END OF ROUND 2
The leaderboard flashes even more star power on Friday, as five major champs are deadlocked at seven under. Just one off the lead and tied for 6th are Dustin Johnson and Woods, the latter coming off a three-birdie, no-bogey back nine that led to a four-under 68. Despite being a stroke behind five others, Johnson is the favorite to win at the halfway point.
WIN PROBABILITY AFTER 36 HOLES: Dustin Johnson 13.5% Jason Day 11.4% Brooks Koepka 9.6% Adam Scott 8.4% Louis Oosthuizen 8.2% Francesco Molinari 8.0% Tiger Woods 7.4%
DATA GOLF SAYS: “Back then the model was really high on DJ. He’s probably the fifth-ranked guy in our model now, but at the Masters last year he was highly rated.”
END OF ROUND 3
Francesco Molinari makes four straight birdies on Nos. 12 to 15 and is bogey-free for the second straight day. He sits at 13 under and leads Tony Finau and Woods by two, Koepka by three, Ian Poulter and Webb Simpson by four and several others by five. There’s little rest for the leaders as thunderstorms forecasted for Sunday move up final-round tee times. Groups will go off in threesomes on split tees, with the final group of Molinari, Woods and Finau scheduled to tee off at 9:20 a.m. Molinari’s win percentage is more than double Woods’, but a tense, unpredictable and thrilling day of golf is on the horizon. A day from now Koepka will call Sunday the coolest back nine he’s ever been a part of. “I don’t know how it looked on TV,” he said, “but it was amazing to be a part of.”
WIN PROBABILITY AFTER 54 HOLES: Molinari 37.9% Woods 17.2% Tony Finau 15.5% Koepka 8.0%
DATA GOLF SAYS: “People sometimes forget how much even a one-stroke lead is worth with a single round left. The difference in skill between the 25th- and 150th-ranked golfers in the world is about one stroke per round, so there has to be a big skill gap for us to expect a player to make up even a one-stroke deficit.”
SUNDAY, ROUND 4
9:20 a.m., HOLE NO. 1
Molinari, Woods and Finau stand on the 1st tee at Augusta National. Four groups ahead, Patrick Cantlay’s birdie-birdie start cuts into the win percentages for the final threesome. After Molinari finds the fairway and Finau misses left, Woods steps to the tee. “Fore, please. Tiger Woods now driving!” the starter yells. Woods takes three practice swings and pipes it down the left side. He’s never won a major when trailing after 54 holes, but that’s about to change.
