Cover 7 | Thursday A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football’s biggest stories. Each Thursday, Mike Sando examines an emerging storyline around NFL quarterbacking.
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So many NFL teams face consequential quarterback decisions in 2024.
The Chicago Bears must weigh keeping Justin Fields against using a high draft choice for a replacement. The Denver Broncos must decide how to proceed with Russell Wilson. The New York Giants remain tethered financially to Daniel Jones but likely cannot embrace the status quo.
These are but a few of the compelling situations.
It’s a good time to check in on all 32 NFL quarterback situations, which I’ve done below after talking through scenarios with NFL decision-makers. I’ve grouped all 32 quarterbacks into buckets based on their teams’ commitment levels to them, from “Committed And Wish We Could Renew Vows Daily” to “Been Benched, Could Be Too Late” at the other extreme. I’ve included teams’ primary quarterbacks entering the season, not short-term replacements, for a more global view of the position.
1. Committed And Wish We Could Renew Vows Daily
We would not for one second consider trading our QB for any other in the league.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Signed Thru: 2031 | APY Rank: 8 | QB EPA Rank: 7
The Chiefs have reached three Super Bowls, winning two, in Mahomes’ first five seasons as a starter. They have reached the AFC Championship Game every year and won nearly 80 percent of their games while fielding the top-ranked offense by EPA per play. They did all that while ranking only 27th in combined EPA on defense and special teams. No other quarterback has won that big, this early, without more help from the components he cannot control. This season is testing the idea that even the greatest quarterbacks require a baseline level of weaponry to dominate.
2. Committed Without Reservation
We have a top-tier QB signed to a long-term extension and would not trade him for any quarterback other than Mahomes.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Signed Thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 9 | QB EPA Rank: 5
Allen has been a top-five quarterback statistically even during a tumultuous season marked by the firing of his offensive coordinator. It will take more than a 6-5 start to knock Allen from these ranks.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Signed Thru: 2029 | APY Rank: 1 | QB EPA Rank: 18
Two injury-shortened seasons in a four-year career does not change the fact all but a few teams would happily trade their quarterbacks for Burrow. That might start to change if injuries strike again in 2024. Until then, Burrow took the Bengals to the Super Bowl in his second season, and he represents their only shot at getting back.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Signed Thru: 2029 | APY Rank: 2 | QB EPA Rank: 4
The Chargers might need to enjoy more team success for Herbert to maintain his spot in Tier 1, although it’s difficult to blame him or Philip Rivers for the past decade-plus of disappointment. The Chargers rank 31st in defensive EPA per play and 31st in offensive rushing success rate. That’s a tough combination for a quarterback to overcome in the win column, even with a top-five offense. Herbert ranks fourth in EPA per pass play and has the lowest turnover rate among 32 qualifying quarterbacks.
3. Committed and Content
We have an upper-tier QB signed for the long term and seem happy with the situation.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Signed Thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 4 | QB EPA Rank: 9
Hurts is 9-1 as the Eagles’ starter since signing his extension before the season and 26-2 over his last 28 starts dating to the 2021 season. He surged to the top of Tier 2 heading into 2023 and is still early in the process.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Signed Thru: 2027 | APY Rank: 3 | QB EPA Rank: 15
Jackson and the Ravens are in a good place following a tricky contract negotiation that became personal. The sixth-year QB has bounced back from injury to lead a new-look offense with greater diversity in the passing game. Can Jackson make a deeper push in the playoffs without tight end Mark Andrews, the Ravens’ most important receiving weapon?
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Signed Thru: 2024 | APY Rank: T-10 | QB EPA Rank: 3
Since Week 6, Prescott has a 4-1 starting record while leading the NFL in touchdown passes (14), passer rating (118.7) and EPA per pass play (0.30). Dallas appears headed toward extending his contract, which would reduce a ballooning salary-cap charge scheduled to hit the books in 2024.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Signed Thru: 2026 | APY Rank: T-10 | QB EPA Rank: 11
Stafford’s age differentiates him from others in this group, adding greater uncertainty about his future. If the Rams could find another team to take Stafford’s contract, would they? It’s a fair question, and one reason Stafford is not a perfect fit in this category. But he has recovered from the elbow issues that slowed him last season. Without him, the Rams might be in the running for a top-five pick in the draft. With him, they could be near the middle of the pack in the NFC.
4. Let’s Do A Deal Soon
Something really bad would have to happen for us not to enter into an extension soon.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Signed Thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 22 | QB EPA Rank: 24
Lawrence becomes eligible for a second contract after this season, at which point the Jaguars will presumably make him one of the NFL’s highest-paid quarterbacks. They could feel even better about the situation if their offense finished the season strong after faltering much of the way thus far.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Signed Thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 16 | QB EPA Rank: 8
Goff has found a home in Detroit and, from all appearances, would have to fall off markedly for the Lions to resist an extension. With Goff leading the NFL’s seventh-ranked offense by EPA per play, the Lions have a greater than 99 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, per The New York Times’ model. Detroit might view its Week 11 comeback victory against Chicago following a terrible start to the game for Goff as another positive sign.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Signed Thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 28 | QB EPA Rank: 2
Tagovailoa’s ability to stay healthy through a full season could affect the outlook. The Dolphins could decide to let him play 2024 on his fifth-year option, but the right kind of extension could make sense for all. As a contract negotiator from another team put it, if Lawrence’s deal comes in among the top three, Tagovailoa’s extension could rank seventh or eighth.
5. Looks Like We Have Our Guy, And He’s Cheap
Our guy looks really good and we’ve got him on a rookie deal for a while, so let’s enjoy.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Signed Thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 23 | QB EPA Rank: 6
Stroud’s hot start makes him look like a surer bet than the other rookie starters this season. He’s on a short list with Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck and Prescott as rookie quarterbacks to start the first 10 games, win most of them and lead a top-10 offense by EPA per play for a team that has already exceeded its win total from the previous season.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Signed Thru: 2025 | APY Rank: 84 | QB EPA Rank: 1
Purdy is not eligible for a new contract until after the 2024 season. In the meantime, his combination of high-level production and bargain-basement cost is creating a dream scenario for the 49ers. This situation becomes complicated only if, come playoff time, Purdy gets injured again or suffers through a meltdown performance in a one-and-done postseason.
6. Celebrating Career Revivals, But Not Locked In
We’re getting better-than-expected production from quarterbacks the league saw as journeymen, but it’s not clear what the longer-term future holds.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Signed Thru: 2025 | APY Rank: 18 | QB EPA Rank: 14
Seattle’s three-year deal with Smith gives the team easy outs after one or two seasons because all the guaranteed money was in the first year. How the Seahawks finish could be important for his future. Smith’s elite production on third down last season has proved unsustainable so far in 2023.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Signed Thru: 2023 | APY Rank: 37 | QB EPA Rank: 12
Mayfield is succeeding as a passer even though Tampa Bay ranks 32nd in rushing success rate. His third-down numbers are the best of his career, which is a little interesting in relation to the cratering third-down numbers of Seattle’s Smith, in that Mayfield’s offensive coordinator (Dave Canales) was Smith’s position coach last season.
7. Committed With Concerns
We have our guy locked into an expensive deal, or is it the other way around?
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Signed Thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 7 | QB EPA Rank: 27
Watson is one of 41 quarterbacks to start at least 12 games over the past three seasons. He ranks 40th among them in EPA per pass play, ahead of only Zach Wilson. Watson is also rehabbing an injury to his throwing shoulder. That’s not ideal for a player with fully guaranteed $46 million salaries in each of the next three seasons.
Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
Signed Thru: 2025 | APY Rank: T-13 | QB EPA Rank: N/A
The way Rodgers paralyzed the Packers late in his Green Bay tenure was nothing compared to how he is paralyzing the Jets right now. With the team apparently all-in on him for 2024, and with Rodgers able to walk away if he wishes, the quarterback will have a strong voice in how the team proceeds with its coaching staff and personnel moves. There’s no guarantee Rodgers will again become an elite player in his age-40 season coming off a torn Achilles, but he’s surely going to be their best bet.
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Signed Thru: 2026 | APY Rank: T-13 | QB EPA Rank: 19
Durability issues are suddenly a concern for Carr in New Orleans, where the Saints’ offense has actually gotten slightly worse from an EPA per play standpoint. Coach Dennis Allen recently clarified that Carr would remain the starter upon returning from his concussion. That’s the sort of clarification the Saints hoped they’d never have to make when entering into a deal with a $30 million fully guaranteed salary in 2024.
8. It’s Complicated
Special circumstances make these situations less straightforward, creating a wide range of potential outcomes.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
Signed Thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 5 | QB EPA Rank: 16
Coach Sean Payton’s public frustration with Wilson early in the season has subsided as Denver has won with defense and an offense that has been throttled down in the passing game. Wilson is producing efficient numbers without having to carry the team. Is this the start of something special or simply Payton making the best of the bad situation he inherited? Wilson’s deal calls for another $37 million to become fully guaranteed if he’s on the roster in mid-March, and so there are questions.
How much of Payton’s future does the coach want to bet on Wilson? Could Payton make a quarterback change at the first sign of trouble this season? Could he push for Wilson to rework his contract? Is Wilson growing on him? Lots to consider.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Signed Thru: 2026 | APY Rank: T-10 | QB EPA Rank: 31
If Jones had not suffered a torn ACL, he might be playing for his job, same as some of the quarterbacks listed toward the bottom of this analysis. That knee injury plus the neck injury Jones suffered plus his poor performance plus the possibility of the Giants holding a top-three pick in the 2024 draft equals volatility. Jones has a fully guaranteed $35.5 million salary for 2024, but the team will have to consider alternatives, making this a complicated situation.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Signed Thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 6 | QB EPA Rank: N/A
Murray’s talent and expensive contract make him the leading candidate to start for the Cardinals next season, but if he falters or suffers another injury and Arizona emerges with a top-five draft choice, the situation could get complicated. The Cardinals sit second in the draft order now, but with Murray back in the lineup and appearing to have retained his athletic quickness following ACL surgery, the team’s draft position could suffer. Arizona does enter the 2024 draft with two first-round picks, three thirds and three fifths, so adding an alternative to Murray would not be difficult.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Signed Thru: 2023 | APY Rank: 15 | QB EPA Rank: 10
The torn Achilles suffered by Cousins ended one of his best seasons and could imperil his future with the Vikings. Could Minnesota roll with Josh Dobbs on a cheaper deal while considering options in the draft? Might Cousins find another team that increases his chances for championship success? Cousins’ deal expires after the season, and Minnesota waived its right to use the franchise tag, so this situation is definitely complicated. The Vikings’ offensive-play-calling head coach, Kevin O’Connell, will have a strong voice in the matter.
9. Evaluating: Long Runways
Despite some early bumps in the road, we have a couple years to evaluate our guy, who is barely getting started.
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Signed Thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 21 | QB EPA Rank: 30
A disastrous season for the Panthers could trigger change around Young, given how impatient Panthers owner David Tepper has proven to be, but the quarterback will surely be given additional time to prove himself.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Signed Thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 26 | QB EPA Rank: NA
In the four weeks Richardson played, he ranked ninth among quarterbacks in explosive play rate, defined as passes gaining 16-plus yards and QB rushes gaining 12-plus yards. He also struggled to stay healthy, suggesting some recalibration regarding usage and style of play will be helpful.
10. Evaluating: Clock Is Ticking
There are things to like about our guy, but the remainder of this season could swing the evaluation.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Signed Thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 35 | QB EPA Rank: 23
Showing development might not be enough for Fields in Chicago because the Bears are favored to emerge with the first pick in the 2024 draft, via a trade with Carolina. If Fields struggles down the stretch, the Bears need to consider alternatives regardless of their draft position. The quarterback’s sky-high sack rate (12.3 percent) and inconsistent accuracy remain concerns.
Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
Signed Thru: 2025 | APY Rank: 81 | QB EPA Rank: 20
Howell has outperformed expectations and could be the Commanders’ starter in 2024, but with new ownership taking over recently, fluid coaching and front-office situations bring into play all kinds of possibilities. Any analysis of Howell must take into account his extreme usage under coordinator Eric Bieniemy. Howell’s 442 pass attempts are 60 more than any other player (Allen has 382). Howell has taken 51 sacks and has scrambled 25 times for a total of 518 pass plays, 93 more than any other quarterback.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Signed Thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 20 | QB EPA Rank: 13
The Packers are in a great position with Love contractually, as they have him for 2024 with a $5.5 million salary and $7.7 million cap charge. But if Love struggles to finish the season, they will have to think about alternatives.
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
Signed Thru: 2025 | APY Rank: 42 | QB EPA Rank: 29
Pickett’s first-round pedigree and the Steelers’ admission that recently fired coordinator Matt Canada was a big part of the problem gives Pickett more runway than his production might merit otherwise.
Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
Signed Thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 48 | QB EPA Rank: NA
A second-round draft pedigree does not buy security for Levis with Tennessee, which is currently sixth in the draft order and looking like a team that could hold one of the top three or four picks.
Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
Signed Thru: 2025 | APY Rank: 57 | QB EPA Rank: 26
The Falcons took a big risk thinking Ridder could be their starter this season. It would be malpractice for them to make the same bet again, unless Ridder fares much better down the stretch. The team committing to him as its starter from this point forward gives Ridder a chance, at least.
Mac Jones, New England Patriots
Signed Thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 41 | QB EPA Rank: 28
The Patriots have not publicly committed to Jones as their starter this week, which puts him perilously close to joining Jimmy Garoppolo in the final category. New England is complicit in Jones’ failure, but Jones also hasn’t shown enough to suggest any team could bet on him as its undisputed starter.
11. Been Benched, Could Be Too Late
Our guy has been benched and it’s difficult to envision a scenario where we stay the course with him as our undisputed QB1 past this season.
Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders
Signed Thru: 2025 | APY Rank: 18 | QB EPA Rank: 22
Garoppolo’s durability concerns resurfaced and his performance suffered enough for the Raiders to start Aidan O’Connell, at least for now.
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(Top photo: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
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