The news that Todd Gurley looks set to be on the field in Week 14 will be a delight to his fantasy football managers. With Gurley active, can he produce a matchup winning performance for fantasy teams everywhere, or are we set for disappointment?
Todd Gurley’s knee injury has been a cause for concern for fantasy managers
At this point, the words “Todd, Gurley, and knee” are somewhat synonymous with each other. Gurley’s knees have been a constant concern for fantasy managers over the past few seasons. However, despite his deteriorating knees, Gurley has missed just eight games in his career.
It looked like his knee injury would have him heading to a game-time decision on Sunday, before the Falcons removed him from their gameday injury report on Friday. Gurley had been limited at practice this week before registering a “did not participate” on Friday. However, the Friday absence was a scheduled rest day, and any fears of it being more were cleared when the injury report was released.
What does that mean for Todd Gurley and Brian Hill in fantasy?
Reading between the lines of the injury report, Gurley is set to return to his normal role in Week 14. Gurley had seen double-digit carries in the first nine games of the season. However, he saw just 16 combined carries in the two games against the Saints, missing the one in between.
The Falcons have no reason to protect Gurley in these games. The RB is on a one-year deal, so the Falcons have no investment tied up in the 26-year-old. Therefore, expect to see Gurley back over 10 carries again this week.
In his absence, Brian Hill stepped up to carry the ball 13 times against the Raiders in Week 12. Hill has only seen double-digit carries twice in 11 games that Gurley has been active. Therefore, it is unlikely he sees a high volume in Week 14. Realistically, the only hope is that he finds the end zone, something he has not done since Week 3.
Todd Gurley has had an up and down season for fantasy managers
The nicest way to phrase this season for Gurley is a mixed one. From a fantasy perspective, Todd Gurley enters Week 14 as the RB17, having been drafted as the 15th RB off the board. He has scored double-digits in fantasy points seven times in 11 games, going over 20 fantasy points twice.
In terms of his on the field performance, he is on pace for around 850 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. His yards per attempt was only lower in 2016 (3.2) than it is in 2020 (3.6). Meanwhile, his role in the receiving game is set to be worse than any year since his rookie season.
Todd Gurley has been fine, but nothing more
Pro Football Network’s fantasy metrics shine some more light on Gurley’s performance. His Consistency Score of 4.06 ranks 26th, below the likes of Miles Sanders, David Johnson, and D’Andre Swift. Meanwhile, his Fantasy Points Differential (1%) tells us Gurley has performed exactly how we would expect given his touches, but nothing more.
While terrible would be unfair, his performance in 2020 has certainly been uninspiring. If you drafted Gurley, chances are you are satisfied, but not exactly jumping for joy. Now that could still all change in the next three weeks. If Todd Gurley can lead your team to the fantasy championship, all will be forgiven.
Todd Gurley has shone in the red zone
The best way to boost a running backs fantasy value is red zone carries. Gurley has been utterly dominant on that front, with 50 of the Falcons’ 66 red zone carries. He has turned those carries into eight touchdowns, and frankly, it has saved his fantasy season. Hopefully, he can find the end zone more in Week 14.
Should you be looking to start or sit Todd Gurley in Week 14?
The last two games have been a disaster for Todd Gurley and his fantasy managers. In PPR formats, Gurley has totaled 6.9 fantasy points. That is less than he has scored in every game, bar Week 2 (6.1).
However, there is a mitigating factor. The Saints defense is one of the best against the run game in the league. In terms of Defensive Points Allowed Consistency Score (D-PAC), they are the toughest matchup for a fantasy running back. Therefore, it is hardly surprising that Gurley has struggled these past two weeks. The key question now is; ware things about to get better?
The Los Angeles Chargers are an easier matchup than the New Orleans Saints
While the Saints are the toughest matchup for running backs, according to D-PAC, the Chargers are the ninth-best matchup. While they may not be the cakewalk that the Buffalo Bills or Houston Texans are, they do allow 18 fantasy points per game to the RB position.
In Week 12, the Buffalo Bill pairing of Devin Singletary (11-for-82) and Zack Moss (9-for-59) had big games. In Week 13, the Patriots running backs combined for 119 yards on 27 carries. On the season, the Chargers are allowing the fourth-most yards per attempt at 4.9.
With wide receiver Julio Jones out, could we see Todd Gurley get more work in the passing game? The Chargers are allowing 7.7 targets (third-most), 5.9 receptions (sixth-most), and 35.2 receiving yards (19th) per game to the RB position. In Week 5, when Julio Jones was absent, Gurley saw five targets, the joint-most he has seen all season.
Through nine weeks, Gurley had nine rushing touchdowns. He has been shut out for the past two games, hurting his fantasy output. However, if Gurley is healthy coming off last week’s loss to the Saints, he could be fantasy relevant this week simply through volume alone. Although a nice matchup with the Chargers, boosted by the potential of some passing game work, certainly makes Todd Gurley an interesting Week 14 fantasy option.
Want more fantasy football analysis and news?
Be sure to follow us on Twitter: @PFN365 to stay up to date with all things around the NFL and the 2020 fantasy football season. Also, continue to visit Pro Football Network for NFL news and in-depth analysis while also seeing our fantasy football section for more coverage and up-to-date rankings.
