Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has as much upside as any quarterback in fantasy. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in the second half of last season and will not be ready for the start of the 2023 campaign. When might Murray return, and what is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Kyler Murray’s Fantasy Outlook
There are so many moving parts when it comes to Murray’s fantasy outlook that it’s difficult to know where to even start. We at least know for sure now that he will miss the first four games of the season as he will begin the season on the PUP list.
When healthy, we know Murray is a top-six fantasy quarterback. He had his worst season in 2022, averaging 18.9 points per game, but still finished as the QB7. That also included the game in which he tore his ACL, where he scored just 0.7 fantasy points.
While that may seem impressive, a deeper analysis of Murray’s fantasy production reveals that his path to the top six might not be what fantasy managers desire.
In Murray’s career 2020 season, he averaged 24.4 ppg. But it was front-loaded. He averaged 29.2 ppg from Weeks 1-11. Then, during the most important weeks of the fantasy season, Murray disappeared. From Weeks 12-17, he averaged just 16.5 ppg.
Of course, those first 11 weeks matter. So, in 2021, Murray was once again drafted as an elite fantasy quarterback. That year, he once again was impressive overall, averaging 22.2 ppg. However, it was a similar story.
Murray posted three games with over 30 fantasy points. Those three games accounted for 32.3% of his total fantasy points. In his other 11 games, Murray averaged 19.1 ppg. Those aren’t bad numbers, but they’re far from elite.
For three weeks, fantasy managers got the best quarterback in fantasy. For the other 11 weeks, they got Kirk Cousins.
Last year, fantasy managers got a more consistent Murray, but he was at 20.7 ppg if we remove the game in which he tore his ACL.
All of this is to say Murray hasn’t been quite as good as the final numbers suggest. Now, he’s returning to the worst offense he’s been a part of and coming off a devastating knee injury.
We know Murray won’t be out there in Week 1, but we don’t know when exactly he will return.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Murray at His ADP?
It wouldn’t surprise me if Murray made it back by Week 6. It wouldn’t surprise me if he missed the entire season. We also don’t know how effective he will be if and when he does return.
8/28 Update: The Cardinals did not activate Murray from the PUP list. As a result, he will miss the first four weeks of the season at minimum. In light of their recent moves, including releasing Colt McCoy, it seems increasingly unlikely that Murray plays at all this season. Proceed with caution.
This makes Murray an extremely volatile asset and one fantasy managers don’t seem interested in drafting. His ADP sits at QB24, No. 176 overall. If Murray was going to return by midseason and be Kyler Murray, that’s a free QB1 over the second half of the season. But when he returns, will he run? My guess is no.
The Cardinals project to be the worst team in football this season. What incentive do they have to push Murray to return if they’re clearly going nowhere? And if he does return, why would he push himself to take any unnecessary risks?
MORE: 2023 Fantasy Player Projections
If Murray isn’t running, he’s nothing more than a low-end QB1. Is that a player you want to sit on for half the season?
DeAndre Hopkins is gone. Murray will be throwing to Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, Greg Dortch, and perhaps Michael Wilson. He will be doing so on a team with no real playoff aspirations. There’s also a very plausible scenario where the Cardinals are overly cautious with Murray because they plan to draft Caleb Williams and move on from Murray in the offseason.
Despite all of this, I am confident that Murray will be a top-12 QB when he returns. I will not pay any premium price to stash him on my IR for an indeterminate period of time. As a result, I have him ranked at QB18. That is the point at which I feel the juice is worth the proverbial squeeze.
