The plight of the NFL running back has been well documented. Supply and demand economics continue to play out within the position, sending contracts, both in terms of dollar value and length, to the lowest point in years.
To my knowledge, no one has highlighted what we are about to see take place in 2024 and how it could shake up dynasty rosters. Simply put, 2024 is going to see a tsunami of free agent running backs hitting the market, the likes of which we have, arguably, never seen before.
Every season there is material migration as players reach free agency and change teams. The impact of these moves can vary widely, in some cases providing new opportunities for players benefitting from an increased role to a previously productive player struggling in a new scheme, increased competition or poor quarterback play. Free agency movement tracking is a must for the engaged dynasty coach in any year but the projected migration of running backs in 2024 looks to be epic.
The dynasty running back continues to lose value. Increased usage of multiple-back committees, reduced role and, seemingly, increased injury rates continue to erode the value of the position that once headlined fantasy football. To be sure, it’s very much a have and have-not situation. A dynasty coach rostering anything close to a three-down back is golden, possessing a clear advantage on game day. Those who don’t, and those numbers are rising every season, are left to piece together a patchwork mosaic of backs with the hope that production results.
Going forward, I expect the single-contract running back will continue to be all the rage. Whether you agree or disagree with market mechanics at the position, and it most certainly is just that, dynasty coaches can’t lose sight of the shifting landscape. Before touching upon some strategic notes, let me start be referencing a short list of 2024 Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA) running backs as listed by Spotrac.com, broken down by 2023 contract value:
2024 UFA Running Backs
With a very loose projection, I count at least 15 backs who could compete to start if given the opportunity. I’ll leave you to perform your own assessment, but the path before us is clear. We’re about to see a dramatic talent shift at running back. To keep this article shorter, I’m not going down the rabbit hole with my thoughts as to the value of the free agent backs or their projected team fits. I will highlight those later in another article.
Strategy
So, as a dynasty manager, how are you to use this information to your benefit?
When considering that question, I’m focusing on three assumptions:
- The dynasty value decline (age cliff) for running backs is now 28, arguably 27
- Running Back By Committee (RBBC) is here to stay and is expanding
- Commoditization of the NFL running back by the NFL is real
The “age cliff” exists at the intersection of upsloping peak production and downsloping age (value declines as age increases), impacting return value in trades such that the value after that intersection brings significantly less return.
No one is going to argue No. 2 in that it’s clear that two- and three-back committees are now favored by NFL teams due to specialization and propensity for injury.
Point No. 3 is a sad state of affair with the NFL running back. The position is exciting, fans still desire jerseys of their favorite backs, and there’s no questioning the impact that a top back will have on his team. Dynasty managers will always be on the lookout for the next Christian McCaffrey. But the fact remains, NFL coaches and owners have been far more successful at identifying and signing late-round rookies or undrafted free agents in the pursuit of assembling a successful and productive committee. In a position fraught with injury risk and steep decline related to age, second contracts with a running back’s original team will become even more of a rarity.
Using these assumptions, here is how I’m using this information.
First and foremost, when understanding what was to come in 2024, I ceased all acquisition of most all names on this list. I do not want to acquire any RB ahead of a near-certain situation change. NFL teams simply will not be willing to pay even veteran minimums for most backs given younger and cheaper options producing at a similar level. I fully expect one-year rentals to increase in popularity — this could have been No. 4 on my assumptions above — going forward. With the NFL salary cap working against the teams, the running back position is no longer a priority.
Secondly, I’m working my list of identified running backs who could benefit from departures above them on the depth chart. As it relates to this strategy, understand that I’m always performing this activity, and one of my favorite tactics is targeting young backs who may have to wait two years before seeing their first opportunities. I like to target rookie runners lower on the depth chart toward the end of their first season, when their value is at the lowest due to impatience by their dynasty managers.
Backs I have actively targeted for potential price-based acquisition are: Tyjae Spears, Zamir White, Isaiah Spiller, Tyler Allgeier, Jerome Ford, Israel Abanikanda, Kenneth Gainwell, Chris Rodriguez, Jordan Mason, Tyrion Davis-Price, Chase Brown, Deneric Prince and DeWayne McBride.
With some names such as Tyjae Spears and Jerome Ford, their seasons have already unfolded such that they have seen value appreciation beyond what I’m willing to entertain. With Ford, I had been acquiring him a year ago in anticipation of an eventual larger role in 2024 without any expectations that Nick Chubb would fall to injury in 2023. Israel Abanikanda has now risen with the departure of Michael Carter (ARI). Those backs holding the most interest to me are Tyler Allgeier, Jordan Mason, Chase Brown, Isaiah Spiller and Deneric Prince. Unless you play in a deep-roster format, you may still find these backs available without cost in your free agent pool.
As a potential seller of names on the free agent list, unless I’m in full rebuild mode, I’m also sitting on my hands. Values are in such decline currently that I’d much prefer risk the future rather than accept current basement-level return value. With productive and valued names such as Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler, their markets have dried up and return value in trade is far less than that of their potential 2024 production. Even younger assets such as Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs are in steep decline. That’s the risk-reward gamble managers rostering these names will have to take.
For the true dynasty gamblers among us, feel free to take a low-cost stab at names such as Clyde Edwards-Helaire, AJ Dillon, Zack Moss or even the injury prone J.K. Dobbins.
Summary
In conclusion, this article is very different from my typical advice commentary.
The most difficult aspect of dispensing dynasty advice remains the significant range of player values held by individual managers. Where one manager sees trash, another sees treasure, and what lies in between is negotiation. This will never be more evident when surveying the 2024 running back free agents list above.
My strongest suggestion would be to follow my lead on the upcoming 2024 free agency glut at running back and do not acquire any names on this list until well after the NFL draft. If you possess any of these names and are looking to move them in trade, the window is open and should remain so until shortly after the conclusion of the 2023 NFL season. Just understand that veteran running back values have never been lower, and I see little reversal of that trend into the near future.
If you have thoughts or questions, please be sure to leave a comment and also give me a follow on Twitter and Threads: @DLF_Jeff
As always, be well, be happy and, please, be good to each other!
(Photo of Josh Jacobs: Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports)
