Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott enter Week 14 as the co-favorites for the NFL MVP. If you’ve followed the quarterback rates the last several weeks, you could see this coming.

Meanwhile, Jordan Love is the same guy as Aaron Rodgers in 2008.

Patrick Mahomes is becoming the poster child for roller-coaster performances.

And in Jake Browning we trust?

Here’s my weekly look at how quarterbacks stand using traditional statistics like passer rating, along with advanced metrics like Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback, via TruMedia, to provide a number-based outlook of the state of the position. Quarterbacks are listed by EPA per dropback.

I’ve expanded the rankings a bit to include quarterbacks with only a couple of starts. The parameter for being ranked is a minimum of 140 dropbacks this season.

I’ll also give a sneak peek at the upcoming matchups using EPA per dropback for the quarterbacks and the defenses they will face in Week 14.

Nos. 1-10

Purdy is in the midst of a remarkable run. The San Francisco 49ers quarterback only produced his third-best passer rating this season at 148.8 in Sunday’s win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Take it a step further. It’s only his third-best passer rating in the last four weeks! And his fourth best this season was a measly 144.4 rating … against the Dallas Cowboys. What? How is that even a thing? His 0.73 EPA rate Sunday was the second best of the season and his career.

But … how close is Prescott to Purdy? Here’s a look at numbers put up by the two passers from Weeks 5-13, which starts with their head-to-head meeting in Week 5:

Prescott and Purdy have been head and shoulders better than every quarterback within that span. The Cowboys’ passer finally faced his first major test since Week 9 against the Eagles during the team’s Week 13 win over the Seattle Seahawks. This one tested Prescott’s mettle and he prevailed, leading three fourth-quarter scoring drives to pull off the comeback.

Tua Tagovailoa produced his best rates since Week 6 against the Carolina Panthers. He yielded the second-highest passer rating and EPA rate of his career in the Week 13 win over the Washington Commanders. Not surprising, his best rates (0.95 EPA rate, 155.8 passer rating) came in the 70-20 thrashing of the Denver Broncos in Week 3.

C.J. Stroud posted his second straight week with a 100-plus passer rating in the win over the Broncos in Week 13. But he yielded his first negative EPA rate since the Week 8 loss vs. Carolina. Much of that occurred because of his 18.2 percent rate on third-down passing conversions against Denver. Still, Stroud’s play has been consistently good overall since Week 2.

The peaks and valleys of Patrick Mahomes. It’s been up and down the past six games for the Kansas City Chiefs’ passer and the Chiefs are 3-3 in those six games. Mahomes has a -0.15 EPA rate and 69.6 passer rating in the three losses and a 0.30 EPA rate and 121.1 passer rating in the three wins.

Justin Herbert finished with a passer rating below 76.0 for the fifth time this season during the Los Angeles Chargers’ win over the New England Patriots in Week 13. Oddly, Herbert compiled a combined -0.16 EPA rate and 71.0 passer rating in the Chargers’ last two wins (Week 9 vs. Jets, Week 13 vs. Patriots).

Jalen Hurts’ single-game completion percentage has dropped each game since Week 8 (bye in Week 10):

• Week 8 at Washington: 76.3
• Week 9 vs. Dallas: 73.9
• Week 11 at Kansas City: 63.6
• Week 12 vs. Buffalo: 58.1
• Week 13 vs. San Francisco: 57.8

That collection of opponents is no joke, and the Eagles went 4-1 in that stretch.

Matthew Stafford’s last two games represent his best two-game stretch in terms of EPA rates and passer rating since the NFC Wild Card and Divisional rounds in the 2021 season. Now, the Los Angeles Rams have won three in a row and are in the NFC playoff hunt for the first time since Stafford last produced these types of numbers.

If you’re wondering who’s been the next best QB during the last few weeks beyond Purdy and Prescott, look no further than the Green Bay Packers’ Jordan Love. From Weeks 9-13, Love ranks third in EPA rate (0.25), second in total EPA (46.7) and fourth in passer rating (106.3). So how does Love — in his first 12 starts as the full-time starter — compare to Aaron Rodgers over the same span?

Pretty similar, I’d say.

Nos. 11-20

Jared Goff reverted back to the one we watched in Week 10 against the Chargers (0.46 EPA rate, 122.4 passer rating). That’s exactly what the Detroit Lions were looking for in Week 13 against the New Orleans Saints. It’s also the third time in four games that Goff yielded a 1oo.o passer rating or higher.

It’s the third consecutive week that Baker Mayfield posted a negative EPA rate for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the team won in rainy conditions against the Carolina Panthers in Week 13. Mayfield also produced his second-worst passer rating of the season.

Geno Smith nearly carries a dubious distinction. The Seahawks QB’s Week 13 EPA rate was the second best of any passer this year in a loss. Herbert edged out Smith in L.A.’s Week 10 loss to the Lions. This was also Smith’s best EPA rate of this season and third best of his career as a starter. A tough way to pick up a fourth loss in five games.

Trevor Lawrence compiled his best passer rating of the season and second best of his career against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13. It was his third straight week of an EPA rate of at least 0.27. And then Lawrence sustained an ankle injury and the Jacksonville Jaguars lost the game in OT. Backup C.J. Beathard has experience, but will he be able to fend off the rest of the AFC South if Lawrence misses extended time?

The “Who Dats” have started to sour on the New Orleans Saints’ Derek Carr. He ended Week 13 with some great rates, though, after throwing an interception (that wasn’t his fault) on his first attempt in the loss to the Lions. (Though teammate Michael Thomas, who is on IR, pointed out an open receiver Carr should have thrown to on the play, via X. Thomas later deactivated his account after posting several messages during the game.) If Carr is sidelined again with injuries suffered in Week 13, Jameis Winston seems in line to start in Week 14.

It’s the second time the Indianapolis Colts’ Gardner Minshew yielded a 100.0-plus passer rating this season. At least this one ended in a dramatic win over the Tennessee Titans, rather than a heartbreaking loss, like in Week 7 against the Cleveland Browns. This was easily Minshew’s best outing during the Colts’ four-game winning streak.

Browning’s rates weren’t actually terrible in the Bengals’ Week 12 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers (-0.06 EPA rate, 96.2 passer rating). But his exceptional numbers from Week 13 — 0.44 EPA rate, 115.5 passer rating — have Cincinnati still thinking playoffs, even without Joe Burrow.

You can’t blame the Titans for moving on to rookie Will Levis. His rates have been better than what Ryan Tannehill produced as the starter this season. Still, Levis yielded his lowest completion percentage of the season and it marked the second time his rate has been below 50 percent.

Nos. 21-30

The Broncos’ five-game winning streak ended with a stinker from Russell Wilson. He amassed his second-worst EPA rate and passer rating of this season in the loss to the Texans.

It only seems to be getting worse for the Commanders’ Sam Howell. He amassed his second-worst passer rating and EPA rate in the Week 13 loss to the Dolphins. Howell has put up a -0.19 EPA rate and 64.7 passer rating over the past three games.

Some of the game’s best quarterbacks have floundered against the New York Jets this season, so it should be no shock that Desmond Ridder’s rates weren’t exactly swell in Week 13. It’s not the norm to have a 67.1 passer rating in a two-week span and win both games. And with that, the Falcons enter Week 14 as the NFC South leaders!

Kyler Murray yielded his first positive EPA rate since returning to action in the Arizona Cardinals’ Week 13 win over the Steelers. He also tallied his best passer rating since his return, but his lowest completion percentage (56.5 percent) as well.

Nos. 31-37

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ Mitchell Trubisky amassed some good rates (0.38 EPA rate, 104.3 passer rating) in relief of an injured Kenny Pickett on Sunday. That’s probably not comforting for Steelers fans, though, after another scant scoreboard showing.

Joe Flacco yielded a -0.10 EPA rate and a 75.4 passer rating in the loss to the Rams as the fourth different Cleveland Browns starting QB this season. Those numbers were still far better than what P.J. Walker or Dorian Thompson-Robinson had produced as a starter.

Bailey Zappe chalked up a -0.38 EPA rate, 68.9 passer rating and zero points in his first start for the Patriots this season in place of Mac Jones.

Bryce Young still has only one game with a positive EPA rate and the Panther became the first team eliminated from postseason contention.

Zach Wilson? Tim Boyle? Trevor Siemian? Whatever.

The Tommy DeVito dream isn’t over this year, even with Tyrod Taylor back practicing for the New York Giants. At least this situation is more stable than the Jets.

Week 14 defense vs. QB EPA matchups

(Photo of Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott; Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)