The Calm Before the Storm

The Calm Before the Storm

Not everyone can be a star right away. Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Magic and Larry, and others, they only come around once every so often. Sometimes it takes it a while for potential to be fulfilled or even show a sign of emergence.

Such was the case for two of games biggest stars today, Stephen Curry and Giannis Antetokounmpo. About eight years ago, Curry was this skinny, oft-injured point guard for the dismal Golden State Warriors. And more recently, five years ago, Giannis was still this raw but talented youngster for an inconsistent Milwaukee Bucks team. There were signs that hinted at their impending superstardom. Consider this the prelude.

Let’s take it back to 2013. The league was different then. Out East, LeBron was the unquestioned best player in the NBA. Philly was among the worst teams and had absolutely no expectations moving forward. New York had two teams that were actually competitive.

In the West, the monster trade in the offseason that sent Dwight to the Lakers and Andre Igoudala to the Nuggets (trade much larger than just this) yielded some mixed results. Another year of Lob City for the Clippers. And the two powers at the top in Oklahoma City and San Antonio.

Down that list were the Golden State Warriors. A team that hadn’t had a winning record since the 2008 season. Under second year coach, Mark Jackson, the Warriors surprised everyone by finishing 47-35 and nabbing the sixth seed. Along the way they were led by the lightskin wonder Stephen Curry.

It was a breakout year for Curry, and a welcomed one at that. He missed 56 games in 2012 and signed a four year deal in November. Players like Eric Gordon and Ty Lawson signed for more money. His season averages of 22.9 PPG and 6.9 APG on 59 TS% (played 78 games) did not merit an All-Star selection or All-NBA honors. He broke Ray Allen’s single season three point record (272) and had one of the greatest shooting displays in MSG history.

Heading into the playoffs, the Warriors were huge underdogs against the 57 win Denver Nuggets. They were inexperienced, going up against a resilient Nuggets team littered with vets like Andre Igoudala, Andre Miller, Ty Lawson, etc and they were led by George Karl, one of the game’s greatest coaches. Teams built like this do not have good track records in the playoffs, but these were the Warriors, of course they’d beat them.

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Golden State made it abundantly clear that they were for real in game one. It took a game-winning layup and 28 points from Andre Miller to eek out a victory at home. In that game, Curry scored 19 points on 20 shots. And then the avalanche came… Game two Jarrett Jack was inserted into the lineup, alleviating some of the ballhandling responsibilities from Steph. The Warriors shot a combined 14-25 from 3, led by Steph and Klay who made 9.

After a poor performance in game one, Curry unleashed hell on Denver with 30 points 13 assists and just 1 turnover. He carried that performance into the next game, and the next. That game four in particular, featured a 22 point third quarter in which the rim transformed into the Pacific Ocean. Golden State went on to close out the Nuggets in six; Curry averaged 24 and 9 on 62 TS% for the series. All this without much help from the Allstar, David Lee (only played 2 games).

The San Antonio series tied after four before experience prevailed and sent Golden State home in six. Curry did have a 44 point game one, but largely struggled throughout the series. On the playoffs, in 12 games he averaged 23-4-8 on 56 TS%. A severely underrated playoff run in a historical context. Only 12 times has a player averaged those numbers on that level of efficiency in a single playoff run over 10 games. Of those 12, Nikola Jokic and Chris Paul are the only others to do it in their first playoff run.

Fast forward three years and this guy becomes the first unanimous MVP in league history. And to think, it all started three years ago with an improbable playoff run. As the makings of a dynasty were forming in Oakland, about 2200 miles northeast, another future superstar was brewing in Milwaukee.

The 2016 All-star break was historic for a few reasons. It was the final of All-star weekend for the late (still doesn’t seem real), great Kobe Bryant. It also marked the first time the festivities were held outside the United States in the event’s 65 year history. And lastly, it is where we pinpoint the birth of a demigod named Giannis.

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With each passing year, he added something new to his game, as well as his physical maturation. Here’s what then-GM John Hammond said leading into Giannis’ sophomore season.

“I think Giannis is going to be a multiple-position player some day. He came last September he was 6-9, 190 (lbs.) and today he’s almost 6-11, 217 pounds. I think Giannis is a guy that is going to be able to play some small forward and he’s going to play some power forward some day.”

He spent majority of his minutes at the two that year. Saw improvement in all areas of his game and Milwaukee even made the playoffs that year after having the worst record in the NBA the previous year. Now we get to that all-important third season. As a reference, here’s what some of the games best forwards did in year 3 (per 75 possessions).

– LeBron James (2006)

:black_small_square: 29.6 PTS 6.6 REB 6.2 AST 56.8 TS% .232 WS/48 +7.3 RAPTOR

– Kevin Durant (2010)

:black_small_square: 29.5 PTS 7.4 REB 2.8 AST 60.7 TS% .238 WS/48 +7.0 RAPTOR

– Paul George (2013)

:black_small_square: 18.5 PTS 8.1 REB 4.4 AST 53.1 TS% .145 WS/48 +3.8 RAPTOR

– Kawhi Leonard (2014)

:black_small_square: 16.6 PTS 8.1 REB 2.2 STL 60.2 TS% .193 WS/48 +6.6 RAPTOR

All four, and a fifth if you include Carmelo Anthony, were All-Stars in 2016. Meanwhile, Giannis was quietly putting together a solid season up to that point. At the break, Giannis had *broken out* with averages of 17-7-4. By now his frame started to fill out, clocking in at around 220 lbs.

His handle improved exponentially over the course of a year. Instead of finding a MCW or Bayless to come get the ball, often times he’d take it up the floor and get them into sets. Or he’d take it off the rim and go coast to coast. Reminiscent of LeBron James, James Worthy, except he’s 6’11 with a monstrous wingspan.

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It took long enough, but Kidd and company finally decided to let Giannis be the defacto point guard moving forward. He quickly began to punish teams out of the post and came a very long way as a passer. Just 2 games following the break, he recorded his first triple double against the Lakers. A week later, he did it again. Next week, he did it again… From February 22nd to March 13th, he averaged 20.4 PPG 9.3 RPG 8.6 APG 2.2 SPG and 1.9 BPG (11 game sample) with four triple doubles.

Milwaukee didn’t even sniff the playoffs. At 33-49 they were eleven games back of eighth place Detroit. They were a very flawed basketball team, and in a season largely dominated by one man and one team, Giannis and his close to the season was a blip.

Looking at Giannis’ year in totality, it’s decent – 17 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists – but those aren’t eye-catching numbers. The advanced metrics don’t stand out either. And the team was bad. But peek through those blinds and see. Post-ASB: 18.8 PTS 8.6 REB 7.2 AST 1.9 BLK 56 TS%.

Those numbers would put him along the likes of Bird, Magic, LeBron, Jordan, Wilt, etc. Account for age (21), and only Luka Doncic and Magic Johnson remain. Tack on the blocks, and he’d stand alone.

And now four years later, he’s having another incredible season that’s likely to end with another MVP. Players develop at their own pace. Whether it be injuries (Curry) that play a role, or just a matter of skill catching up with the physical gifts (Giannis), there is no pinpoint route to superstardom.

Every superstar has an origin story, but I’d argue these are some of the best and most unlikeliest of tales. Did you really expect Stephen Curry to be a 2x MVP and ring in a basketball revolution all the way back in 2013? Did you think Giannis would become the player he is today in 2016? If you did, you a better man than me.