The NFL has suspended Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott six games for violating the league’s personal conduct policy, a suspension that significantly limits Elliott’s fantasy value. Elliott is expected to appeal, but for now we must assume the leading rusher of 2016 won’t be eligible to play for the first seven weeks of the year — the Cowboys’ bye is in Week 6 — ultimately costing him half the upcoming fantasy football season.

Elliott was considered a top-three fantasy running back in both standard and point-per-reception, or PPR, formats before Friday’s ruling, and has since fallen to the second or third round in 1,559 fantasy football mock drafts audited by Fantasy Football Calculator between Aug. 12 and Aug. 14.

The math behind the limited fall checks out. Elliott scored 327 PPR points last season, second-most at the position, and if you subtract six games worth of scoring he would have fallen to the 19th best back in that format, which equates to a mid-round pick in the fourth round in 2017 mock drafts. If he missed just five games he would have been on par with a running back being drafted late in the second round.

But there is no guarantee he plays in all of those games at the end of the season. Elliott did not miss a game in 2016 due to injury, but running backs are one of the most injury-prone positions in the NFL. Last season, Elliott was one of 11 running backs to start 14 or more games and Jake Davidow, the founder of the Sports Injury Predictor, estimates Elliott will miss two games during the 2017. Two games over the course of the season isn’t much to fret over, but even one game missed in addition to the six games served for suspension and one more for the bye week gives Elliott a projection of 152 and 174 points in 2017. That would be fringe-starter territory in a per game average basis in 12-team leagues. And there’s also the cost of carrying him on your roster for half the season while providing zero impact. That makes Elliott worth a sixth-round pick, at best, making him a very risky pick in the second or third round.

Even if Elliott’s appeal is successful in full or a lawsuit delays implementation of the suspension, he will have to face one of the toughest slate of run defenses of any team in 2017. The Cowboys’ first five opponents are the New York Giants, Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers, defenses that ranked No. 2 overall in Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, No. 1 in defensive DVOA, No. 3 in defensive DVOA, No. 1 in stuff percentage (29 percent) and No. 9 in adjusted rushing yards allowed, respectively, last season.

Take a cautious approach with Elliott, and do not overreach.

Sammy Watkins, WR, Los Angeles Rams, 4.07 ADP

The Bills declined Watkins’s fifth-year option on his rookie deal and then decided to ship him off to the Rams, neither situation carries optimism for Watkins’s future as an NFL receiver.

Initially, the risk of drafting Watkins centered around his inconsistent health. The former first-round pick from the 2014 NFL draft missed 11 games over the past two seasons, with a foot injury limiting him to eight games in 2016, a season which saw him catch just 28 of 52 passes for 430 yards and two touchdowns.

Now that health risk is added to playing with a Rams squad that ranked last in points per game (13.6), last in third-down conversions (31.5 percent) and second-to-last in net yards per pass attempt (5.51 vs. league average of 6.76).

Rookie quarterback Jared Goff was a part of those futile efforts. The top overall pick in 2016 played seven games and completed less than 55 percent of his passes with a 5-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio, producing 2.82 adjusted net yards per attempt, a rate that is 53 percent lower than average. Ryan Leaf, widely considered to have one of the worst debut seasons for a quarterback ever, produced an adjusted net yards per attempt rate that was 39 percent below average. Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor, by comparison, averaged 6.07 adjusted net yards per attempt in 2016.

According to Sharp Football Stats’ success rate, which measures a player’s performance against the NFL average based on dynamic adjustment to defined situations, Watkins was 2.3 percent above average, with most of his success coming down the right sideline. Unfortunately, that won’t be enough to lift the Rams’ passing attack (minus-10.3 percent success rate) to respectable levels.

Brandin Cooks, WR, New England Patriots, 2.11 ADP

Cooks was a mainstay in the New Orleans Saints‘ passing game, catching 78 of 117 targets for 1,173 yards and eight touchdowns in 2016, but it is uncertain how much volume he will get in 2017 after being acquired by the Patriots in May.

Over the past three seasons, only wide receivers Julian Edelman (twice) and Brandon LaFell have topped the 100-target mark in a season for New England with quarterback Tom Brady under center. In addition, only Edelman and Danny Amendola have been targeted more than 80 times in a season by Brady, meaning Cooks could expect to see a much lighter workload in New England than he ever has in his NFL career.

Fewer targets is a big problem for a fantasy football receiver. Since 2012, 99 of the 120 (82.5 percent) wide receivers finishing in the top 24 at the position had 120 targets or more during the season, with the average top-24 wideout accumulating 147 targets per campaign.

And Cooks will be fighting for similar targets to the ones Edelman and tight end Rob Gronkowski get, which are already successful — those within 14 yards of the line of scrimmage.

Cooks is currently being selected as the 12th receiver off the board in PPR mock drafts, but his workload projects him to finish well below that, making him too big a risk on draft day.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills, 1.06 ADP

The possible suspension of Elliott has moved McCoy up from the fourth to the third running back taken in mock drafts, with many fantasy owners looking to take advantage of McCoy’s ability to turn small gains into big plays. Last season, he averaged 2.42 yards per carry after contact with 22 runs of 15 yards or more, per the game charters at Pro Football Focus. That tied him for the league lead with Elliot for most high-yardage runs from scrimmage.

Unfortunately, the Bills aren’t expected to be very good in 2017, meaning they will likely be playing from behind often, giving McCoy less opportunities with the football.

Like most teams, Buffalo ran the ball more often when in a position to win. When its win probability met or exceeded 60 percent last season, the Bills ran the ball 56 percent of the time. That dropped to 50 percent of the time when the win probability was between 40 and 59 percent. If their chances dropped to below 40 percent, the Bills rushed just 39 percent of the time.

There is also a high injury risk. The Sports Injury Predictor estimates McCoy will miss more than five games during the 2017 season, with a league-high 17 percent chance of injury in any given game. Your first-round pick is better spent elsewhere.