Bottom Line

After contract drama early in the offseason and then a franchise tag, Barkley eventually re-signed with the Giants on a 1-year deal.

For 2023, at least, he’s positioned for another strong year alongside HC Brian Daboll and QB Daniel Jones. An upgraded supporting cast should help retain his double-digit TD upside.

If his receiving efficiency improves, we could even see Barkley challenge for overall RB1 totals.

What We Learned Last Year

• Barkley enjoyed a resurgence alongside NFL Coach of the Year Brian Daboll.
• Good health differentiated 2022 from recent seasons.
  • Barkley suffered a neck stinger late in the year but played through it. No other issue landed him on the injury report.
  • Barkley sat out Week 18 to rest for the postseason.
• Across 16 games, he tallied four top-5 PPR lines; only three outside the top 17.
  • Overall, he ranked as the RB5 in PPR.
• Barkley finished fourth in carries, fourth in yards, and tied for fifth in TDs. The carries and yardage marked a career high.
• Volume was vital, as Barkley’s underlying metrics weren’t flawless.
  • Among 24 RBs with 200+ carries, Barkley slotted seventh in Pro Football Focus rushing grade but 21st in elusive rating and 19th in yards after contact per attempt.
  • He ranked 30th at the position in success rate, according to Football Outsiders; 21st in rushing DVOA.
• Barkley’s receiving numbers proved inconsistent, too.
  • He recorded just 5.9 yards per catch and 0 TDs on 57 receptions.
  • His 8.4 yards after catch per reception was strong, but he had a career-low 0.94 yards per route run.
• Barkley needed to shoulder the load for a Giants offense that lacked impact talent. Only two RBs tallied more touches (352).
• He ran behind a Giants’ O-line that ranked a mid-pack 19th in PFF rushing grade and 26th in run block win rate.

What to Expect in 2023

• The Giants return HC Brian Daboll and OC Mike Kafka after ranking eighth in rush attempts per game; seventh in run rate.
• Now 26 and with nearly 1,200 career touches, Barkley’s likely already hit peak performance as an NFL RB. But our research with historical aging curves shows he’s not in for an on-field decline this year.
• Any lack of efficiency can be overcome by volume.
  • The Giants made no significant backfield investments, drafting Oklahoma’s Eric Gray in Round 5 and retaining veteran Matt Breida.
  • There’s no clear handcuff, but Gray would be our pick right now. He’s still not a must-draft for Barkley managers.
• The Giants applied the franchise tag to Barkley in March.
• Barkley skipped OTAs and threatened to holdout into the season. But he eventually agreed to a 1-year deal to stay in New York.
• This O-line returns three locked-in starters: LT Andrew Thomas, RT Evan Neal, and RG Mark Glowinski. No issues with that trio.
• New York used a Round 2 pick on C John Michael Schmitz. On his run-blocking, NFL Network’s Lance Zierlein said: “His overall technique and teamwork in the run game should create a plug-and-play opportunity in the pros.”
• LG looks like a potential weak spot, making it one to watch in camp. Former Raven Ben Bredeson is the likely favorite.