Each week leading up to the NFL season, Fantasy Madman Drew Loftis and Roto Rage Jarad Wilk will debate which of two fantasy options is the better draft pick. This week: running backs.
Nick Chubb vs. Joe Mixon
Drew: Chubb — The second-year runner plays in a more explosive offense with better weapons to attract defensive attention — from QB Baker Mayfield to receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry to tight end David Njoku. Defenses can more easily key on Mixon. QB Andy Dalton doesn’t strike fear into opposing defenses, and his best weapon, WR A.J. Green, had ankle surgery last month and is expected to miss multiple games to start the season. Plus, we aren’t worried about Chubb backup Kareem Hunt, who is suspended the first eight games. He won’t supplant Chubb and more likely would assume a role that would be a combination of what Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde provided over the last half of last season — to give Chubb a periodic rest and play a role on passing downs. Add to that the fact we expect Cleveland to be a much better team than Cincinnati, meaning more opportunity to nurse leads by milking the clock with the ground game.
Jarad: Mixon — Mixon, who missed two games in 2018, gained more than 1,500 yards from scrimmage, touched the ball 280 times (including 43 receptions on 55 targets), scored nine touchdowns and never fumbled. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry and caught 78.2% of the passes thrown his way. Chubb is not as involved in the passing attack, as Mixon had double the targets and receptions. Making Mixon even better is new head coach Zac Taylor, who was a coach for the Rams under Sean McVay and plans to run similar schemes with the Bengals. In McVay’s first two years with the Rams (and Taylor was there for both), Todd Gurley averaged 267.5 rushing attempts, 84 targets and 61.5 receptions, and led the league in rushing touchdowns both years. Mixon is the prototypical high-volume, bell-cow running back you want on your team.
Leonard Fournette vs. Kerryon Johnson
Drew: Fournette — Yes, we know Fournette’s injury history. But Johnson also missed a number of games in his rookie season last year. And we have seen Fournette carry that offense — when Blake Bortles, for one season, wasn’t a complete disaster. That is a level Nick Foles should be able to obtain. As a defensive-minded team, the Jaguars will be dedicated to the run. The Lions have talked about leaning more on the ground game, and maybe they do, but we haven’t seen it yet. The Madman doesn’t like betting on things that haven’t happened yet.
Jarad: Johnson — Agreed, injuries are a concern for both players. However, in just 10 games as a rookie, Johnson rushed for 641 yards (the most by a Lions running back since Joique Bell in 2014) and averaged 5.4 yards per game. He also had 39 targets (32 receptions) in the passing game. Fournette averaged 3.3 yards per carry in the eight games he played, and just 3.9 yards per carry in 2017 when he played in 13 games. Johnson has the capability to become Detroit’s first 1,000-yard rusher since Reggie Bush in 2013, and his quest to do so got a boost when the Lions drafted T.J. Hockenson, a polished run blocker, with the ninth overall pick in the draft. Johnson has a solid line in front of him, a blocking tight end, a veteran quarterback and the capability of being a 50-plus reception running back. Him over the slogging Fournette any day.
Derrick Henry vs. Mark Ingram
Drew: Henry — We saw what Henry did at the end of last season. The Titans would have to be fools not to stick with that plan. Henry’s calf injury does not appear serious and isn’t something we’re concerned about for the regular season. Ingram, on the other hand, heads to a team notorious for committee backfields (keep an eye on Justice Hill). Plus, the Ravens have running QB Lamar Jackson, who could steal touchdown carries.
Jarad: Ingram — With Jackson under center last season, the Ravens averaged 230 yards per game, and 150 of those yards came from running backs. Baltimore is a team built to run, and Ingram is a 215-pound back who is ready to run. He has averaged 909 yards and 7.8 touchdowns per season since 2014 — including 1,124 yards and 12 TDs in 2017 when Alvin Kamara burst onto the scene in New Orleans. Henry gets off to slow starts, averaging fewer than 4 yards per carry in September and October, which generally leads to the Titans to switch up thinking. If a slow start happens this year, there is no reason Dion Lewis won’t see more snaps. Plus, running the ball with Henry won’t help the Titans keep up with some of the high-powered offenses they’ll be playing — like the Texans (twice), Colts (twice), Browns, Falcons, Chiefs, Chargers and Saints. Ingram may not be a sexy pick, but he is a safer pick.
Lamar Miller vs. Miles Sanders
Drew: Miller — This is more about Sanders than Miller, and really more about the Eagles than Sanders. Not unlike Ingram with the Ravens, the Eagles have a reputation for shared backfields. Philadelphia signed Jordan Howard in the offseason, and there is no reason to believe he won’t be a factor in the offensive, with likely goal-line carries. Throw in Darren Sproles, Corey Clement and others, and it is easy to envision the Eagles being frustrating on the fantasy front again. Miller isn’t splashy or a special talent, but he will get volume, even with Duke Johnson now on the team. And volume goes a long way.
Jarad: Sanders — At this point, you’re drafting Miller because you know what you’re getting. He likely will get more than 200 carries, likely won’t reach 1,000 yards rushing (he hasn’t since 2016), won’t score more than five touchdowns (he hasn’t since 2015) and likely won’t exceed much more than 35 targets in the passing game (especially with Johnson in town). There isn’t much upside. Sanders, however, currently might be in a committee situation, but that doesn’t mean he can’t/won’t start to produce and push Howard, who averaged 3.7 yards per carry last year, out of the way. Sanders has ability to assist in the rushing and passing game, and if he can become a better blocker, he could get in there faster than you think. And he has far more upside than Miller.
Royce Freeman vs. Darrell Henderson
Drew: Freeman — Though some are expecting a split for Henderson and Gurley, we find this hard to believe if Gurley is healthy. Hence, we expect more of a sub role for Henderson. Freeman has a chance to unseat Phillip Lindsay, or at least carry a large load, not unlike last season.
Jarad: Henderson — Henderson was drafted in the third round to help keep Gurley fresh, not necessarily take over for him. He is explosive with his 4.49 40-yard dash time and averaging 8.9 yards per carry and scoring 27 total TDs last year for Memphis. Even if he is used to keep Gurley fresh and gets about 10 touches a game in that high-scoring Rams offense, he is going to be far more productive than Freeman, who was expected to be great after being a third-round pick last year but wound up being outplayed by an undrafted running back.
