With all of the discussion surrounding positional value, running backs, and our own David Montgomery up for contract after this season; I wanted to put a finger on what to expect from a second contract running back. To do this, I created a metric that looks at the top 10 running backs from each of the past 5 seasons throughout 6 statistical categories. I didn’t consider the receiving aspect in the metric as I figured that would work itself out in the end, and I was correct in that assumption.

To start, let me break down the metric I used and how I came about it. I headed to PFR to look at the top 20 running backs from each season based on attempts. This gave me my pool of players to examine. From that pool of players, I ranked each of them according to a top 10 in each statistical category. I then gave the number 1 player in that category 10 points, 2nd received 9 points, 3rd received 8 points, and so on down to the 10th player in that category receiving 1 point. The only deviation to this scoring system was the category of Games Played. Each player in the top 20 received 1 point for each game they played.

After factoring their total points were for the season; that score was paired with scores from any other time they appeared in the top 20 in the previous 5 seasons and averaged out to give an average seasonal score. Then, I compiled a list of the top 25 players based on their average seasonal score to give me a solid pool of players to compare with our own David Montgomery.

For a working example:

Ezekiel Elliott was a top 20 running back last season based on attempts, so here is his scoring in each of the categories.

1. Age. He was not one of the 10 youngest running backs in the top 20, so he received no points for that category.
2. Games. He played in 17 games and received 17 points.
3. Attempts. He was 7th in attempts and received 4 points.
4. Yards. He was 7th in yards and received 4 points.
5. Touchdowns. He was 6th in touchdowns and received 5 points.
6. Yards/Attempt. He was not in the top 10 for Y/A so he received no points.

That gives Zeke a seasonal score of 30.

He was also a top 20 running back based on attempts in each of the previous 4 seasons as well; scoring 24, 44, 41, and 23.

Adding those 5 numbers together and taking the average gives us Zeke’s Seasonal Average Score (SAS) of 32.4.

So how does our own David Montgomery score? Not good. The top ten RBs for the last 5 years all have a SAS above 32 and Monty came in with a 25.3, placing him 19th overall. To put that into perspective, oft injured Todd Gurley landed on the list with a 33.8, and he scored a 15 in his final season.

Here is the top 10 for reference, and it’s sure to bring up some talking points:

Rank

Player

SAS

AAV

1

Jonathan Taylor*

55.5

2

Christian McCaffrey

44.5

$16,015,875

3

Saquon Barkley

41.0

$7,798,688

4

Najee Harris*

41.0

5

Derrick Henry

39.3

$12,500,000

6

Dalvin Cook

37.7

$12,600,000

7

Nick Chubb

36.0

$12,200,000

8

Joe Mixon

35.0

$12,000,000

9

Todd Gurley

33.8

$8,177,714

10

Jordan Howard

33.0

$1,588,727

11

Ezekiel Elliott

32.4

$15,000,000

12

Josh Jacobs*

32.3

13

Damien Harris*

32.0

14

James Robinson*

32.0

15

Aaron Jones

31.5

$12,000,000

AVERAGE

36.4

$10,988,100

So what does someone do with this score and how can we properly value Monty for a second contract? My quick answer is we don’t. Based on production, we should not be offering Monty a second contract. How much of that lack of efficiency falls on the shoulders of Matt Nagy’s offense remains to be seen. But unless Monty can put up much different numbers than he has in the previous 3 seasons, he should be allowed to leave on the open market.

So what if he performs like a top 10 back now that Nagy is gone? What is his proper value as a top 10 back?

For that, I took a look at the top 10 RBs from this list of 25 that meet 2 criteria. First, they need to be at least 3 years in the league. Second, they need to be on their second contract. This removes Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris, and James Robinson from the list. So that leaves us with a top 10, 3+ years in the league, 2nd contract+ running backs list of:

Christian McCaffrey

Saquon Barkley

Derrick Henry

Dalvin Cook

Nick Chubb

Joe Mixon

Todd Gurley

Jordan Howard

Ezekiel Elliott

Aaron Jones

To determine the value of David Montgomery, I looked at the AAV for each of these running backs. Here are a few points of interest.

Top 10 has:

• AAV of $10.988 million
• Average score of 36.4 for a total of $301,705 per point
• A rushing stat line of 633/2912/23/4.6 through their first 3 seasons
• A receiving stat line of 119/1025/5/8.3 through their first 3 seasons
• Most attempts – Zeke Elliott (868)
• Least attempts – Aaron Jones (450)
• Best Rushing Y/A – Nick Chubb (5.2)
• Worst Rushing Y/A – Joe Mixon & Todd Gurley (4.2)
• Best Receiving Y/R – Todd Gurley (10.2)
• Worst Receiving Y/R – Jordan Howard (7.9)
• Highest AAV – CMC ($16mil)
• Lowest AAV – Jordan Howard ($1.58mil)
• RB’s who enter the league after their 22nd birthday miss fewer games than those entering before their 22nd birthday.
• No RB with more than 310 carries finished the next season without missing at least 4 games.
• Each backs most prolific season was a sweet spot of 240 to 280 carries. Anything less produced a poor Y/A. Anything more set them up for injury the following season.

So to wrap things up, unless Monty puts up a 36 SAS season, he isn’t worth a 3 year $30 million extension. And even if he puts up better numbers, he still should only be paid $301,705 per point. At his current SAS that means he would carry a $7.6 million AAV. I for one am not a fan of paying that kind of coin to a Melvin Gordon clone. Monty is lacking in efficiency, and not by a small margin. Considering the worst in the top 10 was Jordan Howard with 4.2 Y/A and 7.9 Y/R, Monty has a long way to go. In fact, Montgomery landed 3 spots behind Leonard Fournette who carries an AAV of $6mil. For reference, here’s how the two compare in their first 3 seasons in the league.

Rank

Player

SAS

AAV

Att

Yds

TD

Y/A

Rec

Yds

TD

Y/R

16

Leonard Fournette

30.5

$5,955,576

666

2631

17

4.0

134

1009

2

7.5

19

David Montgomery

25.3

714

2808

21

3.9

121

924

3

7.6

One thing you may notice is Jordan Howard’s appearance on this list. That isn’t a typo, and I rechecked the math. For those of you who thought Howard was a decent back and worthy to stay a Bear, you are not wrong. Jordan Howard put up fine numbers as a rusher. But his downfall, and the reason he isn’t seeing big numbers since leaving the Bears is his receiving. I will applaud him for working so hard to hone that skillset, but he was and is still lagging. If this were 1989, Jordan Howard would be a 10 year running back. But as the passing game has seen a metamorphosis, so has the running back position. As I posited in a previous fanpost, the running back position is most certainly not dead, in fact it’s becoming more prominent. But today’s running back MUST bring a quality receiving aspect to their game to be relevant. Marshall Faulk set the standard and today’s NFL demands 32 of him. Unfortunately, there are barely 10 of him – and David Montgomery isn’t one.