Fantasy Outlook: Seattle Seahawks

This offseason a lot was made of the possibility for Seattle’s offense to have a completely new look, with Seattle trading for Jimmy Graham and trading away their elite run-blocking center, Max Unger. While the volume of passing was not expected to reach the levels of New Orleans’ aerial assault, it was reasonable to expect a heavier focus on the passing game would change the balance of Seattle’s offense. There has been an uptick in passing attempts, but a jump from No. 32 in the league in passing attempts to No. 30 is not the type of transformation that creates excitement for fantasy owners.

Coming out of their bye week, what can we expect from Seattle’s in terms of fantasy production in the second half of the season? Let’s go through by position.

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Quarterback

Wilson was a top five fantasy quarterback in 2014, and was projected to not only repeat, but likely be the “safe” option in the second tier of top-level quarterbacks. Entering Week 10, Wilson is the eighteenth ranked QB in fantasy, and is averaging just 15.7 fantasy points per game. In previous years, Wilson countered his low volume of passing with great rushing numbers, as well as a good TD/INT ratio. This year, Wilson has just nine passing touchdowns, and already six interceptions, one short of last year’s total for the entire season.

Most glaringly, Wilson has yet to record a single rushing touchdown. Touchdowns are less consistent from year to year, but the complete ineffectiveness of Seattle’s red zone offense has crushed Wilson owners.

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Seattle faces an easier stretch of their schedule in the second half, and Wilson seems likely to improve his production somewhat, with games against San Francisco, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore in four of their next six games. Either Seattle will find more ways to get Jimmy Graham involved near the end zone, or they will work in more of the read-option plays that have helped them be so effective over the past few years. Wilson should be a spot-starter for streamers only until he shows consistent production.

Running Backs

After years of reliable production, it seemed like the end of Marshawn Lynch‘s fantasy usefulness might have come this year, as a combination of two games missed with injury and ineffectiveness has him as the No. 38 ranked RB. The Seahawks led the league in rushing touchdowns in 2014 but are currently No. 27 in the NFL with only three rushing touchdowns on the season.

Lynch has two of those. His yards per carry is an uninspiring, 3.6, and, according to Football Outsiders he has performed at roughly replacement level this season. With all of this in mind, he is still receiving over seventeen carries per game, and, in Seattle’s run-heavy offense, should be a start every week. Seattle’s offensive line has been a mess, but has looked improved over the last few weeks, and should be able to provide acceptable run-blocking to give Lynch room to work, though not much more.

Thomas Rawls, who filled in capably in Lynch’s absence, would be a valuable player if Lynch were to miss time. If Lynch is healthy, though, Rawls is only valuable as a handcuff.

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Wide Receivers

Another year of zero value from the Seahawks’ wide receiving corps. Doug Baldwin has been Seattle’s top performer, but with just under six fantasy points per game in standard scoring, he is not a good option for all the deepest leagues. Jermaine Kearse, Chris Matthews, and the recently returning Paul Richardson all could have individual games down the stretch with success, but none are targeted consistently enough. Ricardo Lockette is out for the season with a neck injury.

Tyler Lockett is an interesting option, as he is fourth on the team with 28 targets, but has flashed potential. At this point, if your league gives points for return yards, he may be worth rostering, but for redraft leagues none of these players are worth starting.

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham has been, according to Pro Football Focus, the No. 5 overall TE in football this year. Graham’s fantasy owners are likely unimpressed, as the currently No. 10 overall tight end in fantasy has fulfilled the most negative predictions about Seattle’s offseason acquisition. Graham has led Seattle in targets with 55, and has actually averaged a yard more per game receiving than last year. Compared to the 125-150 targets a season Graham saw in his time in New Orleans, as well as the 10 touchdowns in 2014 compared to just two so far this season, it seems that Graham is not the elite fantasy producer he once was.

Over the last three games, Graham has seen an average of nine targets, up from just 5.6 in the first five games of the season, so perhaps Seattle is starting to figure out better ways to use him, which would be good news for the entire Seahawks offense. If Graham is your starting TE, he is not going to lose you a game, but he has not proven himself likely to win them for you in 2015. If you can parlay his name value into a trade for an upgrade elsewhere, now, or hopefully after a solid week 10 performance, it would be wise.

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Defense

Seattle’s defense continues to be one of the best in the league. While they are second in the league in both fewest yards and fewest points allowed, they are No. 23 in the league in turnovers forced, limiting their ceiling. Three straight home games, as well as a very appealing fantasy playoffs schedule, should boost this unit’s fantasy production, and they can be reliably started every week.

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John Trupin is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from John, check out his archive and follow him @troopdogg24.