest wideout was Tre’Quan Smith at 25, so even combining them gives us just 81 targets. I don’t say all of that to say Sanders won’t have any fantasy football value. I want to caution you from spending too much in drafts. Sanders should be a WR4 in drafts, as that’s what a line of 55/800/4 or so would get him.
Breshad Perriman, WR – New York Jets – Perriman replaces Anderson and is Anderson. The end. Simple.
TIGHT ENDS
Austin Hooper, TE – Cleveland Browns – Well, David Njoku already said he didn’t expect to be back, even though he’s under contract. As for Hooper, don’t expect much lost value.
Also, ALL Browns TEs accounted for 21.7% of the targets
When Ryan and Hooper played together (12 games), Hooper had 19.8% of the targets
Ryan 7.25 Y/PA Mayfield 7.17
Should have similar value https://t.co/4Aln22Pa0o
— Jake Ciely (@allinkid) March 16, 2020
No, Hooper won’t see 100% of the Browns tight end targets or be the No. 1 or 2 fantasy tight end, as he was before the injury. But the Browns, even with their numerous options, have enough targets for Hooper to succeed. Finish in the Travis Kelce/George Kittle realm is likely difficult, but Hooper should be in the Top 5 discussion.
Eric Ebron, TE – Pittsburgh Steelers – We’ve all mocked Ebron for his drops at some point, but he’s not as terrible as it may seem, as they are often highlighted by terrible timing. Clutch dropper? In any case, the Steelers are in for two years, even with Ebron coming off a disappointing season also marred by injury. Ebron put up 110/60/750 the previous year with 13 touchdowns… albeit with Andrew Luck. Ben Roethlisberger is a significant improvement over Jacoby Brissett in the passing game, but there are two remaining questions. How much does Big Ben have left, and will Ebron see a full workload with Vance McDonald around (if healthy). Those two questions, plus Ebron’s reliance on touchdowns and the unlikelihood that he sees 100+ targets puts him behind the second-year tight ends (Noah Fant, T.J. Hockenson), plus Tyler Higbee and maybe even Mike Gesicki for me. That put Ebron in the upper TE2 range.
Jimmy Graham, TE – Chicago Bears – Hopefully, we end Monday with something more exciting than this because… who cares? Jimmy Graham wasn’t fantasy relevant in either season with the Packers. That won’t change with the Bears and Mitchell Trubisky, or whoever is under center. It’s not even worth writing more, as it would be wasting as much of your time as your drafting Graham.
Jason Witten, TE – Oakland Raiders – With Witten… meh…
Nevermind.
Trades
Nick Foles, QB – Chicago Bears – While this might be an open competition, style (Matt Nagy and John DiFilippo) and fit, plus the frustration with Mitchell Trubisky’s inconsistency and lack of development (arguable decline) points to Foles being the starter. So, is this an improvement for the Bears receiving corps?
Foles has a career 8.5 aDOT, matching that mark last year in his limited Jaguars starts. In fact, outside of his down 2018 season with the Eagles, Foles aDOT has ranged from 7.8-9.6 through his career. For comparison, Trubisky has an 8.3 career aDOT, going 7.8, 8.9 and 8.0 in his seasons. So, there doesn’t appear to be any gain there. Let’s talk completion percentage. Foles career 62.3 and 65.8 last year, while Trubisky 63.5 and 63.5 (that’s not a typo). No real sign for improvement there either.
Foles has been a bit more effective in the red zone, and in Trubisky’s disappointing 2019 season, he had seven games without a touchdown and three more with just one. Now we have players’ stocks pointing up… and let’s be honest, the eye test here is why film/game watching matters. The stats might be comparable in some ways, but Foles is a definite improvement from 2019 Trubisky.
Allen Robinson is coming off his best season since 2015, and while he might have been a fringe WR1, this locks him in and a 2015-like performance is a reasonable ceiling (though a bit much to ask). The biggest beneficiary is likely Anthony Miller (no, not Jimmy Graham). Miller came out of college as one of the smoother receivers in the draft, and injuries stunted his growth a bit (and Trubisky). Miller looked to be on the breakout path from Weeks 11-15, and he should easily eclipse his 85/52/656/2… particularly the efficiency and touchdowns. He’s in the WR4 range now with plenty of upside for more.
As for Beowulf Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars, he’s the starter with a quartet of D.J. Chark, Dede Westbrook, Chris Conley and Keelan Cole. Minshew did way more than expected for a rookie of his draft pedigree, and the good news for fantasy is that he lacks fear. Minshew only had an aDOT of 7.1, but the majority of Chark’s breakout and all of Conley’s touchdowns came with Minshew at quarterback. Westbrook didn’t have the breakout year many expected, but Chark did and then some. Chark is back in the WR2 group with Westbrook and Conley mixing it up (likely inconsistently) as WR4s. Minshew and Foles are both mid-level QB2 for the 2020 season.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR – Arizona Cardinals – Is this real life?
DeAndre Hopkins and a fourth round pick go to Cards for David Johnson and a second round pick this year and a fourth round pick next year.
— John McClain (@McClain_on_NFL) March 16, 2020
What? I mean WHAT?!
I don’t know what the Texans are doing, and if you’re a fan, you have my blessing to change teams this offseason. I’ll break down Johnson below, but for Hopkins, there isn’t much, if any, lost value. Murray’s passing numbers, as a rookie mind you, weren’t far off from Deshaun Watson’s (who should demand out of Houston at this point).
As a reminder, Larry Fitzgerald is back for another season, but if Christian Kirk is healthy, he’s the No. 2 receiver with Fitzgerald now the No. 3. Again, it’s if Kirk is healthy, but Fitzgerald loses what little fantasy upside he had, and Kirk takes a hit from being the potential No. 1 option. Kirk is more of a WR3/4 now. As for Murray, this easily helps him take a step forward in his passing numbers, as he continues to develop. Murray was already QB8 as a rookie and just five more touchdowns (no other improvement) would have put him as QB5. That’s his value now… Top 5 easy.
With the Texans, they added Cobb (seen above), and we’ll have to wait and see if they add more via the draft. No matter what, losing Hopkins is a big blow. He accounted for 150/104/1,165/7 in his “down year” last season, and no mix of Cobb, Fuller and Stills will make up for his loss. Watson only threw for 3,852 and 26 while finishing as QB4, showing a good amount of his value comes via his legs. However, his yards were higher in 2018, the rushing touchdowns were a career-best, and you would have to put him behind at least Russell Wilson and likely even Murray and Prescott as well. Add in Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, and we’re already at QB6 without Aaron Rodgers or Jameis Winston (depending) yet.
David Johnson, RB – Houston Texans – And the other part of the shocking deal is Johnson now in Houston. Of course, if Johnson is even 90% of what he used to be, this is a terrific addition for the Texans (and Deshaun Watson), though, that’s if you don’t factor in losing Hopkins to do it. David Johnson has RB1 ability on any team, especially in Houston, where Carlos Hyde rushed for 1,070 yards and six touchdowns last year (245 carries).
Health is Johnson’s problem, and it’s fair to wonder if Johnson isn’t done, performance-wise. Duke Johnson’s value remains what it’s been, and we’ll have to watch the NFL Draft to see just how much confidence the Texans have in Johnson. If they don’t make any more major additions, Johnson could be a nice RB3 gamble with Top 15-20 upside, particularly in Half and Full-PPR leagues.
Stefon Diggs, WR – Buffalo Bills – Well, the Boy Who Cried Wolf is finally on a new team. Diggs heads to the Bills, becoming their top receiver. John Brown was the No. 1 last year, finishing with 115/72/1,060/6, but don’t forget about Cole Beasley and his 105/67/778/6. While Diggs hasn’t played a full season, he has 149/102/1,021/9 and 93/63/1,130/6 the past two years. You can see that Diggs doesn’t need 100 targets to finish as a WR2… but he will with Josh Allen. Unlike Kirk Cousins and his 3,603/26 line with a 69.1 completion percentage, Allen had 3,089/20 and 58.8%. Going back to Brown, he had 22 more targets yet averaged 0.5 fewer FPPG and had two more games with single-digit points. Josh Allen remains locked in as a Top 10 quarterback, thanks to his rushing and now better receiving corps. Diggs’ exceptional route running will help, but Allen still has to hit Diggs, as mentioned. As for Brown, he falls to being a low-end WR3 with a few WR1 weeks still in store. Beasley gets a major downgrade to WR5 status, even in PPR. Devin Singletary might see a slight uptick with more space to run.
As for the Vikings, they’re not going into Week 1 with Adam Thielen and Olabisi Johnson as their top options. Thielen moves back into WR1 territory similar to 2018, where his 153 targets turned into 113/1,373/9 and a WR7 finish. The Vikings could easily draft a receiver in this loaded draft, and while Johnson could compete with whoever is added, anyone would be more of a WR3/4 at best given the Vikings more run-focused (rely on Dalvin Cook) approach.
Hayden Hurst, TE – Atlanta Falcons – They let Austin Hooper walk and get his replacement… of sorts. Mind you, Hooper is younger than Hurst is and has been much more successful. Granted, Hurst was efficient on his 40 targets (30/349/2). So, give Hurst just 80 targets, and you get 60/700/4, which is around TE8/9… and a dangerous game to play (extrapolating). Hurst is a good blocker, which means he should be on the field for the majority of snaps, so 80+ targets are attainable, and a TE1 finish is within reason.
Franchise Tags
Dak Prescott, QB – Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys will still move towards working out a longterm deal, but this locks Prescott in Dallas and as a Top 10 quarterback.
Derrick Henry, RB – Franchise Tags – Business as usual. The Titans will remain a run-first team and had the ranked fourth-best in run blocking according to Football Outsiders. Even with just 18 receptions, Henry still finished as RB3 in Half and RB5 in PPR. Henry was seventh in red zone rushing attempts (42), ninth inside the 10 (24) and 13th inside the five (10). He was second, second and third in touchdowns for each and scored 13 of his 16 rushing touchdowns in the red zone. That tells you the touchdown-reliant risk with him, but Henry is a different beast (intended word choice). He’s a definite Top 10 running back, but in Half and Full-PPR, you might want to pass if the price is too high into the first round.
Kenyan Drake, RB – Arizona Cardinals (transition) – It makes sense. Drake looked good and even great at times in Arizona, and once he arrived, Drake was RB4 the rest of the way and RB3 in FPPG. Now, he did 24.2, 31.9 and 39.1 in three games and several single-digit scores, so he was a bit of a DeSean Jackson running back. Nevertheless, he’s the lead option with Chase Edmonds as the same ol’ Edmonds. Drake is a mid-high RB2 for 2020 unless the Cardinals add a significant piece this offseason.
A.J. Green, WR – Cincinnati Bengals – We have to wonder if Green will try the holdout game with the Bengals rebuilding. We also have to wonder how many games Green will play, even if he signs quickly. Green is still a WR1 talent, but even with how good Joe Burrow looks, injury, time off and a rookie quarterback puts Green in the WR2 conversation.
Hunter Henry, TE – Los Angeles Chargers – Even with quarterback uncertainty and his injury history, Henry has Top 5 tight end potential. At worst, he’s a Top 10 option in fantasy football… as long as he’s on the field.
Photo: AP Photo / Patrick Semansky
