Fantasy Football strategy: Todd Gurley and Thomas Rawls finally deliver and 10 things to know about Week 12

Sure, that quote is 750 years old so it wasn’t originally written for Fantasy football owners. But at least for one week it’s going to be a virtue that is rewarded. A pair of running backs that have given Fantasy owners far less than they bargained for are going to deliver in a big way as we march to the playoffs.

While patience may be a virtue, I know it’s not very prevalent in 2016, so let’s jump right into Week 12 in a tweet:

Can the Superdome make Jared Goff super?

For those baseball fans out there, the Superdome has basically been the Coors Field of the NFL. No game has had fewer than 45 points scored and three out of five have seen at least 69 points. But that hasn’t necessarily meant great success for quarterbacks. Here is what opposing quarterbacks have done in New Orleans this year, the final column is how their performance at the Superdome differed from their season average.

YARDS TD FP AVG FP +/- Derek Carr 319 1 23 22.4 0.6 Matt Ryan 240 2 23 26.2 -3.2 Cam Newton 322 2 30 20.4 9.6 Russell Wilson 253 0 9 18.4 -9.4 Trevor Siemian 258 2 18 15.1 2.9

Not quite what you expected, right? In total, quarterbacks have performed very much in line with their season average. While Goff doesn’t have much of a baseline to base that on, let’s just keep in mind that the team didn’t want to start him over Case Keenum.

The bottom line is, with a quarterback like Goff you probably aren’t expecting much. If anything, the Saints defense is probably a better play.

Those injury replacements at WR aren’t going to help you.

Need help at wide receiver? You probably need to look somewhere besides Chicago and Cincinnati. I actually liked Marquess Wilson as a deep sleeper, but not when he’s catching passes from Matt Barkley. As for the Bengals, Brandon LaFell is just a guy and Tyler Boyd isn’t anywhere close to consistent yet. Either could be a No. 4 receive or a No. 3 in deep leagues, but that’s about it.

If you need a receiver this week I’d look to someone like Marqise Lee instead. Lee should thrive in garbage time down the stretch. He’s a better option than any of the receivers mentioned above.

Are there any shootouts?

There’s only one Sunday game that has a Vegas total over 50 – the Falcons and Cardinals. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t going to be any high-scoring teams. It just means we’re going to have some blowouts. Here are my thoughts on some offenses where you can find Fantasy points.

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New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns: Rashad Jennings becomes solid No. 2 running back, Sterling Shepard is a very nice No. 3 receiver and Will Tye is streamable. Eli Manning is a borderline top 10 option at quarterback as well. Basically anyone you could reasonably consider starting from New York you should. I also like Gary Barnidge in garbage time with Josh McCown under center.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets: The Patriots are always difficut to figure out and this week is no exception. You’re starting Julian Edelman and LeGarrette Blount but after that it’s pretty hairy. Assuming Chris Hogan can’t go again, Malcolm Mitchell is a decent deep sleeper and Martellus Bennett is a borderline starting tight end. I’ve taken the position that I don’t want to start Dion Lewis until I see him do it but I’d rather start him than James White.

Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers: Jay Ajayi is a top six back this week and Ryan Tannehill is a good streaming option. I would start both DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry as No. 3 receivers, but I’m not as high on them as Dave Richard and Jamey Eisenberg. I’m afraid the Dolphins run the ball 35 times against this atrocious defense. On the other side of the ball I like Colin Kaepernick a lot and could see streaming Vance McDonald.

You’re finally going to get Todd Gurley as a No. 1 RB.

So I poo-pooed the Goff narrative pretty quick, but I’m all in on Gurley. The Rams running back has had a miserable sophomore campaign and I feel for his owners (mostly me). But those owners will be rewarded for their patience when Gurley faces the Saints in New Orleans.

The Saints have given up 15 touchdowns to running backs this season, the second worst mark in the league. They’ve also given up the fourth most Fantasy points to opposing backs, including several dreadful performances at home. For the first time since Week 5 I expect Gurley to crack 100 yards and score a touchdown.

Colin Kaepernick is once again the best streaming option.

I’m not even sure it’s fair to call Kaepernick a streamer anymore.

I know it’s difficult to accept, but Kaepernick needs to be considered a starting option most weeks unless he has a truly dreadful matchup. He doesn’t this week. The one strength of this Dolphins defense is their ability to pressure the quarterback. Kaepernick mitigates that risk with his legs.

If you missed out on Kaepernick my favorite steamers are Tannehill and Carson Palmer. I’ll get to Palmer in just a minute but Tannehill is really interesting. The 49ers won’t offer any resistance, so it’s all about volume. That’s only one question, but it’s a pretty huge question with this system.

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Struggling quarterbacks get one more shot.

I’ve referenced Carson Palmer a couple of times already. I know a lot of you gave up on him and I get it. But I’d give him one more week. For one, I think this game could easily turn into a quasi-shootout with the Cardinals defense not quite as dominant in the dome as they would be at home. Maybe more importantly, Palmer has all the signs of a quarterback that has been better than his Fantasy production suggests because of bad touchdown luck.

Before last week’s debacle against the Vikings, Palmer had thrown for at least 342 yards in three straight games. If he comes anywhere close to 300 this week I would expect multiple touchdowns and a good Fantasy day. Palmer ranks second in the NFL in passing yards per game since Week 7. Give him one more chance against a suspect defense.

I’m also not completely giving up on Cam Newton yet, but I may be closer than you think. Newton has a good matchup against a team that should put up some points on his defense. I want to see him throwing more accurately and using his legs. If not, I’m looking for a different option for the playoffs.

Committees have turned into one-man shows.

Due to injuries Jeremy Hill and Thomas Rawls have once again become the man in their respective backfields. This week at least that probably matters more for Rawls than Hill. Hill has a terrible matchup against an underrated Ravens defense that will load the box now that A.J. Green is out of the picture. He’s a borderline No. 2 that I’d feel decent about as a flex.

Rawls, on the other hand, is our start of the week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs have had their moments against the run this season but I would expect Rawls to get the volume he needs to be successful. More importantly, unlike Hill, he has a passing game to keep the defense honest. Start Rawls with confidence.

Exceptional WR/CB matchups.

I don’t know how much this will matter from a Fantasy perspective – because you can’t bench these guys – but it certainly will be fun to watch. Also, it could mean more targets for the second or third options.

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Mike Evans vs. Richard Sherman: The key to beating this Seahawks defense is moving inside, and Evans doesn’t do that very often. Sherman got off to a bit of a rocky start, but he’s been phenomenal as of late. Quarterbacks are only completing 51 percent of passes thrown his way and he has more interceptions than touchdowns. If you’re wondering who may benefit I’d say Russell Shepard or Adam Humphries, but both are desperation-only plays.

Julio Jones vs. Patrick Peterson: Julio roasted Peterson in their last matchup and Matt Ryan has been much more willing to spread the ball around. If anyone benefits from that it will be Mohamed Sanu or Taylor Gabriel. Gabriel looks like the deep threat so he’s more a boom-or-bust play, but Sanu should be good for 5 to 7 Fantasy points and a decent showing in PPR.

Mile High is a Fantasy downer.

From a football perspective the Chiefs and Broncos may play one of the best games of the weekend. It will be a fantastic way to cap our Sunday. But in terms of Fantasy I’m not excited at all. Both defenses are getting healthy, which is bad news for Alex Smith and Trevor Siemian. Not that you wanted to start them anyway. I view both running backs as borderline No. 2 options that are far from must-starts.

I’ll start DeMaryius Thomas with confidence because of his targets. I’ll start Emmanuel Sanders and Travis Kelce begrudgingly. And of course I’ll start the kickers in the thin air. Other than that I’d target someone playing in an earlier game so you can enjoy this contest for the beautiful defensive struggle it will be.

Can Aaron Rodgers keep his streak going against Eagles’ defense?

There’s a fun narrative out there that Rodgers has been bad this year. People point to his Y/A (matches last year’s career-low 6.7) and speculate over off-the-field circumstances that may be contributing. Hogwash. He’s the NUMBER ONE QUARTERBACK IN FANTASY!

Sure, Rodgers has been less efficient and he’s needed a lot of volume to do it. Who cares? The Packers aren’t going to find a running game tw0-thirds of the way through the season – and the current volume isn’t going anywhere. I don’t care how good this Eagles defense has been at home, Rodgers is a must-start and should be viewed as a top five Fantasy option regardless of matchup.