Alright all you standard leaguers and Flex 9ers (leagues starting 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex), here you have me eschewing wide receivers and focusing only on your beloved running backs. Hey, I rank them all (only subscribe if you want to win your league).
I pulled the Top 10 running backs from my rankings, and have included the accompanying analysis (plus bonus coverage). I’m going to start with my rankings of the Top 10 backs. Then I’ll tell you why one back in the Top 10 of ADP in the NFFC (August only) is excluded from my “Top of the Charts.” There’s also one back who I have 10 RB slots lower than the market and I’ll tell you why.
I love to color outside the lines. But if you draft a RB at the top of the draft, he has to have the upside to totally crushing your league — to make people think having him is unfair. That’s just one man, Christian McCaffrey. I noted this in my rankings:
“Per 17-game averages for Panthers: 230-1,057-8 rushing and 104-874-5 receiving (375.1 PPR per season/22.1 PPG. For the Niners: 246-1153-9 rushing and 80-716-6 receiving (359.9 PPR per season/21.2 PPG).”
Some are down on him because they think he’s going to be more of committee back, but Elijah Mitchell can’t stay healthy himself. I stipulate that McCaffrey is going to get no more than 70% of RB carries. But I don’t care. His usage will be off the charts. I’ve just demonstrated that.
This is an odd fantasy year as McCaffrey is the only back I’d consider with the top pick in the vast majority of formats. If you’re Flex 9/standard, then sure, you can move up the next guy too and make him the No. 2 pick. But please reformat your league for the 21st century, I beg you.
My second RB is not the consensus pick. Early in the draft season, he was a second-round pick for some reason. Nick Chubb has a case for being the best pure running back in NFL history. Consider this factoid in my rankings:
“First back in history to average 5.0+ per carry in each of his first five seasons (min. 150 attempts). No one else has more than three. He’s still in his prime. No Kareem Hunt. Maybe the QB is still good. The OL is solid.”
There is no Kareem Hunt. Like McCaffrey, the Browns may decide that Chubb’s historic success is a result of limited usage and they may opt to keep it that way. But he’s probably on the field for more third downs and probably a reasonable bet for 50+ catches (double his 2022 total). I’m only forecasting Deshaun Watson to be an average QB, which has to be his over/under.
I go back and forth on No. 3. And I would not for one second consider any of the rest over Chubb. It’s really six of one, a half dozen of the other for the next two spots.
At this moment, Saquon Barkley is my No. 3. The key here is whether the Giants are dumb enough to keep feeding Barkley targets. He’s historically inefficient at as a receiver. As I noted in my ranks, 4.5 yards per target the past two seasons, and 2022 (4.4) was worse than 2021 (4.6). An average back is about 6.3 per target. I think the Giants will be dumb enough and he’ll probably regress closer to 6.0 per target, too.
My No. 4 is Bijan Robinson. “Him being No. 4 on the depth chart is just rookie training camp nonsense. He had 63.5% of Texas’ carries in NCAA last year. I think that’s the limit of how we can project him this year. He should be involved as a receiver. He’s ranked here because of the dearth of putative bell cows in today’s NFL.”
I have Tony Pollard No. 5, ahead of Austin Ekeler. He’s rising — Ekeler, at age 28, is likely descending. “If the Cowboys get a serious threat to proactive RB/goal-line touches, I’ll adjust. There is just so much TD equity here. A dozen rushing TDs just left town. And Pollard still had nine.”
I have to rank Ekeler next. This is the end of the group that has a chance to be the RB1, given the current holdouts. “(Assumes) the Chargers sign an Ezekiel Elliott type to split the job. The team clearly wants to de-emphasize Ekeler in the passing game so forget 107 catches. It will be about 70. Every target to Ekeler gets you one target closer to losing. He should be the safety valve not a first read.”
Now things get dicey. This is where the holdouts come into play. For now, I have to put Derrick Henry next. He’s definitely a bell cow and I think the team will have a winning record. Yes, he’s basically 30 this year (just came in ahead of the cutoff). “If you draft Henry higher than this, you’re betting against the base rate, which is fine. But ask yourself, “Am I being paid to gamble or am I paying to gamble?” IOW, his overall ADP is still too high. He’s a late-second-round pick (at best) for sure.”
Next up is Rhamondre Stevenson. His issue is, “You need the Patriots to lean into Stevenson being a bell cow, which is unlike them historically, and you need Mac Jones to be closer to 2021 than 2022.”
No. 9 is Jonathan Taylor (if I’m drafting today). He can’t afford to hold out — this is his first real payday. “He needs six games to get credit for the season and thus be eligible for free agency in 2024 (but he’ll just get tagged again anyway). Playing six games basically off the street is not really cutting injury risk. Hopefully you don’t draft until late August. I’m pounding the WR queue by this time in the draft anyway. You should too.”
Next we have another holdout and you can basically cut and paste what I said about Taylor and apply it to Josh Jacobs. If Jacobs is back and ready to play Week 1, he can also be the RB1. He just seems more angry than Taylor, though I’m just guessing. I could easily flip Jacobs and Taylor. I don’t see Taylor as a better player, honestly.
Oddly, there is only one RB I have outside the Top 10 who is inside it in NFFC August drafts — Najee Harris. I have him 11th, hardly worth arguing about. I wrote:
“If you must be RB heavy in Flex 9 formats (two WR and a flex), Harris is a very safe option. He’s not very good but good enough and most important, the Steelers think he’s good. I think there’s a 30-to-40% chance the Steelers use Jaylen Warren as basically a committee back. Unlikely but concerning.”
The player I’m most down on relative the the market is Jahmyr Gibbs. I ranked David Montgomery basically equally with Gibbs, seeing Swift and Jamaal Williams, the Sequel. I wrote:
“There’s a chance he gets no touches on first and second down inside the five. So maybe nothing on the goal line. As for him functioning as a de facto WR, spread out or in the slot, this is the NFL. Not a place for hybrid players. Gibbs as a rookie is a better WR than an NFL WR? Doubtful. If he’s Lenny Moore or Marshall Faulk, prove it.”
(Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports)
